[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[The Clamp]

We could it economically, to a significant degree.

If we can ween our continent off the resources Russia supplies, the nation will go bankrupt and the military capacity will greatly reduce.

Whether we will is another question

Doing it militarily? Not while they hold those warheads

Makes sense.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

look mate , thats all in the past ....this is now and this guy is a bit of a loon.....the "west" would have seen this coming, and here it is.

within the next 14 days you will have a good idea wether your family have a future or not so perhaps drop the sarcasm , it is what it is .......i've been bagging China on here and you lot have been ridiculing me , well now here we are.....!!

Not quite sure what you're talking about if i'm being truthful, but i'm happy to have a £100 bet with you, that we won't all be annihilated in a nuclear war in the next fortnight

 

[Poojah]

I agree but he can't walk away from this claiming any type of victory.

His huge strategic mistake and murder of innocents must be seen to be a loss (to the Russian Generals and elites). State TV will of course make up rubbish.

I'm no military man, but I read his huge mistake was in his over confidence and the Ukrainians desire and ability to fight him. If you had organised a proper multi wave blitzkrieg (rather than one wave without good logistics), he would've probably succeeded.

Let him off the hook and he's the type that will brood, go away, plot, fix the errors and try all over again. He won't accept defeat, but for a strongman defeat could be the end of this dangerous loon from within.

It's a balancing act, but off ramps are fine in the esculatory stage, now he has invaded and bombed a country he must be dealt a strategic defeat.

fwiw he won't use nukes. Ukraine is non nuclear, NATO isn't fighting Russia. He's cornered himself, and letting off a lunatic loner with all sorts of paranoias and hatred of historical injustices isbt going to improve if he's let off, it will worsen and he'll become more revengeful regardless.

This has to end here strategically. He must be seen to have gambled and lost

In saying that, it's not over yet.

I certainly can’t see him using nukes in Ukraine; it’s a bit close to home if nothing else. But do you not see a scenario whereby he finds himself backed into a corner and in a fit of desperation and insanity authorises the deployment of nuclear weapons against NATO territory?

One suggestion in the BBC article earlier was that he might begin by dropping a nuke into the North Sea to destroy gas pipelines. That struck me as an interesting middle-ground - deal a major economic blow to Europe whilst demonstrating for real that he is prepared to use nuclear weapons without killing millions of people in the first instance.

Are you confident that Putin will not take such a route as a last resort? I ask as you clearly have a solid handle on things in that part of the world given your family ties.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Makes sense.

I suppose there's also a Treaty of Versailles point in this as well isn't there.

We don't want a Russia on their knees for generations, (we should have learned this lesson). What we want is an end to the violent despot and his cronies who currently occupy the Kremlin.

The Russians have had leaders in the recent past who we can deal with. Gorbachev, Yeltzin. We can't give up hope that Russia will soon be ready for a similar such leader.

 

[The Clamp]

I certainly can’t see him using nukes in Ukraine; it’s a bit close to home if nothing else. But do you not see a scenario whereby he finds himself backed into a corner and in a fit of desperation and insanity authorises the deployment of nuclear weapons against NATO territory?

One suggestion in the BBC article earlier was that he might begin by dropping a nuke into the North Sea to destroy gas pipelines. That struck me as an interesting middle-ground - deal a major economic blow to Europe whilst demonstrating for real that he is prepared to use nuclear weapons without killing millions of people in the first instance.

Are you confident that Putin will not take such a route as a last resort? I ask as you clearly have a solid handle on things in that part of the world given your family ties.

The problem is that if a nuke is detected leaving Russia, it’ll be all systems go for the rest of the world. That alone would initiate a global nuclear reaction, surely?

 

[Bry Nylon]

Once this is over do you think the West will try and get to Putin / seek to neutralise Russia a bit like we did to Germany in 1945? Could we even do that?

I don't believe the West would overtly intervene. However, I am fairly certain that well-placed people on the ground will be communicating with their sources and explaining that there remains a place for a progressive and affluent Russia in the world order - but not so long as Putin remains in power. The rest will be up to the Russians.

 

[peterward]

What a good post.

Once this is over do you think the West will try and get to Putin / seek to neutralise Russia a bit like we did to Germany in 1945? Could we even do that?

No idea mate. Trying to deliberately humiliate Russia long term is dangerous. Culture is a lot about pride and being macho.

The off ramp and loosing of the noose imho comes from steps to slowly reintegrate Russia if it moves away from lawlessness.

It can't be given anything for this reckless adventure to claim as a result.

Ukraine should commit to non nuclear on it's territory if Russia upholds it Budapest commitment and stops violating it's territory. Russia should in effect be held to what it already signed.

Ukraine cannot now demilitarise, and nor should it. Nor can Ukraine now openly agree neutrality on the back of Putin's murder. To do so would be deemed a surrender of sorts to a population being terrorised and even more wanting to join because of this. I'd personally suggest a rolling 1 year agreement, no troops near Ukraine's border no exercises on its border. If so immediately cancels deal and approves Ukraine's joining NATO signed by Russia. Russia can get what it claims ONLY if it ends all occupations and threats to Ukraines equally viable security concerns, but wording would have to be framed with Ukraine publicaly still aspiring to join etc. No NATO base but have right to work with NATO instructors and buy weapons from whomever.

It's not acceptable that an unelected despot like Lukashenko can have nukes but attacked Ukraine must demilitarise.

 

[Poojah]

The problem is that if a nuke is detected leaving Russia, it’ll be all systems go for the rest of the world. That alone would initiate a global nuclear reaction, surely?

Is a fair point. It’s obviously madness for anyone to consider using a nuke in this day and age; I just worry that madness is the order of the day in Putin’s lair.

 

[peterward]

I certainly can’t see him using nukes in Ukraine; it’s a bit close to home if nothing else. But do you not see a scenario whereby he finds himself backed into a corner and in a fit of desperation and insanity authorises the deployment of nuclear weapons against NATO territory?

One suggestion in the BBC article earlier was that he might begin by dropping a nuke into the North Sea to destroy gas pipelines. That struck me as an interesting middle-ground - deal a major economic blow to Europe whilst demonstrating for real that he is prepared to use nuclear weapons without killing millions of people in the first instance.

Are you confident that Putin will not take such a route as a last resort? I ask as you clearly have a solid handle on things in that part of the world given your family ties.

No I don't think he will do that. Right now he's totally isolated by his reckless gamble.

He's now totally dependent on Xi and China, and all suggestions are that even the Chinese are questioning their strategic partnership with Putin. Putin has all sorts of complexes and wants to change the world order. China benefits hugely and financially from the present world order. It may be pissed at NATO in the Pacific, but it's growing and will become the next superpower with this world order and stability.

Already now crippled by sanctions, Putin has gone from partner to Chinese vassal economically. They can call the shots and have all the leverage.

If he fires a nuke, he and Russia are finished. Abandoned by China and it will totally implode.

He would still also risk an automatic response if in our NATO territorial waters.

Fear based speculation.... If he's a total loon, it's irrelevant anyway. If there is an ounce of rationality at the top in Russia. No nukes will be fired. It really would be the end of Russia forever.

He's esclating, as that's always worked before. It won't with this sabre rattling

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

No idea mate. Trying to deliberately humiliate Russia long term is dangerous. Culture is a lot about pride and being macho.

The off ramp and loosing of the noose imho comes from steps to slowly reintegrate Russia if it moves away from lawlessness.

It can't be given anything for this reckless adventure to claim as a result.

Ukraine should commit to non nuclear on it's territory if Russia upholds it Budapest commitment and stops violating it's territory. Russia should in effect be held to what it already signed.

Ukraine cannot now demilitarise, and nor should it. Nor can Ukraine now openly agree neutrality on the back of Putin's murder. To do so would be deemed a surrender of sorts to a population being terrorised and even more wanting to join because of this. I'd personally suggest a rolling 1 year agreement, no troops near Ukraine's border no exercises on its border. If so immediately cancels deal and approves Ukraine's joining NATO signed by Russia. Russia can get what it claims ONLY if it ends all occupations and threats to Ukraines equally viable security concerns, but wording would have to be framed with Ukraine publicaly still aspiring to join etc. No NATO base but have right to work with NATO instructors and buy weapons from whomever.

It's not acceptable that an unelected despot like Lukashenko can have nukes but attacked Ukraine must demilitarise.

I completely agree there needs to be an off ramp for Russia, but I can't envisage how there could be an off ramp for Putin. How could he go back to his people and say there's been a success without Ukraine making completely unacceptable (to them) concessions?

And it comes down to trust as well. Even if Russia made Ukraine a tempting peace offer (like recognise Crimea and we'll leave you alone, something like that), how can any deal with Russia ever be believed?

 

[The Clamp]

If any of the top brass in Russia value any kind of future for their country, they will take Putin out.

 

[vegster]

Very good article here on the Gruaniad website , no paywall as its the Gruaniad after all....

"Why Vladimir Putin has already lost this war "

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

If any of the top brass in Russia value any kind of future for their country, they will take Putin out.

I imagine there is a high chance of this happening or him "accidentally" falling out a window

 

[The Clamp]

I imagine there is a high chance of this happening or him "accidentally" falling out a window

Would be interesting to see how they handled it and indeed when they would let the world know he’s dead.

 

[sydney]

I completely agree there needs to be an off ramp for Russia, but I can't envisage how there could be an off ramp for Putin. How could he go back to his people and say there's been a success without Ukraine making completely unacceptable (to them) concessions?

And it comes down to trust as well. Even if Russia made Ukraine a tempting peace offer (like recognise Crimea and we'll leave you alone, something like that), how can any deal with Russia ever be believed?

his people don't want war ...the guy is off his head.

 

[KZNSeagull]

BBC reporting that the Tass website has been hacked. Was showing an anti war message apparently, but now not working at all

 

[beorhthelm]

BBC reporting that the Tass website has been hacked. Was showing an anti war message apparently, but now not working at all

amusing but untrue.

 

[The Fits]

If this figure of 4500 Russian fatalities is anywhere near true it’s absolutely staggering. IIRC 7000 US soldiers died in Iraq and Afghanistan in the nearly twenty years of those wars.

 

[vegster]

BBC reporting that the Tass website has been hacked. Was showing an anti war message apparently, but now not working at all

Just looked and it's working fine now....... never looked at it before but was not surprised to see a sub-headline " Captured Ukrainian troops confirm Kiev's plans of a massive offensive in Donbass "..... surprised the Russians were not beaten back by the " Massive Force " ?

 

[peterward]

I completely agree there needs to be an off ramp for Russia, but I can't envisage how there could be an off ramp for Putin. How could he go back to his people and say there's been a success without Ukraine making completely unacceptable (to them) concessions?

And it comes down to trust as well. Even if Russia made Ukraine a tempting peace offer (like recognise Crimea and we'll leave you alone, something like that), how can any deal with Russia ever be believed?

I agree. And right now, something like ceeding Crimea is a total non starter. That would be a Puin victory, on the back of brave Ukrainian warriers dying for their land.

That could damage Zelensky more than Russian tanks. he cannot cede a milimeter of Ukrainian soil right now.