[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Eeyore]

Date for the diary:

'The Bank of Russia Board of Directors will hold its next key rate meeting on 20 December 2024. The press release on the Bank of Russia Board decision is to be published at 13.30 Moscow time.'

10.30 am our time.

Alas, I fear that such a release will not give the real picture. If it does, I wouldn't go standing near any windows if I were its author.

 

[raymondo]

Absolutely - 100%.

I just hope the American peacemakers agree. As Zelensky says 'a just and lasting peace'.


Yes, it's a bit of a Christmas list. In a year or two's time, China could be walking into Siberia, unopposed.

(Come to think of it, the last time they took a bite of Siberia in the far east, that was unopposed).

Well we know they've already taken a chunk (all?) of that river island that's rather strategic... unopposed by Russia. (IDRWIC !)

 

[raymondo]

Alas, I fear that such a release will not give the real picture. If it does, I wouldn't go standing near any windows if I were its author.

True, but I think it may help us guess at underlying realities.

 

[Bodian]

Not a casualty of the war as such (ie: it wasn't attacked), but it does seem to reflect the rather desperate measures Russia are having to go to to keep their merchant fleet sailing. Split down a seam created by recently rebuilding and welding - or 'cut and shut' in the car world.

Two Russian tankers sink in Black Sea spilling 4,300 tonnes of oil

Ukraine accuses Moscow of recklessness amid risk of ecological damage to marine environment

www.theguardian.com

 

[raymondo]

Not a casualty of the war as such (ie: it wasn't attacked), but it does seem to reflect the rather desperate measures Russia are having to go to to keep their merchant fleet sailing. Split down a seam created by recently rebuilding and welding - or 'cut and shut' in the car world.

Two Russian tankers sink in Black Sea spilling 4,300 tonnes of oil

Ukraine accuses Moscow of recklessness amid risk of ecological damage to marine environment

www.theguardian.com

I can imagine the welder saying...yeah that'll hold fine.

 

[raymondo]

 

[Sirnormangall]

I’ve finally finished reading Midnight in Moscow by John L Sullivan who was the US Ambassador to Russia at the outset of the war. He says there are four important features that are the most relevant to understanding and crafting a strategy to address Putin’s war:

1. Russia is not merely an adversary of the US - it’s a self-declared enemy and Putin believes he is at war with the US and NATO. No goodwill gesture or search for a negotiated solution by the west will change that.
2. The Russian government cannot be trusted in any context. Putin and the Kremlin are untethered from the truth and facts. Their attitude is that the truth is any story which succeeds. Trust is impossible and after so many lies and falsehoods how could anyone negotiate in good faith with Putin’s government again.
3. No matter what Putin might say he will never surrender the goal of the special military operation to subjugate Ukraine. Never. When Putin or one of his surrogates talks of negotiations and peace it should be treated as pure disinformation.
4. Putin’s removal is not necessarily the answer - though I’m not sure Sullivan clearly articulates what the answer is. He says that change has to come from within, which could take time, and in the meantime the west has to continue a policy of containment. He strongly advocates continued military support as being in the best long term interests of the US and west.

Hopefully Trump will heed these points. It’s an interesting book in which he also makes a number of comparisons with WWII, including how Germany described the invasion of Poland as a “military intervention” to protect ethnic Germans in Poland. Sounds familiar, sadly

 

[peterward]

Just read an interesting little fact that shows the folly of Putins Ukraine adventure.

"The average salary in the Russian Federation increased from 2011 to 2024.

2011 - 20952 rubles
2024 - 56724 rubles

That's a 13 year increase from $698 to $567"

 

[Mellotron]

It's mad how similar the reasons for Hitler invading Poland and Putin invading Ukraine were.

 

[Eric the meek]

More signs of economic problems are appearing.

Workers on the M12 highway have not been paid since September and are going on strike.

Fish rationing in Kamchatka. ? I blame the Japanese for overfishing.

A senator in the Duma says inflation figures are under-reported, because the government doesn't want to pay bigger pensions and pay rises to state workers.

It's all from Konstantin Samoilov. I'll post the link later.

 

[raymondo]

I’ve finally finished reading Midnight in Moscow by John L Sullivan who was the US Ambassador to Russia at the outset of the war. He says there are four important features that are the most relevant to understanding and crafting a strategy to address Putin’s war:

1. Russia is not merely an adversary of the US - it’s a self-declared enemy and Putin believes he is at war with the US and NATO. No goodwill gesture or search for a negotiated solution by the west will change that.
2. The Russian government cannot be trusted in any context. Putin and the Kremlin are untethered from the truth and facts. Their attitude is that the truth is any story which succeeds. Trust is impossible and after so many lies and falsehoods how could anyone negotiate in good faith with Putin’s government again.
3. No matter what Putin might say he will never surrender the goal of the special military operation to subjugate Ukraine. Never. When Putin or one of his surrogates talks of negotiations and peace it should be treated as pure disinformation.
4. Putin’s removal is not necessarily the answer - though I’m not sure Sullivan clearly articulates what the answer is. He says that change has to come from within, which could take time, and in the meantime the west has to continue a policy of containment. He strongly advocates continued military support as being in the best long term interests of the US and west.

Hopefully Trump will heed these points. It’s an interesting book in which he also makes a number of comparisons with WWII, including how Germany described the invasion of Poland as a “military intervention” to protect ethnic Germans in Poland. Sounds familiar, sadly

I've just watched a podcast, Rory Stewart and A Campbell with Bill Clinton. Lots of topics covered. Bill said that he worked with Putin over a number of months as Yeltsin stepped aside. It's interesting.
Bill said that in 2010 (IIRC) Putin, during a 'social' discussion, made it very clear that he didn't accept the Budapest memorandum at all and it had never been ratified by the Duma. Putin's implication was very clear: he'd try to take Ukraine one day. Clinton duly informed the US authorities.

 

[raymondo]

It's mad how similar the reasons for Hitler invading Poland and Putin invading Ukraine were.

And was the same when Russia invaded Finland back in 1919 ish. A playbook seemingly as old as the hills

 

[raymondo]

More signs of economic problems are appearing.

Workers on the M12 highway have not been paid since September and are going on strike.

Fish rationing in Kamchatka. ? I blame the Japanese for overfishing.

A senator in the Duma says inflation figures are under-reported, because the government doesn't want to pay bigger pensions and pay rises to state workers.

It's all from Konstantin Samoilov. I'll post the link later.

The west has to keep up the sanctions...

 

[Mellotron]

And was the same when Russia invaded Finland back in 1919 ish. A playbook seemingly as old as the hills

Doesn't tend to work out well for the aggressors in these situations...

 

[raymondo]

Doesn't tend to work out well for the aggressors in these situations...

So far...

 

[Eric the meek]

The Konstantin Samoilov update of crazy Russian news:

 

[raymondo]

 

[Sirnormangall]

I would imagine the outcome of the meeting will be exactly what they're told to do by the Kremlin. I have no idea what that will be, or whether it will bear any resemblance to what the best course of action would be in the face of the economic realities.

Fwiw, I think the head of the central bank, Elvira Nabiullina, is one of the good ones. She tried to resign when the war started, but her resignation was refused. I don't know if she is still with us.

Russian newspaper is predicting interest rate will go up to around 23 to 25%.

 

[Eric the meek]

Did anyone notice anything about the announcement on granting Assad asylum?
It's a < 1 minute read.

I didn't notice it myself, so you've got someone else to thank. Yes, I can't remember who it was. It could have been Konstantin, or Jake Broe.
But the gist, is that Peskov was at pains to point out that the decision to grant Assad asylum, was made by Putin alone. So he has been isolated.

When the shit hits the fan, all other people can say 'it wasn't my decision', or 'I had no choice in the matter'. This is forward planning, Kremlin style.

Putin personally granted asylum to Syria’s Assad, Kremlin confirms

The Syrian dictator fled to Moscow with his family after opposition forces took control of the capital.

www.politico.eu

 

[Triggaaar]

he also makes a number of comparisons with WWII, including how Germany described the invasion of Poland as a “military intervention” to protect ethnic Germans in Poland. Sounds familiar, sadly

Well yes, Putin wasn't imaginative enough to come up with his own story.