[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[GT49er]

The Russian soldiers would have to leave Ukraine as a non-negotiable pre-condition for aid.

......... and the return of the stolen children.

 

[Eric the meek]

That's interesting, didn't know he was Tuvan. So, "I've made it to the elite and you're never gonna get there".

Latest from Paul Warburg (I'm part way through) is all about their economy and how it looks supper rosy to many citizens at the moment (flush with sign up and death benefits from the military). Maybe an example of catastrophe theory soon to happen

I think Shoigu is pretty much the exception. The only other ethnic person in a high position I can think of is Kadyrov. Russians make up the majority of the population anyway.

Can you post the Warburg video please?
I've always thought the economy is key. The problem is we can only see snapshots, glimpses, reports, anecdotes. Will it drag on or is there a cliff that we can't see here in the west, but perhaps the Russian elites can?

Edit: I've found the Paul Warburg video.
Edit: The deliberate policy to delay recruitment bonuses, soldiers' salaries and death benefits. Christ almighty.

 

[Triggaaar]

More economics for you:

 

[ukpolska]

For a bit of fun I’ve just tried to open a Ruble account on my Revolut account but surprisingly it’s one of the few currencies they don’t offer ( their systems probably don’t have the capacity to keep up with it!)

I am not surprised by this as if my memory serves me well it was developed by a British-Ukrainian software engineer and at the start of the conflict they were offering a lot of help to Ukrainian people here in Poland.

 

[Eric the meek]

More economics for you:

Blimey. According to him, if the exchange rate hits even the 1 Rub = 0.0083 USD, it's game over. If think he said even if it hits the 80s (0.0089999) it's game over.
Unfortunately, he didn't elaborate on what 'game over' would elicit.

@raymondo, I remember you saying something about 0.8 of a cent. Have you been taking a sneaky look at this monetary economist's videos?

 

[Triggaaar]

Blimey. According to him, if the exchange rate hits even the 1 Rub = 0.0083 USD, it's game over. If think he said even if it hits the 80s (0.0089999) it's game over.
Unfortunately, he didn't elaborate on what 'game over' would elicit.

Pretty sure he meant that the Russian economy would collapse (like it did in the 90s) to the extent that internal issues would trump continuing a war outside its borders (as happened with the Roman Empire).

Whether he's right on the figures, I have no idea, but this is the general point that a few of us have been making - if the Russian economy does collapse, and they can't afford to pay their troops, then surely the war effort collapses too?

I wonder how China feel about it all? Will they be fine with Russia losing, and as they collapse internally, China getting old land back? Or do they want to spend big to try and help Russia win?

 

[Triggaaar]

For a bit of fun I’ve just tried to open a Ruble account on my Revolut account but surprisingly it’s one of the few currencies they don’t offer ( their systems probably don’t have the capacity to keep up with it!)

When I logged onto HSBC, it gave me the note that they would no longer allow transactions linked to rubles. Seemed a bit weird after 2.5 years.

 

[Eric the meek]

Pretty sure he meant that the Russian economy would collapse (like it did in the 90s) to the extent that internal issues would trump continuing a war outside its borders (as happened with the Roman Empire).

Whether he's right on the figures, I have no idea, but this is the general point that a few of us have been making - if the Russian economy does collapse, and they can't afford to pay their troops, then surely the war effort collapses too?

I wonder how China feel about it all? Will they be fine with Russia losing, and as they collapse internally, China getting old land back? Or do they want to spend big to try and help Russia win?

Ah yes. I think I might have tuned out a bit at the beginning - sorry. I was watching the cars drive behind him.

Regarding paying troops, yes, but maybe not immediately. Paul Warburg details how Russia is withholding payments to soldiers (recruitment bonuses, salaries and yes, death benefits for as long as possible), to gain interest on that money to keep the show on the road. I wouldn't put it past them to carry on the war a short while, even after the economy has collapsed.

I hope and believe that China are playing a long game to get their land back. There's not much point in continuing to support a failing Russia, with the risk of secondary sanctions. Western markets are far more valuable than Russia's trade.

 

[Triggaaar]

Regarding paying troops, yes, but maybe not immediately. Paul Warburg details how Russia is withholding payments to soldiers (recruitment bonuses, salaries and yes, death benefits for as long as possible), to gain interest on that money to keep the show on the road.

Yes I've seen that video. But at some point the soldiers will get wise to the fact that they're not getting paid, and it's difficult to be motivated when everyone is dying, you're not getting paid, and it's all for nothing anyway.

I hope and believe that China are playing a long game to get their land back. There's not much point in continuing to support a failing Russia, with the risk of secondary sanctions. Western markets are far more valuable than Russia's trade.

I hope so. Either way I'm sure they'll be expecting 'their' land back, either because Russia collapses or because it's part of a deal to help Russia.

 

[Eric the meek]

Some good detail on what Russia needs to import (this was originally posted on the Georginio Rutter thread):

 

[raymondo]

Blimey. According to him, if the exchange rate hits even the 1 Rub = 0.0083 USD, it's game over. If think he said even if it hits the 80s (0.0089999) it's game over.
Unfortunately, he didn't elaborate on what 'game over' would elicit.

@raymondo, I remember you saying something about 0.8 of a cent. Have you been taking a sneaky look at this monetary economist's videos?

Nah...0.8 of a cent just felt like a decent, round, psychological final tipping point to me

 

[raymondo]

Some good detail on what Russia needs to import (this was originally posted on the Georginio Rutter thread):

Some nice detail in there from Geraschenko, e.g. "The Finance Ministry aimed to sell 4.1 trillion rubles in federal bonds to cover the shortfall but managed only half that. Banks are hesitant, with sales goals for Q2 and Q3 at 50% and Q4 below 10%. Now, the ministry has just six weeks to find 2 trillion rubles, with limited options: either devalue the currency or freeze and seize deposits, both at the expense of Russian citizens."

Here we go, possibly, freeze and seize bank deposits! He added later that Russians had added 7 trillion rubles into bank deposits during 2024, to take advantage of the fast increasing interest rates. The question is...will their government actually let them take that money out when they want
(PS. I didn't know Georginio was an economist)

 

[raymondo]

Pretty sure he meant that the Russian economy would collapse (like it did in the 90s) to the extent that internal issues would trump continuing a war outside its borders (as happened with the Roman Empire).

Whether he's right on the figures, I have no idea, but this is the general point that a few of us have been making - if the Russian economy does collapse, and they can't afford to pay their troops, then surely the war effort collapses too?

I wonder how China feel about it all? Will they be fine with Russia losing, and as they collapse internally, China getting old land back? Or do they want to spend big to try and help Russia win?

I dunno...Russian rules are different to ours:
- can't pay the troops? never mind, you get a couple of tins of food a day and there's a gun pointed at your back
- not enough sign up money for you to volunteer? ok, forced conscription, at the point of a gun

I don't know how long that would last as a policy, but a while I guess?

 

[Eric the meek]

(PS. I didn't know Georginio was an economist)

Someone asked what my post had to do with Georginio, and @GoldstoneVintage replied:

'Because if a Russian team wants to buy Rutter, he will cost them even more now because of the raging inflation. Obviously. '

 

[raymondo]

Russian high command don't want to hear lies and they don't want to hear the truth either

 

[peterward]

I think you have to remember that he’s full of shit. I suspect he threatens to use nukes on his housekeeper if there’s not enough vodka to go on the cornflakes.

I really don’t understand how anyone’s still falling for the “woah, he’s so crazy and unpredictable” nonsense.

He’s entirely predictable. Everything is described as a red line which if crossed will cause Russia to be forced to escalate against Russia’s enemies.

As each red line is crossed, he says “well you may have crossed that red line, but if you cross this next red line, you will see Russia escalate things against its enemies.”

And repeat ad nauseum. He’s boxed in. He can’t escalate to the point of a nuclear conflict as Russia would be destroyed, he can’t escalate to the point of a regular world conflict without China and Iran joining him. NATO are simply better equipped. I don’t think he’d survive being seen to fail at home in Russia, so we have what we have now.

He’s going to have to take a peace deal of some kind, his country is going down the toilet, he’s going to get taken out from within if something doesn’t give shortly.

What's even more nauseating are idiots like Simon Jenkins, who say nothing about 14000 projectiles fired at Ukraine, mainly into civillians, but claim 20 missiles at Russia military installations is a massive escalation.

Who claim as you suggest [that we must not escalate, as] Putin is crazy and unpredictable, but at the same time we should be seeking negotiations with this crazy and unpredictable person.

 

[raymondo]

I think you have to remember that he’s full of shit. I suspect he threatens to use nukes on his housekeeper if there’s not enough vodka to go on the cornflakes.

I really don’t understand how anyone’s still falling for the “woah, he’s so crazy and unpredictable” nonsense.

He’s entirely predictable. Everything is described as a red line which if crossed will cause Russia to be forced to escalate against Russia’s enemies.

As each red line is crossed, he says “well you may have crossed that red line, but if you cross this next red line, you will see Russia escalate things against its enemies.”

And repeat ad nauseum. He’s boxed in. He can’t escalate to the point of a nuclear conflict as Russia would be destroyed, he can’t escalate to the point of a regular world conflict without China and Iran joining him. NATO are simply better equipped. I don’t think he’d survive being seen to fail at home in Russia, so we have what we have now.

He’s going to have to take a peace deal of some kind, his country is going down the toilet, he’s going to get taken out from within if something doesn’t give shortly.

I would love to see some red lines from Ukraine, US ...someone other than Pootin.

As I've suggested before: " if you hit one more Ukrainian hospital or apartment block with a missile or drone...we're dropping the Kerch Bridge"...and then do it.

 

[Shropshire Seagull]

I would love to see some red lines from Ukraine, US ...someone other than Pootin.

As I've suggested before: " if you hit one more Ukrainian hospital or apartment block with a missile or drone...we're dropping the Kerch Bridge"...and then do it.

As all good parents will know, red lines, are ... red lines.

My kids learned that when I said something I meant it, but you must be careful to make sure you can, and do, carry out the consequence (threat) of crossing the red line.

In simple terms: mean what you say and say what you mean.

 

[Triggaaar]

I would love to see some red lines from Ukraine, US ...someone other than Pootin.

Well the red line would be the border between Ukraine and Russia. Russia crossed it in Feb 22.

 

[Eric the meek]

Perhaps we should learn from history. It tells us that:

1. Prior to the invasion, Russia didn't threaten to invade Ukraine. Not once. In fact, they repeatedly denied they were planning to do so.
2. I read a while ago, that during the course of the war, Russia had made 165 threats of a nuclear strike.

There are other examples.

The conclusion is that they do the opposite of what they say they will do.