[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Scappa]

Hundreds of Russian Troops Gathered Out In The Open. They Didn’t Know The Ukrainians Had Aimed Four ATACMS Rockets At Them.

The arrival of scores of U.S.-made ATACMS rockets in Ukraine means no Russians are safe within 190 miles of the front line.

www.forbes.com

Presumably this is the strike referenced

 

[raymondo]

Hundreds of Russian Troops Gathered Out In The Open. They Didn’t Know The Ukrainians Had Aimed Four ATACMS Rockets At Them.

The arrival of scores of U.S.-made ATACMS rockets in Ukraine means no Russians are safe within 190 miles of the front line.

www.forbes.com

I assume he's getting his reports from Telegram and possibly the Ukrainian survey drone that was above.

 

[raymondo]

Presumably this is the strike referenced

It's interesting to understand that there are spotter drones (from both sides) flying behind lines looking for suitable targets. Maybe some areas are obvious searches (known airfields etc) plus maybe some intel from local partisans. It's all very targeted .

 

[Eric the meek]

I assume he's getting his reports from Telegram and possibly the Ukrainian survey drone that was above.

I don't know but it could well be that. Somehow I can't see Russia broadcasting this adventure in a display for their May 9 victory day.

Here's another of David Axe's reports, this time on the attack on the supply of glide bombs a few days ago:

Russian Airmen Filled A Shed With Powerful Glide Bomb Kits. Soon, Dozens Of Ukrainian Drones Swarmed In.

The Russian air force pummels Ukrainian positions with as many as 3,000 KAB glide bombs every month. Which is why a shed full of KABs is a top target for Ukraine's drones.

www.forbes.com

 

[raymondo]

BBC News - Ukraine war: Kyiv can use British weapons inside Russia, says UK's Cameron - BBC News

Ukraine war: Kyiv can use British weapons inside Russia, says UK's Cameron

UK Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron says it is up to Ukraine to decide how to use British arms.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[raymondo]

Expect plane loads of African mercenaries heading to Russian training camps soon, for intense 3 hour courses before heading to the front line.

BBC News - Russians sent to Niger airbase occupied by US troops

Russians sent to Niger airbase occupied by US troops

The Russians are said to be sharing a wing of Niger's main airport, but not mingling with US troops.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Eric the meek]

The Russians are becoming jittery ahead of their commemorative events next week.

This has got potential !

 

[essbee1]

The Russians are becoming jittery ahead of their commemorative events next week.

This has got potential !

I'm quaking in my boots after seeing that.

 

[Triggaaar]

Sorry to pick this up days late, I just saw it had no reply. Birth rate has been falling sknce the 60's, but population has been growing as life expectancy has improved.

Although improved life expectancy means the population grows, the birth rate is still over 2, so that also makes it grow.

 

[Triggaaar]

The Russians are becoming jittery ahead of their commemorative events next week.

This has got potential !

"The preparations for the attack on the bridge are being conducted openly with ostentatious bravado".

Yeah, 'cos Russia would never discuss attacks with bravado

Oh those Russians

 

[Eric the meek]

Brief update in the list of countries Russia has threatened today:

Denmark must be added to the USA, UK and Belgium.

'Russia threatens Denmark with 'retaliation' if it blocks vessels'
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-...its-port-city-with-ballistic-missile-12541713 16:00

 

[Triggaaar]

I saw the BBC report on Russia putting on public display some of the military equipment it had captured / destroyed from various different countries. Seems a bit of a desperate thing to do, feeling they need to continue to justify the war to their own people and demonstrate their success against the evil west who started the damn thing. Each piece of equipment seemed to carry the flag of the country of origin and I wonder whether those Russian citizens of a more questioning nature will...

Let me stop you there. Russian citizens of a more questioning nature are either silent, in prison, have left, or are dead.

 

[raymondo]

More radar being sent from Germany to Ukraine. They can track incoming fighter aircraft and supersonic missiles.

Ukraine conflict: Hensoldt sending additional six TRML-4D radars to Ukraine

Ukraine is receiving another batch of TRML-4D ground-based air-defence radars from Hensoldt to strengthen the country's air defence.

www.janes.com

 

[raymondo]

Sanctions give Gazprom its first loss in 20 years. Clearly it's not that easy to divert sales to India, China...

 

[Eric the meek]

Sanctions give Gazprom its first loss in 20 years. Clearly it's not that easy to divert sales to India, China...
View attachment 181795

After 20 years of being an asset of the state and an ATM for Putin, it now becomes an expensive liability. Putin has killed his own cash cow.

 

[raymondo]

After 20 years of being an asset of the state and an ATM for Putin, it now becomes an expensive liability. Putin has killed his own cash cow.

Indeed. I wonder how their oil producers will be affected? Maybe not as much, but they have both reduced/changed markets and refinery attacks to deal with.

 

[Eric the meek]

Indeed. I wonder how their oil producers will be affected? Maybe not as much, but they have both reduced/changed markets and refinery attacks to deal with.

Yes, I wondered how they were getting on. The last I heard was an estimate of some 12-15% reduction in refined oil throughput. Let's hope Ukraine is able to scale up their drone campaign shortly. I think it has worried Russia. Peter Zeihan speculated the scenario of crude oil being backed up in the pipe back to the well head, at which point the well has to be turned off. It isn't easy or quick to turn it back on apparently.

If I find any updates on the drone attacks, I'll post them.

 

[raymondo]

Yes, I wondered how they were getting on. The last I heard was an estimate of some 12-15% reduction in refined oil throughput. Let's hope Ukraine is able to scale up their drone campaign shortly. I think it has worried Russia. Peter Zeihan speculated the scenario of crude oil being backed up in the pipe back to the well head, at which point the well has to be turned off. It isn't easy or quick to turn it back on apparently.

If I find any updates on the drone attacks, I'll post them.

Zeihan's quite knowledgeable, isn't he? I'd never have thought of that 'backed up ' problem.

 

[Eric the meek]

'Russia says it's ready to review "serious" peace proposals with Ukraine'



But....but....it was only a few days ago that Putin said there was no point in peace talks.......

So what has happened in the meantime? The $60 billion of weaponry they didn't see coming?
Was it David Cameron giving the green light for British weapons to be used inside Russia*, that caused the volte-face?
The dawning realisation that modern western precision weapons (the ones given to Ukraine will be our old, surplus stock) can pick off the enemy at a safe distance?

* I understand this ruffled a few feathers in the Kremlin.

(Usual caveats apply. They're Russian, so they lie through their teeth. Whatever peace agreement that might be achieved, they wouldn't stick to it anyway).

 

[raymondo]

'Russia says it's ready to review "serious" peace proposals with Ukraine'



But....but....it was only a few days ago that Putin said there was no point in peace talks.......

So what has happened in the meantime? The $60 billion of weaponry they didn't see coming?
Was it David Cameron giving the green light for British weapons to be used inside Russia*, that caused the volte-face?
The dawning realisation that modern western precision weapons (the ones given to Ukraine will be our old, surplus stock) can pick off the enemy at a safe distance?

* I understand this ruffled a few feathers in the Kremlin.

(Usual caveats apply. They're Russian, so they lie through their teeth. Whatever peace agreement that might be achieved, they wouldn't stick to it anyway).

It's good that Cameron said it.
Macron told the Economist last week that he doesn't rule out French boots on the ground if Russia make a breakthrough at the front...and if Ukraine requests help.