[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[raymondo]

Ukraine has returned six children? I didn't know Ukraine had been going round kidnapping children..

I think it's just a language misunderstanding from him. Ukraine has a research and I believe diplomatic/ legal initiative (I'm not sure of the details) and so Ukraine does all the work to make these returns happen. I think that's what he means.

 

[raymondo]

Very difficult situation in Kursk, with a considerable number of unhappy Ukrainian troops. I didn't realise that Russia has regained so much of the Kursk land from Ukraine's incursion. Neither did I realise that 1000 troops had been lost in that much earlier bridgehead attempt north of Kherson - they really don't have the numbers to make those misjudgements. Difficult and sad.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4x9gz4ylwo

 

[Triggaaar]

I watched the video, as well as the video 'Putin is set to disappear'. The removal of metadata from photos and videos featuring Putin is significant. It could be a bluff but my guess is that it isn't. Putin is about to disappear, or already has.

Here's the video from Konstantin. The relevant part is from 1:02:55.

Yeah I think that's a massive jump you're making.

The only fact we have is that the Kremlin have decided to remove metadata from videos. That's it.

It may be that sometimes Putin will be having a break or possibly having surgery. Or they may simply wish to be able to put out messages when he's not feeling well. Removing the metadata costs them nothing, but gives them room to manoeuvre when necessary.

But about to disappear, or already has? I think that's unlikely.

 

[Sirnormangall]

It's really difficult to predict. You're asking people on here to predict what will happen in Russia as it descends further into chaos. There could be a thousand, or many thousands of, scenarios that unfold. But be aware that, at any point in the process, it is likely to be worse than we think, due to the political leaders covering it up.

What I think I'm noticing is a divergence in the official story, or reasons for the economic problems. There isn't a consistency of message from the top. This suggests that there isn't agreement across the leadership, a message is not forthcoming, there are factions in play, or a power vacuum developing.

Worth keeping an eye on. Sorry if this isn't the answer you were looking for....

Thanks, yes none of us knows the answer. The extent of any civil unrest will as you say depend on the scenarios that unfold and the extent to which individuals are impacted by a deteriorating economy, casualties etc and whether Putin can keep the large population centres content. Not sure I’d be brave enough to protest and put my life on the line ( and my family) in a regime like Russia’s, which is what Putin is banking on, so I think change will have to be initiated from within the Kremlin. You make an interesting point about recent inconsistency of message - an indication that cracks are beginning to appear.

 

[Eric the meek]

Yeah I think that's a massive jump you're making.

The only fact we have is that the Kremlin have decided to remove metadata from videos. That's it.

It may be that sometimes Putin will be having a break or possibly having surgery. Or they may simply wish to be able to put out messages when he's not feeling well. Removing the metadata costs them nothing, but gives them room to manoeuvre when necessary.

But about to disappear, or already has? I think that's unlikely.

I understand your concerns. Yours is an evidence based approach, which in almost any other circumstances, I would be following just the way you are.
But I confess, in the Russia Ukraine war, there is an emotional element, or wishful thinking, in my posts. You will have to make allowances for me.

But it is good that you challenge conclusions.

That said, take a step back. Consider the pressure that Putin will be under. Unless he has balls of steel, he will have made plans for his exit, however unlikely to succeed they may be. At the very least, he will have taken steps to cut down his workload, and see his partner and sons. Or others may have planned his exit for him.
The Kremlin is pretty much a black box.

Given the background of the most extraordinary levels of deception the world has ever seen, and given the interesting actions in wiping the metadata, which you say is to give them room to manoeuvre later, the first question to ask, is why do it now? Why has it taken them 2 years 9 months of war to get round to it? Just when the economy is tanking, the nemesis of Trump's peace talks loom on the horizon, and the Kremlin elite are watching him like hawks?

I don't believe this is a coincidence. I don't.

 

[Triggaaar]

Given the background of the most extraordinary levels of deception the world has ever seen, and given the interesting actions in wiping the metadata, which you say is to give them room to manoeuvre later, the first question to ask, is why do it now? Why has it taken them 2 years 9 months of war to get round to it?

At the start of the war they didn't even think it was a war, they thought it would be over quickly. So it certainly wasn't going to start then, it didn't need to. Then when it didn't all end quickly they had a lot on their plate, both on the battle field and also shutting down any free press. Also, AI has improved a lot recently, so now's the time.

There's no reason to believe Putin has disappeared or is about to. Certainly not before Trump's gambit.