[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[peterward]

and what has the world done precisely to deter him annexing areas of a free country ?
China, India look away and...
Oh, we the west have sent weapons and logistics, but how has this stopped Putin, nope nothing, he is even undertaking sabotage, without reprisals or punishment that will hurt him, he is laughing his feckin socks off at the west, I am afraid.

If I was Ukrainian, I would be looking around, throwing my arms up in the air and ask, when just when are you going to stop this man, and then put my tin hat on and get back on with it, wondering all the time if I and the Ukraine are expendable to the west.

I wouldnt worry too much about that, theres far to much now invested by all parties to back down. Putin cannot and will not win, its just a case of how many he takes down with him.

He has one path only, escalation and bluff in the hopes he can at some point sue for peace or get west to back down, but the security threat now of Putin is way to high to allow that to happen imho, there is no peace or return to any type of normal with him as Russian president, and far too much instability in the world if he can somehow get away with all hes done.

So I do expect that NATO/west will do all it takes to ensure he is beaten whilst trying as best as possible to avoid un-neccessary escalation.

at the end of the day Putin did all of this, he's a dangerous, murderous fascist, thats dragged his country into this mess and murdered 10's of thousands, all for his delusions of a restored russian empire. He's a fanatic and maybe he would be willing to nuke the west as his army collapses, but dont expect all those around him to be willing to die for a losing dictator and his lost delusions.

I dont personally think the people will rise up in sufficient numbers, but the cost/benefit ratio for those who keep him in power is lessening by the day, they all love their corrupt lives, boats and villas, theyre not islamic state and all willing to die.

Putin will keep escalating and trying to bluff the pot with a 4 7 off suit, as long as the west keeps the pressure and military support and stays at the table without folding, he will lose.

 

[schmunk]

Abrahmovic for President

 

[The Clamp]

I believe there is only one way this is headed now. Europe is going to declare war on Russia. It’s inevitable.

 

[SeagullinExile]

I believe there is only one way this is headed now. Europe is going to declare war on Russia. It’s inevitable.

NATO maybe. But the EU? No chance. Now way will all the states agree to that, not a chance.

 

[crookie]

Lyman perhaps close to falling, how much territory can they retake before winter sets in ? Hopefully a decent chunk of the Donbas, and Kherson

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/worl...sedgntp&cvid=d77e554c66c14285810bd7ecf1ab8d3b

 

[Triggaaar]

Unfortunately, it does seem that perhaps Russia will keep these areas, as it did Crimea.

Things are very different this time round - Ukraine is having a lot more support and success fighting back and taking back land.

 

[Triggaaar]

I believe there is only one way this is headed now. Europe is going to declare war on Russia. It’s inevitable.

Care to place a bet on that?

 

[Uter]

I think it's increasingly hard to see anything other than a catastrophic defeat for Russian armed forces as long as Putin is at the helm.

They have lost a vast amount of armour, equivalent to the size of several western armies combined. The website Oryx has documented almost 6500 pieces of equipment being lost by Russia so far. And these are just the ones for which there exists photographic evidence. Make no mistake, this is a huge number. They are having to cover their losses with more outdated equipment, and when that is exhausted what then? They don't have a limitless supply of tanks and the like.

Additionally the manpower situation is patently desperate for them; recruiting prisoners and recalling reservists who have no appetite for a fight.

The Ukrainians on the other hand can plug much of their hardware losses with captured Russian vehicles and Western donations. Plus they have a big pool of motivated personnel to draw upon.

The obvious move for the Ukrainians would be to drive to the Black sea and split the Russian forces in two. Faced with HIMARs picking off numerous targets with fantastic accuracy the Russians may be eventually powerless to stop such a move no matter how predictable. If that happens then it's hard to envisage the western Russian forces holding out for long.

In some ways the situation reminds me of Normandy in 1944. Back then there was seemingly a stalemate for some time in terms of territory, but this disguised the fact the Germans were suffering unsustainable losses whereas the Allies could maintain their offensive capabilities. Once the dam broke there followed a very rapid advance.

 

[Eric the meek]

General Petraeus: Putin is desperate and in an irreversible situation.

'A rocket from an MLRS is so precise, it can land on a dinner table'.
'Russian forces are going to lose the vast majority if not all the territory they have gained since 24 February'.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ndxe9z_ru4

 

[beorhthelm]

making enemies in the provinces. not a big deal on its own, but if they start murmur of independence, how does Putin respond?

[tweet]1575570319104184321[/tweet]

 

[beorhthelm]

secondary effects you dont think of - all the people conscripted or leaving are people not available to do regular work.

[tweet]1575351579426922496[/tweet]

 

[Weststander]

Unfortunately, it does seem that perhaps Russia will keep these areas, as it did Crimea. Just this time Ukraine will join Nato and huge amounts of Nato forces will have to sit on the borders. Aswell as the borders of (joining) Sweden and Finland. Putin will claim victory even though he has messed up badly. Hope it doesn't work out this way though of course.

Western military superiority and Ukrainian resilience is steadily destroying the Russian war machine. Their hardware losses in just 7 months are astonishing. They’re now too scared to fly over most of Ukraine as even better weapons are delivered.

They won’t keep the stolen areas, the West and the UN are backing Ukraine every step of the way.

Putin, it was obvious a couple of weeks ago what he was trying to do, lying that the 4 oblasts are part of Russia …. then any incursions, he uses nuclear weapons on western Europe, he says. He’s trying to save face. He spent years saying that Ukraine doesn’t exist as a state. On February 24th Putin was confident that it would all shortly be part of a greater Russia. He lost that. Now he’s scrambling around obsessing with the eastern territories, his complete fascist legacy depends on it.

 

[sparkie]

I think it's increasingly hard to see anything other than a catastrophic defeat for Russian armed forces as long as Putin is at the helm.

They have lost a vast amount of armour, equivalent to the size of several western armies combined. The website Oryx has documented almost 6500 pieces of equipment being lost by Russia so far. And these are just the ones for which there exists photographic evidence. Make no mistake, this is a huge number. They are having to cover their losses with more outdated equipment, and when that is exhausted what then? They don't have a limitless supply of tanks and the like.

Additionally the manpower situation is patently desperate for them; recruiting prisoners and recalling reservists who have no appetite for a fight.

The Ukrainians on the other hand can plug much of their hardware losses with captured Russian vehicles and Western donations. Plus they have a big pool of motivated personnel to draw upon.

The obvious move for the Ukrainians would be to drive to the Black sea and split the Russian forces in two. Faced with HIMARs picking off numerous targets with fantastic accuracy the Russians may be eventually powerless to stop such a move no matter how predictable. If that happens then it's hard to envisage the western Russian forces holding out for long.

In some ways the situation reminds me of Normandy in 1944. Back then there was seemingly a stalemate for some time in terms of territory, but this disguised the fact the Germans were suffering unsustainable losses whereas the Allies could maintain their offensive capabilities. Once the dam broke there followed a very rapid advance.

You know what ?

Sh*g Putin.
His problem.

 

[sparkie]

General Petraeus: Putin is desperate and in an irreversible situation.

'A rocket from an MLRS is so precise, it can land on a dinner table'.
'Russian forces are going to lose the vast majority if not all the territory they have gained since 24 February'.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ndxe9z_ru4

I like this.

Shag Putin.

What a "winker", eh ?

 

[GT49er]

You know what ?

Sh*g Putin.
His problem.

Yeugh! I trust that is not going to become compulsory?

 

[vegster]

We could be entering an Endgame in as little as the next 48 hours. Putin is set to " welcome " the regions of Ukraine that voted to rejoins Russia .....which could lead to the use of Tactical Nuclear Weapons being dropped on the advancing Ukrainian army...this might well trigger a response from NATO/US including a decapitation of Russian leadership... ie Mr Putin being personally targeted by a bomb, missile or an assassin.

Dangerous times.

 

[Weststander]

We could be entering an Endgame in as little as the next 48 hours. Putin is set to " welcome " the regions of Ukraine that voted to rejoins Russia .....which could lead to the use of Tactical Nuclear Weapons being dropped on the advancing Ukrainian army...this might well trigger a response from NATO/US including a decapitation of Russian leadership... ie Mr Putin being personally targeted by a bomb, missile or an assassin.

Dangerous times.

Yes, worrying times too, like any terrorist Putin wants us to be unsettled, scared more than any possible future act. Hoping that European people turn on their governments and cave in to him.

These are not precise weapons that can surgically just wipe out a Ukrainian unit. Instead each is a mini Hiroshima, laying waste an extended area for decades, anyone who survives including nearby Putin supporters and his military in its wake, then dying a slow death to Radiation Sickness.

Tactical nuclear weapons are substantially more destructive than their conventional counterparts even at the same explosive energy. Nuclear explosions are more powerful by factors of 10 million to 100 million than conventional explosions.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/limited-tactical-nuclear-weapons-would-be-catastrophic/
A thermonuclear explosion of any size possesses overwhelming destructive power. Even a “small-yield” nuclear weapon (0.3 kilotons) would produce damage far beyond that of a conventional explosive. (For a graphic depiction, the interactive site NUKEMAP, created by nuclear historian Alexander Wellerstein, allows you to simulate the effects of a nuclear explosion of any size anywhere on the planet.) It would also cause all the horrors of Hiroshima, albeit on a smaller scale. A tactical nuclear weapon would produce a fireball, shock waves, and deadly radiation that would cause long-term health damage in survivors. Radioactive fallout would contaminate air, soil, water and the food supply.

The US, now Poland have made it clear that their use would have “catastrophic consequences for Russia”.

 

[peterward]

Yes, worrying times too, like any terrorist Putin wants us to be unsettled, scared more than any possible future act. Hoping that European people turn on their governments and cave in to him.

These are not precise weapons that can surgically just wipe out a Ukrainian unit. Instead each is a mini Hiroshima, laying waste an extended area for decades, anyone who survives including nearby Putin supporters and his military in its wake, then dying a slow death to Radiation Sickness.

Tactical nuclear weapons are substantially more destructive than their conventional counterparts even at the same explosive energy. Nuclear explosions are more powerful by factors of 10 million to 100 million than conventional explosions.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/limited-tactical-nuclear-weapons-would-be-catastrophic/
A thermonuclear explosion of any size possesses overwhelming destructive power. Even a “small-yield” nuclear weapon (0.3 kilotons) would produce damage far beyond that of a conventional explosive. (For a graphic depiction, the interactive site NUKEMAP, created by nuclear historian Alexander Wellerstein, allows you to simulate the effects of a nuclear explosion of any size anywhere on the planet.) It would also cause all the horrors of Hiroshima, albeit on a smaller scale. A tactical nuclear weapon would produce a fireball, shock waves, and deadly radiation that would cause long-term health damage in survivors. Radioactive fallout would contaminate air, soil, water and the food supply.

The US, now Poland have made it clear that their use would have “catastrophic consequences for Russia”.

These two twitter threads, very interesting on the nuclear threats.

[tweet]1574290665390981121[/tweet]

[tweet]1574668469676937216[/tweet]

 

[happypig]

These two twitter threads, very interesting on the nuclear threats.

[tweet]1574290665390981121[/tweet]

[tweet]1574668469676937216[/tweet]

One could argue that WW2 was won with the dropping of the two atomic bombs, forcing Japan to accept they were beaten and that they had to surrender, the alternative being a protracted campaign which they would still lose but with so many more casualties.

With nuclear weapons being held by both sides (USA/Russia) the dynamic is totally different.

 

[The Clamp]

Putin makes ready for imminent annexation of Ukraine territories. This could be the escalation that takes Europe and NATO into WW3. There will be a response to this.