[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[peterward]

That's the first time I've heard that. So the peace talks are doomed before they begin? I wonder if Trump and his team are aware of it?

I have no idea. I think you're right that Russia is in a world of immediate problems so maybe they would agree to some sort of freeze to buy time?

But ultimately, Putins abstract history lessons and worldview are formed by Ilyin and there is no way Putin will accept a free Ukraine outside Russias orbit. He'll be back again at some point.

Dr Timothy Snyder has written a fair bit about it, for a more simplistic, bitsize taster, hes a short video of shynder and a sexed up Medhri Hassan version he did a on it near beginning of war. Ikyins worldview is Putins and through that lens his actions and ambitions while sick are more predictable!

 

[Eric the meek]

I have no idea. I think you're right that Russia is in a world of immediate problems so maybe they would agree to some sort of freeze to buy time?

But ultimately, Putins abstract history lessons and worldview are formed by Ilyin and there is no way Putin will accept a free Ukraine outside Russias orbit. He'll be back again at some point.

Dr Timothy Snyder has written a fair bit about it, for a more simplistic, bitsize taster, hes a short video of shynder and a sexed up Medhri Hassan version he did a on it near beginning of war. Ikyins worldview is Putins and through that lens his actions and ambitions while sick are more predictable!

I've just watched them. It is a bit remiss of me to have been on this forum since near the beginning, and not be aware of this. I have sometimes wondered why Putin behaves in the ways he does; the answers would appear to be in Illyin's works. Putin's thinking often appears to be on tramlines. He is driven, but not in a good way.

I suspect this makes him irredeemable, but, as you say, predictable. He believes his own spin so much, that even when huge economic problems stare him in the face, he ploughs on regardless, perhaps in the belief that his view of the world will come good in the end.

But will the end come first, before his and Russia's redemption?

 

[peterward]

I've just watched them. It is a bit remiss of me to have been on this forum since near the beginning, and not be aware of this. I have sometimes wondered why Putin behaves in the ways he does; the answers would appear to be in Illyin's works. Putin's thinking often appears to be on tramlines. He is driven, but not in a good way.

I suspect this makes him irredeemable, but, as you say, predictable. He believes his own spin so much, that even when huge economic problems stare him in the face, he ploughs on regardless, perhaps in the belief that his view of the world will come good in the end.

But will the end come first, before his and Russia's redemption?

Just read this on X from a leading Ukrainian journalist. (You may well be aware of)

Kinda on the same themes about Putins appetite won't be satisfied with a permanent freeze.



And this from the Atlantic is more of the same theme, and i reckon a pretty accurate take also.

Putin Isn’t Fighting for Land in Ukraine

And Biden has mere weeks to give the Ukrainians the resources they need to fight.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[Eric the meek]

Just read this on X from a leading Ukrainian journalist. (You may well be aware of)

Kinda on the same themes about Putins appetite won't be satisfied with a permanent freeze.

Yes, that seems to capture the essence of Putin. He isn't going to stop.

I remember when Liz Truss went to see Lavrov just before the war, in the hope of preventing the invasion.
The headlines were all how Lavrov belittled her (He asked her if the Voronezh and Rostov oblasts should be within Russia, and our Liz replied 'I will never agree to that'). She fell straight into the trap.

But the real story was that he asked such a question. It meant that he wasn't seriously entertaining any attempt to prevent the invasion.

Today, when all the talk is of peace, what do we have? Russian state TV showing pictures of a naked Melania. It's the same thing. They're taking the piss.

They have no intention of stopping.

 

[raymondo]

Just read this on X from a leading Ukrainian journalist. (You may well be aware of)

Kinda on the same themes about Putins appetite won't be satisfied with a permanent freeze.



And this from the Atlantic is more of the same theme, and i reckon a pretty accurate take also.

Putin Isn’t Fighting for Land in Ukraine

And Biden has mere weeks to give the Ukrainians the resources they need to fight.

www.theatlantic.com

That's the most powerful piece I've read from Ponomarenko - thank you

 

[raymondo]

There is a lot of miscalculation in the west who wrongly assume its about Territory, or NATO or Nazis or any other baloney reason for Putin.

Its none of those things. Putins worldview and Ukraine view is inspired by dead Russian fascist philosopher Ivan Ilyin, Putin quotes him often, personally repatriated his body and works from abroad, he even had a book of Ilyins writings sent to all Russian regional governors around 2010-2012. Tye Russian state mirrors Ilyins totalitarian ideals. Ilyin states clearly that any concept of a Ukraine independent of Russia (little Russia independent of Great Russia) must be exterminated and can never be allowed to exist independent of Russia.

Putin never will accept any part of Ukraine/Kyiv going into EU NATO for 20% of their fields or destroyed towns. All this BS about Nazis ir NATO is a smokescreen. He is genociding Ukraine areas of all Ukraine culture and references and he won't stop until he subjugated all of Ukraine, in time or is himself defeated. Any forced bad peace will not hold, it will only delay the next push.

The west has his motivations all wrong and Putin won't agree to any form of Ukraine being out of his sphere or Control.

Putin's single minded focus on controlling or destroying Ukraine could perversely be beneficial to it's survival.
A bad peace would be terrible,as Russia re-arms and awaits it's chance to go again. The west could well relax (phew it's all over, now where were we, ah yes trade deals...).
BUT if it's obvious either during any 'peace' negotiations (or soon after) that Putin has no intention of giving up any gains, nor of stopping...then surely the understanding will finally hit home for European (and hopefully US) leaders. Hopefully, finally Ukraine is supplied so that they can win the war, rather than barely survive it.

 

[Pavilionaire]

There's much to discuss in that. I'll try to address your points in the order you made them.

Received wisdom has it that Putin wanted a Trump win, but he endorsed Kamala Harris in the US election. This could have been a bluff of course. Posting old naked pictures on Melania on Russian state TV was perhaps a gangster style powerplay or maybe a warning (that he has Kompromat on Trump and will use it). This could backfire spectacularly.

Russia is in a death spiral economically. There is a chasm between the bravado and sabre-rattling for the domestic TV market and the many enemies that Russia now has, compared to the brutal reality now facing it. Its own war is now unsustainable. A war that is approaching 1000 days, and which has gained him just 20% of Ukraine. Russia spends more than it makes. The ruble is near parity. Not with the dollar but with the cent. Its base rate is 21%, and will shortly be rising again. Having tried and failed to blackmail Europe over oil and gas, it has lost those customers forever. Its replacement customers, China and India, want the oil and gas at cost price. If Russia doesn't comply, they will simply take their business elsewhere. Whoever it was who blew up the Nordstream pipeline, landed a killer blow, right in Russia's breadbasket.

Regarding shifting borders, Ukraine doesn't need to cede any territory. Giving away Crimea to Russia, is a non-runner, as it has huge strategic value, would be used to disrupt Ukraine's sea trade routes, and because, well, Russia is desperate to keep Sevastopol as it is its only warm water ice free port. Russia lost the trust and goodwill of the west a long time ago, roughly when it became aware that the invasion was going ahead, at the same time that they said it wasn't. So how could there be any 'binding non-aggression pact'? Who could trust a single, solitary word that Putin says now?

Crimea has the largest proportion of ethnic Russians in Ukraine, it is the most "Russian" territory in the country and it has been under Russian control for a decade. Indeed, the West didn't fight hard to keep it out of Putin's hands, and that would indicate it is a bargaining chip the West would be prepared to give up in any peace deal.

Ukraine will need western money to help rebuild the country. The most logical way for that to happen would be for it to be part of the EU, as that would provide both sides with mutual gains and some measure of certainty and security. They would surely have to think seriously about ceding that territory to Russian if it meant regaining the rest of the lost territory, EU and NATO membership.

I agree that Putin cannot be trusted, but he is not going to be around forever either.

Of course we only pontificate because Trump has said he'd sort a deal before he comes into power. There is a strong argument for maintaining support for Ukraine 'as is' and playing a waiting game.

 

[Bodian]

Musk keeps posting conspiracy theories that suit his agenda with a 1 or 2 word quip. He's trying to create narratives that suit his agenda, but based on lies.

Indeed. But it's got him into the White House with his puppet president. So, it's no wonder that he keeps on with it.

 

[Eric the meek]

Crimea has the largest proportion of ethnic Russians in Ukraine, it is the most "Russian" territory in the country and it has been under Russian control for a decade. Indeed, the West didn't fight hard to keep it out of Putin's hands, and that would indicate it is a bargaining chip the West would be prepared to give up in any peace deal.

Ukraine will need western money to help rebuild the country. The most logical way for that to happen would be for it to be part of the EU, as that would provide both sides with mutual gains and some measure of certainty and security. They would surely have to think seriously about ceding that territory to Russian if it meant regaining the rest of the lost territory, EU and NATO membership.

I agree that Putin cannot be trusted, but he is not going to be around forever either.

Of course we only pontificate because Trump has said he'd sort a deal before he comes into power. There is a strong argument for maintaining support for Ukraine 'as is' and playing a waiting game.

But Crimea doesn't belong to the west, so it is not relevant if the west would be prepared to give it up in any peace deal. It belongs to Ukraine.

In addition, be careful about offering to give away other countries' territory, based on the ethnic populations. While you may be correct in the officially published percentage of Russians in Crimea, how do you know that the Russian propaganda machine hasn't been integrated into the demographics? Have you asked them if they want to be a part of Russia? Russia didn't ask them when it annexed Crimea. Since then, Russia has shipped out Crimean Tatars, and shipped in Siberians.

That's what Russia does. Ethnic cleansing.

 

[raymondo]

Indeed. But it's got him into the White House with his puppet president. So, it's no wonder that he keeps on with it.

They are very uneasy bedfellows.Both very transactional and narcissistic, I'm hoping it all ends in tears.
They both hated each other in the past, and Trump still hates electric cars apparently. I wonder how his threats on Chinese tariffs would affect Tesla imports? Or if China then helps BYD versus Tesla in their local market?

 

[The Clamp]

Just read this on X from a leading Ukrainian journalist. (You may well be aware of)

Kinda on the same themes about Putins appetite won't be satisfied with a permanent freeze.



And this from the Atlantic is more of the same theme, and i reckon a pretty accurate take also.

Putin Isn’t Fighting for Land in Ukraine

And Biden has mere weeks to give the Ukrainians the resources they need to fight.

www.theatlantic.com

Exactly as many of us have said on here from the start;

This war will not end until the West gets real and acknowledges there will either be allied troops on the ground or we give means and consent to rain hellfire down upon the Kremlin.

Putin will not stop unless he is stopped.

We are wasting lives and time putting off the inevitable.

Britain will be at war with Russia. Let’s get on with it.

 

[raymondo]

Crimea has the largest proportion of ethnic Russians in Ukraine, it is the most "Russian" territory in the country and it has been under Russian control for a decade. Indeed, the West didn't fight hard to keep it out of Putin's hands, and that would indicate it is a bargaining chip the West would be prepared to give up in any peace deal.

Ukraine will need western money to help rebuild the country. The most logical way for that to happen would be for it to be part of the EU, as that would provide both sides with mutual gains and some measure of certainty and security. They would surely have to think seriously about ceding that territory to Russian if it meant regaining the rest of the lost territory, EU and NATO membership.

I agree that Putin cannot be trusted, but he is not going to be around forever either.

Of course we only pontificate because Trump has said he'd sort a deal before he comes into power. There is a strong argument for maintaining support for Ukraine 'as is' and playing a waiting game.

If Crimea is ceded to Russia ( and I think it likely if it comes to negotiations, whatever the rights and wrongs) maritime enforcement would have to be in place to ensure safe passage and normal operation of Odessa port.
A big yes to your final paragraph.

 

[raymondo]

Just read this on X from a leading Ukrainian journalist. (You may well be aware of)

Kinda on the same themes about Putins appetite won't be satisfied with a permanent freeze.



And this from the Atlantic is more of the same theme, and i reckon a pretty accurate take also.

Putin Isn’t Fighting for Land in Ukraine

And Biden has mere weeks to give the Ukrainians the resources they need to fight.

www.theatlantic.com

A good piece from the Atlantic too, thank you.
You know, the more I read and ponder in recent weeks, the more it seems that Zelenskiy's simple statement is correct: it's either NATO (or some other bullet proof protection) or nukes to save Ukraine.
The only other option is to increase sanctions, and to increase weapon supplies, possibly European support on the ground, until Russia crumbles.

 

[Eric the meek]

Two snippets for this morning:

1. Times Radio report that Trump has said 'if Russia doesn't compromise, he'll arm Ukraine to the teeth'. (Let's hope Russia doesn't compromise then).
2. FMCG (fast moving consumer goods - stuff you buy at the supermarket) inflation in Russia in August was 22% - Vladimir Milov, Swedish Economic Symposium in August.

 

[The Clamp]

From a few days ago.

UK strikes at heart of Putin's war machine

The UK has today announced a wave of new sanctions against Russia’s military industrial complex and Russian-backed mercenary groups.

www.gov.uk

 

[raymondo]

Two snippets for this morning:

1. Times Radio report that Trump has said 'if Russia doesn't compromise, he'll arm Ukraine to the teeth'. (Let's hope Russia doesn't compromise then).
2. FMCG (fast moving consumer goods - stuff you buy at the supermarket) inflation in Russia in August was 22% - Vladimir Milov, Swedish Economic Symposium in August.

As things happen, leak, I'm thinking it's less likely Putin has kompromat on Trump

 

[raymondo]

Trump picks Waltz as his national security advisor. This is potentially very positive for Ukraine. Waltz has visited Ukraine before, and criticised the slow supply of weapons under Biden's government. He a retired Colonel and green beret.
Now, maybe Trump has done this because he wants strong advice on stance re China, but maybe it's more to do with Russia and Ukraine.
Jake Broe, starting about 9.30 IIRC

 

[peterward]

Wow. Trump has just appointed his defence minister who will head up the Pentagon.

Pete Hegseth, a Fox news show host.

He does have some previous combat experience, but no political or DOD experience, shirley he ain't getting confirmed by the senate?

 

[peterward]

Do we need to draw a line under this thread and create a new "Trump Presidency utter clusterfuck" thread?

In this Russia / Ukraine one, Trump has some influence but cannot decide outcome.

Under the Trump Harris 2024 one yes!

 

[peterward]

Gets worse. Hegseth was forced out of the military (revenge,/axe to grind)

And this is the proposed head of the worlds most powerful military with zero executive or management experience.



What this means for who knows, but it's frightening.