[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[dazzer6666]

EU Parliament special session live on BBC News now.......

 

[WhingForPresident]

Been passed over to multiple different parts of the Home Office on the phone this morning in trying to get my in-laws here- totally unhelpful, bordering on obstructive, and nobody has a clue what's going on. Time to see if my MP is as useless as I assumed she is...

 

[dazzer6666]

[tweet]1498621337702703106[/tweet]

 

[hans kraay fan club]

Been passed over to multiple different parts of the Home Office on the phone this morning in trying to get my in-laws here- totally unhelpful, bordering on obstructive, and nobody has a clue what's going on. Time to see if my MP is as useless as I assumed she is...

Wishing you (and everyone else in the same situation) the very best of luck.

 

[Albion in the north]

Has anyone got any idea what Putin's end-game is here? Assuming they "win" - they'll have lost thousands of troops and millions of roubles worth of equipment to achieve that, then half their military will need to be in and around Ukraine to prop up some puppet government, yet their economy (which is only the size of Spain's but with 3.5 times the population) is already going to be crippled as these sanctions bite deeper. Even if we take at face value their argument that they are worried about having a NATO state on their border, it doesn't really wash, because they already have NATO states on their border as Kaliningrad borders Poland and Latvia, and Latvia also borders the rest of Russia.

I am just baffled as to what they possibly expect to achieve. The humanitarian cost will go far beyond the poor people of Ukraine - every day Russians are already being deeply affected too.

My take on it is this.
He has invaded Ukraine under the premise of preventing a genocide of Russians in the Luhansk and Donbass regions. His stated aim is to "De Nazify and Demilitarize" the country and to remove the "drug addicts and Neo Nazis" that run the country.
He needs to save face with the Russian people. I think what he is aiming to do now is surround and bombard the major cities and starve them of essentials. He will try to erode the Ukrainian armed forces and remove Zelensky from power, putting in a more Moscow friendly leader. Then he can tell the Russian people that he has achieved his aim and that he is the saviour of Russian people once again. What happens after that, who knows?
For all of the bravery of the Ukrainian people, Molotov Cocktails are going to be of no use against artillery and air strikes. Urban warfare is of little use to him right now. The morale of the Ukrainians is high. He will try to starve them of food, medical supplies, gas and electric until their resolve has been weakened. Then his ground assault will begin in earnest.
Purely guess work but it at least gives him almost an exit stratergy from the conflict.
It will be up to western world to try to stop that from happening but without NATO intervention, and thats not going to happen, it will not be easy.

 

[Eric the meek]

Here's an article on the effect of recent sanctions on Russians:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60558731

The bottom line is......they are working.

 

[Bakero]

[tweet]1498621118076309506[/tweet]

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

My take on it is this.
He has invaded Ukraine under the premise of preventing a genocide of Russians in the Luhansk and Donbass regions. His stated aim is to "De Nazify and Demilitarize" the country and to remove the "drug addicts and Neo Nazis" that run the country.
He needs to save face with the Russian people. I think what he is aiming to do now is surround and bombard the major cities and starve them of essentials. He will try to erode the Ukrainian armed forces and remove Zelensky from power, putting in a more Moscow friendly leader. Then he can tell the Russian people that he has achieved his aim and that he is the saviour of Russian people once again. What happens after that, who knows?
For all of the bravery of the Ukrainian people, Molotov Cocktails are going to be of no use against artillery and air strikes. Urban warfare is of little use to him right now. The morale of the Ukrainians is high. He will try to starve them of food, medical supplies, gas and electric until their resolve has been weakened. Then his ground assault will begin in earnest.
Purely guess work but it at least gives him almost an exit stratergy from the conflict.
It will be up to western world to try to stop that from happening but without NATO intervention, and thats not going to happen, it will not be easy.

When the vast majority are willing to take on tanks Molotov Cocktails then any puppet government is doomed to failure. It will have uprising after up rising. The western border is very porous so fighters will be moving in and out at will. Whether he takes the cities this will last years or until Russia leave.
Fwiw I can see uprisings in Belarus as stories of atrocities start surfacing.

At the moment he has the whole world on his back and it’s showing. The Russian economy is going to go tits up, the rich Russians will start getting pissed off because their fortunes are being eroded and the long term of staying in Russia rather than the med isn’t going to sit well.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

My take on it is this.
He has invaded Ukraine under the premise of preventing a genocide of Russians in the Luhansk and Donbass regions. His stated aim is to "De Nazify and Demilitarize" the country and to remove the "drug addicts and Neo Nazis" that run the country.
He needs to save face with the Russian people. I think what he is aiming to do now is surround and bombard the major cities and starve them of essentials. He will try to erode the Ukrainian armed forces and remove Zelensky from power, putting in a more Moscow friendly leader. Then he can tell the Russian people that he has achieved his aim and that he is the saviour of Russian people once again. What happens after that, who knows?
For all of the bravery of the Ukrainian people, Molotov Cocktails are going to be of no use against artillery and air strikes. Urban warfare is of little use to him right now. The morale of the Ukrainians is high. He will try to starve them of food, medical supplies, gas and electric until their resolve has been weakened. Then his ground assault will begin in earnest.
Purely guess work but it at least gives him almost an exit stratergy from the conflict.
It will be up to western world to try to stop that from happening but without NATO intervention, and thats not going to happen, it will not be easy.

The next phase will be the logistics of the west getting the Ukrainians those supplies

 

[Garry Nelson's Left Foot]

Been passed over to multiple different parts of the Home Office on the phone this morning in trying to get my in-laws here- totally unhelpful, bordering on obstructive, and nobody has a clue what's going on. Time to see if my MP is as useless as I assumed she is...

Good luck.

 

[Eric the meek]

[tweet]1498621337702703106[/tweet]

Powerful stuff for those of us who are collegiate and listen to the views of others.

From past experience, Lavrov and Putin will simply blame it on misinformation from the west.

 

[Surf's Up]

Russia/Putin has been forcibly re-locating significant numbers of the ethnic Russian speaking population from Russia into their neighbouring, ex USSR, states (eg Crimea, the Baltic states, Belarus, Ukraine) for years with just this military intervention in mind with the justification being to save ethnic Russians in living in hostile neighbouring countries when their governments turn against Moscow (Belarus being the exception). Putin has been playing a very patient long game, using the naivety of the West and their overwhelming need for gas and oil too fuel their economies to massively fund and increase the strength of the Russian military, getting ready to gradually re-take countries formerly members of his beloved USSR. The only slight problem for him with this plan has been these countries membership of NATO which leaves him with the dilemma of whether or not to start World War III in pursuit of his overall goal of re-creating the USSR.

 

[Commander]

[tweet]1498621118076309506[/tweet]

I think that's the first time I've ever seen him actually answer a direct question with a direct answer.

Boris must wonder what the hell has happened over the last couple of year. Of all the times to finally get your wish of being in charge, you pick a time when the whole ****ing world is falling to pieces.

 

[Eric the meek]

'We will bring about the collapse of the Russian economy'

On the BBC now:

'https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60557077'

'French finance minister Bruno Le Maire gave a stark warning to Moscow if Russia continues its war.

"We will bring about the collapse of the Russian economy," he told a French broadcaster. "The economic and financial balance of power is totally in favour of the European Union which is in the process of discovering its own economic power.'

 

[Albion in the north]

When the vast majority are willing to take on tanks Molotov Cocktails then any puppet government is doomed to failure. It will have uprising after up rising. The western border is very porous so fighters will be moving in and out at will. Whether he takes the cities this will last years or until Russia leave.
Fwiw I can see uprisings in Belarus as stories of atrocities start surfacing.

At the moment he has the whole world on his back and it’s showing. The Russian economy is going to go tits up, the rich Russians will start getting pissed off because their fortunes are being eroded and the long term of staying in Russia rather than the med isn’t going to sit well.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Of course, but he needs that exit stratergy or we are just backing him into a corner and thats the worst thing we can do. The best outcome is that someone from within gives him that permanent exit stratergy. But that wasnt the question that was being asked.
Putin is as far removed from reality as is possible. He isolated himself for the last 2 years over his fear of catching Covid and is surrounded by his guards who will also be fiercely loyal and shielded from the truth. He is so out of touch with his own citizens.
Its really a question of which long game wins. Putins or Ours.

 

[Titanic]

Isn't that massive convoy a sitting duck for missile / drone strikes? Do Ukraine not have that sort of weaponry?

 

[portslade seagull]

[tweet]1498621118076309506[/tweet]

We would do a lot with our 30 planes and would be near enough exterminated if he is so desperate to use a nuclear option.
Putin is probably hoping this happens so he can then escalate and take back what he believes are free democracies that have been stolen from him. He certainly doesn't have any scruples when it comes to those poor civilians being targeted in the major cities

 

[Eric the meek]

Of course, but he needs that exit stratergy or we are just backing him into a corner and thats the worst thing we can do. The best outcome is that someone from within gives him that permanent exit stratergy. But that wasnt the question that was being asked.
Putin is as far removed from reality as is possible. He isolated himself for the last 2 years over his fear of catching Covid and is surrounded by his guards who will also be fiercely loyal and shielded from the truth. He is so out of touch with his own citizens.
Its really a question of which long game wins. Putins or Ours.

My money's on Ursula. Actually, it is. I used to invest a bit in Russia, just for a laugh.

Who in their right mind, would go near a Russian company now? The whole economy is finished.

Invest in wheelbarrows Dave. There are 144 million customers in Russia who will need one to transport their rubles.

 

[raymondo]

But is this true?

I doubt it - it'll be lies. String him up, people.

 

[portslade seagull]

Isn't that massive convoy a sitting duck for missile / drone strikes? Do Ukraine not have that sort of weaponry?

They have the Turkish drones but would guess the Russians have now warned them off from resupplying them with the bombs