[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[GT49er]

The Russian soldiers would have to leave Ukraine as a non-negotiable pre-condition for aid.

......... and the return of the stolen children.

 

[Eric the meek]

That's interesting, didn't know he was Tuvan. So, "I've made it to the elite and you're never gonna get there".

Latest from Paul Warburg (I'm part way through) is all about their economy and how it looks supper rosy to many citizens at the moment (flush with sign up and death benefits from the military). Maybe an example of catastrophe theory soon to happen

I think Shoigu is pretty much the exception. The only other ethnic person in a high position I can think of is Kadyrov. Russians make up the majority of the population anyway.

Can you post the Warburg video please?
I've always thought the economy is key. The problem is we can only see snapshots, glimpses, reports, anecdotes. Will it drag on or is there a cliff that we can't see here in the west, but perhaps the Russian elites can?

Edit: I've found the Paul Warburg video.
Edit: The deliberate policy to delay recruitment bonuses, soldiers' salaries and death benefits. Christ almighty.

 

[Triggaaar]

More economics for you:

 

[ukpolska]

For a bit of fun I’ve just tried to open a Ruble account on my Revolut account but surprisingly it’s one of the few currencies they don’t offer ( their systems probably don’t have the capacity to keep up with it!)

I am not surprised by this as if my memory serves me well it was developed by a British-Ukrainian software engineer and at the start of the conflict they were offering a lot of help to Ukrainian people here in Poland.

 

[Eric the meek]

More economics for you:

Blimey. According to him, if the exchange rate hits even the 1 Rub = 0.0083 USD, it's game over. If think he said even if it hits the 80s (0.0089999) it's game over.
Unfortunately, he didn't elaborate on what 'game over' would elicit.

@raymondo, I remember you saying something about 0.8 of a cent. Have you been taking a sneaky look at this monetary economist's videos?

 

[Triggaaar]

Blimey. According to him, if the exchange rate hits even the 1 Rub = 0.0083 USD, it's game over. If think he said even if it hits the 80s (0.0089999) it's game over.
Unfortunately, he didn't elaborate on what 'game over' would elicit.

Pretty sure he meant that the Russian economy would collapse (like it did in the 90s) to the extent that internal issues would trump continuing a war outside its borders (as happened with the Roman Empire).

Whether he's right on the figures, I have no idea, but this is the general point that a few of us have been making - if the Russian economy does collapse, and they can't afford to pay their troops, then surely the war effort collapses too?

I wonder how China feel about it all? Will they be fine with Russia losing, and as they collapse internally, China getting old land back? Or do they want to spend big to try and help Russia win?

 

[Triggaaar]

For a bit of fun I’ve just tried to open a Ruble account on my Revolut account but surprisingly it’s one of the few currencies they don’t offer ( their systems probably don’t have the capacity to keep up with it!)

When I logged onto HSBC, it gave me the note that they would no longer allow transactions linked to rubles. Seemed a bit weird after 2.5 years.

 

[Eric the meek]

Pretty sure he meant that the Russian economy would collapse (like it did in the 90s) to the extent that internal issues would trump continuing a war outside its borders (as happened with the Roman Empire).

Whether he's right on the figures, I have no idea, but this is the general point that a few of us have been making - if the Russian economy does collapse, and they can't afford to pay their troops, then surely the war effort collapses too?

I wonder how China feel about it all? Will they be fine with Russia losing, and as they collapse internally, China getting old land back? Or do they want to spend big to try and help Russia win?

Ah yes. I think I might have tuned out a bit at the beginning - sorry. I was watching the cars drive behind him.

Regarding paying troops, yes, but maybe not immediately. Paul Warburg details how Russia is withholding payments to soldiers (recruitment bonuses, salaries and yes, death benefits for as long as possible), to gain interest on that money to keep the show on the road. I wouldn't put it past them to carry on the war a short while, even after the economy has collapsed.

I hope and believe that China are playing a long game to get their land back. There's not much point in continuing to support a failing Russia, with the risk of secondary sanctions. Western markets are far more valuable than Russia's trade.

 

[Triggaaar]

Regarding paying troops, yes, but maybe not immediately. Paul Warburg details how Russia is withholding payments to soldiers (recruitment bonuses, salaries and yes, death benefits for as long as possible), to gain interest on that money to keep the show on the road.

Yes I've seen that video. But at some point the soldiers will get wise to the fact that they're not getting paid, and it's difficult to be motivated when everyone is dying, you're not getting paid, and it's all for nothing anyway.

I hope and believe that China are playing a long game to get their land back. There's not much point in continuing to support a failing Russia, with the risk of secondary sanctions. Western markets are far more valuable than Russia's trade.

I hope so. Either way I'm sure they'll be expecting 'their' land back, either because Russia collapses or because it's part of a deal to help Russia.