[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Eric the meek]

He isn’t. He was simply pointing out how nuclear deterrence works. Russia is constrained by the threat of Western intervention and they know it. Hence this;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62952641

If Luhansk is next then this war is moving decisively in Ukraine’s favour.

I read that article this morning. See this from Zelensky:

'In his nightly address late on Sunday, President Zelensky said that recent days may have looked like a lull of sorts: "But there will be no lull. There is preparation for the next series... For Ukraine must be free. All of it."

Assuming this continues to happen, then Russia's reaction will be a portent of things to come. If it is able to, Russia will want to stem the counter offensives by Ukraine. But is it able to? Does it have the troops, equipment, logistics? I think Russia is getting weaker and weaker by the day.

 

[Eric the meek]

I worry that he has.

Open criticism of the military being allowed in Russian media, calls for outright war. Seems very odd, unless there is a degree of orchestration.

If Russia wanted to flatten Ukraine it could.

But there are also calls for the war to end, with at least one pundit saying Russia cannot win this war. Have you only seen the sabre-rattlers, and not the moderates?

 

[essbee1]

But there are also calls for the war to end, with at least one pundit saying Russia cannot win this war. Have you only seen the sabre-rattlers, and not the moderates?

I don't think Ukraine would bother with peace talks now. They're on a roll and would see no reason to talk.

 

[Hugo Rune]

I don't think Ukraine would bother with peace talks now. They're on a roll and would see no reason to talk.

I wonder if Zelensky will be eyeing the Crimea eventually?

 

[essbee1]

I wonder if Zelensky will be eyeing the Crimea eventually?

100% yes.

 

[Triggaaar]

I worry that he has.

Open criticism of the military being allowed in Russian media, calls for outright war. Seems very odd, unless there is a degree of orchestration.

If Russia wanted to flatten Ukraine it could.

And if the UK wanted to flatten Russia, it could. But in both cases, at what cost? I see no evidence that Russia could flatten Ukraine without the use of nuclear weapons, and I don't see using nuclear weapons as a positive move for Russia.

 

[SeagullinExile]

And if the UK wanted to flatten Russia, it could. But in both cases, at what cost? I see no evidence that Russia could flatten Ukraine without the use of nuclear weapons, and I don't see using nuclear weapons as a positive move for Russia.

I think you’re over estimating UK power tbh. Russia has 6000 nuclear warheads compared to our 250. Push Russia into a corner and there’s no telling what they might do.

 

[Weststander]

I think you’re over estimating UK power tbh. Russia has 6000 nuclear warheads compared to our 250. Push Russia into a corner and there’s no telling what they might do.

The UK could destroy every Russian city, effectively turning it into a third world wasteland forever. Once elderly Putin could leave his shelter months later, he’d view a country no longer a player, just radioactive Taiga.

Their superior number of warheads would do the same to these Isles.

When we get into the 100’s of warheads each, no one has the upper hand.

One way or another the democratic world is determined simply that Ukraine gets all its sovereign territory back. Then dealing with the war criminals who are carrying out genocide.

The world isn’t shirking its responsibilities just because Putin has a tendency to murder, use radioactive/chemical/biological weapons, have dissenters pushed from balconies. Instead planning a future not dependent on their gas and slowly strangling Putin’s state of technology, key components and its overseas assets.

The mad dream of a Greater Russia by illegally reclaiming USSR lands gets ever more distant.

 

[SeagullinExile]

The UK could destroy every Russian city, effectively turning it into a third world wasteland forever. Once elderly Putin could leave his shelter months later, he’d view a country no longer a player, just radioactive Taiga.

Their superior number of warheads would do the same to these Isles.

When we get into the 100’s of warheads each, no one has the upper hand.

One way or another the democratic world is determined simply that Ukraine gets all its sovereign territory back. Then dealing with the war criminals who are carrying out genocide.

The world isn’t shirking its responsibilities just because Putin has a tendency to murder, use radioactive/chemical/biological weapons, have dissenters pushed from balconies. Instead planning a future not dependent on their gas and slowly strangling Putin’s state of technology, key components and its overseas assets.

The mad dream of a Greater Russia by illegally reclaiming USSR lands gets ever more distant.

Exactly why both sides will eventually have to sit down and talk. Besides, the West can’t supply weapons indefinitely. Send Russia back with it’s tail between its legs by all means, but people pushing for a complete Russian capitulation and humiliation are playing a very dangerous game.

Keep poking a cornered bear and it will eventually rip your arm off.

 

[Weststander]

Exactly why both sides will eventually have to sit down and talk. Besides, the West can’t supply weapons indefinitely. Send Russia back with it’s tail between its legs by all means, but people pushing for a complete Russian capitulation and humiliation are playing a very dangerous game.

Keep poking a cornered bear and it will eventually rip your arm off.

The Donbas and Crimea are Ukrainian, only stolen in the last 10 years. That should sort it initially.

I think Ukraine and their many powerful allies have been clever in not sending missiles into Russia. Several benefits, one keeping the Russian populace of mixed opinions.

It’s crossed my mind that Putin might order an attack, to then blame it on their enemies. A tactic of Hitler’s eg just before invading Poland.

 

[Baldseagull]

The Donbas and Crimea are Ukrainian, only stolen in the last 10 years. That should sort it initially.

I think Ukraine and their many powerful allies have been clever in not sending missiles into Russia. Several benefits, one keeping the Russian populace of mixed opinions.

It’s crossed my mind that Putin might order an attack, to then blame it on their enemies. A tactic of Hitler’s eg just before invading Poland.

There have been attacks on Russian soil, reportedly.

 

[Triggaaar]

I think you’re over estimating UK power tbh. Russia has 6000 nuclear warheads compared to our 250.

So you don't think 250 modern nuclear weapons is enough to flatten Russia? I think you're vastly underestimating just how devastating a nuclear weapon would be. And the number of nukes Russia has is irrelevant to the question of whether or not we could flatten them, which we clearly could.

Push Russia into a corner and there’s no telling what they might do.

No one is pushing them into a corner - they're not being attacked.

 

[SeagullinExile]

The Donbas and Crimea are Ukrainian, only stolen in the last 10 years. That should sort it initially.

I think Ukraine and their many powerful allies have been clever in not sending missiles into Russia. Several benefits, one keeping the Russian populace of mixed opinions.

It’s crossed my mind that Putin might order an attack, to then blame it on their enemies. A tactic of Hitler’s eg just before invading Poland.

False flag attack? Not just Hitler sadly. See Gulf of Tonkin incident!

This is still an option tbh.

 

[SeagullinExile]

So you don't think 250 modern nuclear weapons is enough to flatten Russia? I think you're vastly underestimating just how devastating a nuclear weapon would be. And the number of nukes Russia has is irrelevant to the question of whether or not we could flatten them, which we clearly could.


No one is pushing them into a corner - they're not being attacked.

My point was, Russia could literally wipe the UK off the map in 20 minutes. We couldn’t do the same to Russia, it’s just too vast.

 

[NooBHA]

My point was, Russia could literally wipe the UK off the map in 20 minutes. We couldn’t do the same to Russia, it’s just too vast.

Russia doesn't really care about most of its Republics. Most of them don't even have gas to heat their homes despite Russia selling it's Gas around the world.

You would only need to threaten the parts of Russia that it truly cares about.

It won't come to Nuclear attacks anyhow. Because despite how powerful Putin is within that country. He would be stopped because no one wants to see Civilization wiped out.

Ukraine has got to win that war otherwise we are all f#cked and everything that Europe has built in the last 70 years will be gone for the rest of our lifetimes.

 

[NooBHA]

Exactly why both sides will eventually have to sit down and talk. Besides, the West can’t supply weapons indefinitely. Send Russia back with it’s tail between its legs by all means, but people pushing for a complete Russian capitulation and humiliation are playing a very dangerous game.

Keep poking a cornered bear and it will eventually rip your arm off.

Ukraine won't negotiate now. Russia wants the whole of the Black Sea Coast with road and rail access to it. That's why they initially decided to try and control the whole country because they would control the part the really want. That's why they took Crimean Peninsula first.

Despite being so vast. Russia geographically is in a terrible position for exporting it's oil and gas. It needs Ukraine to pipe it's gas to Western countries more easily. And it needs access to the black sea to ship it's oil to other parts of the world.

All its other ports are in the north and far east and they freeze over in the winter. So geographically it is in a terrible position despite being so vast.

It thought it could control the Ukrainian Government but after " Maidan " in 2014 it realised that the Ukrainian people wouldn't put up with Kremlin Control. So they had to conduct some sort of war to try and take control.

However, it underestimated how Europe and America would support Ukraine.

I think that COVID probably saved Ukraine because if Putin has attacked Ukraine 2 or 3 years ago then Trump would never have supported Ukraine. COVID made that impossible for Russia to do that back then.

 

[Weststander]

My point was, Russia could literally wipe the UK off the map in 20 minutes. We couldn’t do the same to Russia, it’s just too vast.

Without these cities and a few naval bases, Russia ceases to exist in all but name.



Hopefully even Putin would never want to end the empire, forever.

 

[sparkie]

[Tweet]1571990538827755522[/Tweet]

 

[aolstudios]

No one is pushing them into a corner - they're not being attacked.[/QUOTE]

Well, exactly. Trying to stop Russia running riot, in a genocidal invasion of a democratic sovereign nation is not 'pushing them into a corner', ffs

 

[The Clamp]

Nobody is going to be negotiating with Putin. For several reasons.

He’s a murdering ******* who has committed war crimes.

He does not keep his word nor abide by resolutions.

He regards negotiation as weakness. Putin probes and explores weakness and then attacks. NATO troops should have massed on all its Russian borders as soon as Putin started placing troops on the Ukrainian border. He attacked because nobody did anything to stop him.