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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)







raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,343
Wiltshire
I think if Putin captures the South Coast - maybe up to Crimea or maybe the full coast that is his minimum "face save win".

Not sure if (a) he'll manage it (b) the Ukrainians will accept that as "war over".

A lot of unknowns.

a) i think he'll manage it. b) Ukraine won't accept it (unless on their knees even more).

I think a) because Russian troops seem to have control now of Berdyansk (at least the central administrative area). It looks as if Ukrainian army were unable to stop them (perhaps spread thinly to protect other coastal targets?). The locals are clearly angry, protesting, but there doesn't seem to be street fighting - maybe inability to organise and arm local volunteers.
If/ when Russia secure the southern coast, they can then send in more hardware and experienced troops to advance on Zaporozhye. Personally, that's our family's biggest nightmare, as we have a number of relatives in/near Zap.
 




A1X

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 1, 2017
20,524
Deepest, darkest Sussex
Please don't let Putin's psychological warfare mind games get to you.

We have professionals who'll properly analyse them.

No point in worrying about what you can't control.

Oh I'm not worried for now. I worry that in the next few days if Kyiv or other Ukranian cities start to be decimated by Russian firepower then there will be increasing demands from people in the west for the likes of NATO to "do something", and what that could lead to. People driven by emotion seldom make good choices.
 






Nobby Cybergoat

Well-known member
Jul 19, 2021
8,622
BBC reporting that Ukraine pilots going to Poland to pick up EU fighter jets. They will return them to bases in Poland.

Great, but another risk of escalation
 


A1X

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 1, 2017
20,524
Deepest, darkest Sussex
Speaking of Belarus, this probably explains a lot of the current logistical issues (plus why Belarus has been so slow in reacting)

[tweet]1497994644864520206[/tweet]
 










raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,343
Wiltshire
BBC reporting that Ukraine pilots going to Poland to pick up EU fighter jets. They will return them to bases in Poland.

Great, but another risk of escalation

I fail to understand why the BBC or anyone reports these things FFS, just let them happen under the radar.
I also fail to understand why each country announces the list of weapons it's sent to Ukraine - I guess the announcement is for the home population. It would be far better to send as much as possible, say nothing, and deny if asked by a reporter. Ukraine's leadership could keep saying ( lying) that they are receiving zero support in defensive weapons.
 




raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,343
Wiltshire
A revolution in Belarus would now be the spark that starts one in Russia.

Madness for Lukashenko to send his army away.

I'm not religious but I'm praying like hell for it - the Belarussian people don't want to be part of this. I hope to god they are getting true reporting on their TV/ internet, and not via the Russian state TV.
 


Nobby Cybergoat

Well-known member
Jul 19, 2021
8,622
I fail to understand why the BBC or anyone reports these things FFS, just let them happen under the radar.
I also fail to understand why each country announces the list of weapons it's sent to Ukraine - I guess the announcement is for the home population. It would be far better to send as much as possible, say nothing, and deny if asked by a reporter. Ukraine's leadership could keep saying ( lying) that they are receiving zero support in defensive weapons.

It's a good point and to be effective, what you're suggesting would need a worldwide media information ban on Ukranian military affairs

Totally unheard of, but in these times, it could be possible to organise
 


raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,343
Wiltshire
It's a good point and to be effective, what you're suggesting would need a worldwide media information ban on Ukranian military affairs

Totally unheard of, but in these times, it could be possible to organise

Sure, very difficult I know. Most of Russia's propaganda to their people is through their state tv. I think the West could be smarter. We probably ARE telling a number of lies...but we don't see it.
 




A1X

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 1, 2017
20,524
Deepest, darkest Sussex
I hope the citizens now start a revolution and string up Lukaschenko.

It's more likely than Russia right now as they came pretty close to giving him the boot before Putin stepped in to prop him up
 




atomised

Well-known member
Mar 21, 2013
5,170
I fail to understand why the BBC or anyone reports these things FFS, just let them happen under the radar.
I also fail to understand why each country announces the list of weapons it's sent to Ukraine - I guess the announcement is for the home population. It would be far better to send as much as possible, say nothing, and deny if asked by a reporter. Ukraine's leadership could keep saying ( lying) that they are receiving zero support in defensive weapons.

The idea of Ukrainian pilots flying sorties from polish bases seems like a foolish idea but currently much of it seems based on speculation. I assume for the Polish to agree to it would require NATO backing
 


Nobby Cybergoat

Well-known member
Jul 19, 2021
8,622
Could we raise Ukraine's offer to Russian soldiers? Suppose the NATO countries made a more tempting offer.

A flight to the west, permanent resettlement, and big money to drop weapons. I don't know what sort of big money, but something tempting. Much more than Ukraine were offering. Between all countries, it probably works out as not that much and certainly cheaper than a war.

If it proved successful, it would permanently hobble Putin's Russia.

The sticking point, is of course, the families left behind.

I bet some would take it though
 




heathgate

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Apr 13, 2015
3,858
The idea of Ukrainian pilots flying sorties from polish bases seems like a foolish idea but currently much of it seems based on speculation. I assume for the Polish to agree to it would require NATO backing
It would automatically be determined that those sorties were NATO actions,... ergo escalation... probably not a good idea.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk
 


Simster

"the man's an arse"
Jul 7, 2003
54,947
Surrey
Has anyone got any idea what Putin's end-game is here? Assuming they "win" - they'll have lost thousands of troops and millions of roubles worth of equipment to achieve that, then half their military will need to be in and around Ukraine to prop up some puppet government, yet their economy (which is only the size of Spain's but with 3.5 times the population) is already going to be crippled as these sanctions bite deeper. Even if we take at face value their argument that they are worried about having a NATO state on their border, it doesn't really wash, because they already have NATO states on their border as Kaliningrad borders Poland and Latvia, and Latvia also borders the rest of Russia.

I am just baffled as to what they possibly expect to achieve. The humanitarian cost will go far beyond the poor people of Ukraine - every day Russians are already being deeply affected too.
 


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