[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[The Clamp]

What strikes me is the huge increase in attacks on Russian installations.

Nato explicitly told Ukraine that no weapons should be used for attacks on Russia itself.

But just maybe after the Republican, Papal, Trumpian, Orban stuff blocking more aid and urging a white flag, the Ukrainians are trying to force the Russians and the West's hand by escalating big time.

Maybe it's a last throw of the dice for Ukraine.
And maybe the West will wake up

It was arguably inevitable that Ukraine were going to take the fight to Russia.

If someone is throwing rocks at your head it’s only a matter of time before you throw some back.

And bloody good on them.

Long may Ukraine continue to strike at Russian military targets and infrastructure.

 

[Hamilton]

I wonder if the better course of action for the West (long term) would have been to let Putin defeat Ukraine and manage the insurgency that would have been incoming.

It may be that a defeated Ukraine will longer term turn their ire on the West for letting them down.

Just thinking aloud.

Politics eh?

 

[The Clamp]

I wonder if the better course of action for the West (long term) would have been to let Putin defeat Ukraine and manage the insurgency that would have been incoming.

It may be that a defeated Ukraine will longer term turn their ire on the West for letting them down.

Just thinking aloud.

Politics eh?

It is never the better course of action to let a people be subjugated, raped, murdered, de-nationalised and destroyed for a longer term political goal.


Edit: just my opinion, not getting confrontational

 

[Eric the meek]

What strikes me is the huge increase in attacks on Russian installations.

Nato explicitly told Ukraine that no weapons should be used for attacks on Russia itself.

But just maybe after the Republican, Papal, Trumpian, Orban stuff blocking more aid and urging a white flag, the Ukrainians are trying to force the Russians and the West's hand by escalating big time.

Maybe it's a last throw of the dice for Ukraine.
And maybe the West will wake up

There's a small part of me that has wondered - for some time - that Ukraine has performed its own 'Maskirovka', playing down its strengths, and overstating the strengths of the enemy.

'“Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak” - Sun Tzu, The Art of War.

 

[peterward]

I wonder if the better course of action for the West (long term) would have been to let Putin defeat Ukraine and manage the insurgency that would have been incoming.

It may be that a defeated Ukraine will longer term turn their ire on the West for letting them down.

Just thinking aloud.

Politics eh?

All military doctrine will tell you that is a bad idea.

An attacking army "normally" loses about 7-8x the troops as a defending army to take significant positions.

If Ukraine was fully subjugated, Russia would steal all of its resources, its vast gas reserves in black see and would (as they have in Donbass) , used forced conscription of 100s of thousands of Ukrainians to launch further attacks. Moldova, Georgia, NATO?

No, in every way, holding ground, attrition of Russian forces, taking fight to Russia, marginalising them, sanctioning them and going after their revenue generating infrastructure is the best of a set of awful options.

It's now all or nothing

 

[Hamilton]

It is never the better course of action to let a people be subjugated, raped, murdered, de-nationalised and destroyed for a longer term political goal.


Edit: just my opinion, not getting confrontational

I agree. I'm just trying to think about what happens next after Ukraine is defeated.

Trump will win the election and the EU won't support Ukraine with enough hardware.

Just thinking about what will really happen.

 

[raymondo]

I agree. I'm just trying to think about what happens next after Ukraine is defeated.

Trump will win the election and the EU won't support Ukraine with enough hardware.

Just thinking about what will really happen.

What MIGHT happen, for now at least

 

[raymondo]

What strikes me is the huge increase in attacks on Russian installations.

Nato explicitly told Ukraine that no weapons should be used for attacks on Russia itself.

But just maybe after the Republican, Papal, Trumpian, Orban stuff blocking more aid and urging a white flag, the Ukrainians are trying to force the Russians and the West's hand by escalating big time.

Maybe it's a last throw of the dice for Ukraine.
And maybe the West will wake up

IIRC NATO said that no NATO supplied weapons could be used for attacks on Russian territory. These attacks will be from Ukrainian manufactured and operated drones (mainly...) so it's not a problem.

 

[portslade seagull]

I can't find details online - not doubting you, just wondering where you saw it - thanks

Ukraine_defence on Instagram, loads of short videos

 

[raymondo]

Ukraine_defence on Instagram, loads of short videos

Thank you!

 

[portslade seagull]

Thank you!

Now being reported by Deny's

 

[peterward]

I agree. I'm just trying to think about what happens next after Ukraine is defeated.

Trump will win the election and the EU won't support Ukraine with enough hardware.

Just thinking about what will really happen.

"IF" Trump wins its bad for Ukraine for sure, but it doesn't mean Ukraine loses necessarily.

The combined GDP of europe is over 15x that of Russia, and whilst military manufacturing capacity isn't advanced enough, or producing enough, that is the main issue, not just money.

Financially europe could manage,.and if they're smart they'll use countries like Japan and S Korea who have good military industry and capacity.

Trump hasn't won yet and for next 8 months they need to get another aid deal through Congress, ensure without failing they can transfer Russias frozen assets to Ukraine which is 300B and work on increasing European manufacturing capacity and other global supply sources.

It can be done without the US with political will.

 

[raymondo]

Now being reported by Deny's

Aahh...did you mean that the Ukrainian affiliated Russian freedom guys have crossed the border into Russia? I've been reading that...if I've understood
(If I'm misunderstanding that could be cos I had very little sleep ).

 

[fly high]

And there's more, this time from Anton Gerashchenko.......

A Russian military cargo plane IL-76? has crashed at Ivanovo, north east of Moscow:



SU-27 fighter shot down in Belgorod (unconfirmed)



Power plant St Petersburg on fire



Edit: I'll try to get his name right in future - Gerashchenko

Hope it's really cold in St Petersburg

 

[peterward]

I can't find details online - not doubting you, just wondering where you saw it - thanks

 

[raymondo]

Got it now

 

[peterward]

 

[sparkie]

I wonder if the better course of action for the West (long term) would have been to let Putin defeat Ukraine and manage the insurgency that would have been incoming.

It may be that a defeated Ukraine will longer term turn their ire on the West for letting them down.

Just thinking aloud.

Politics eh?

That's a terrible strategy.

Putin would then conscript loads of conquered Ukrainians into his army - and then use them to attack the next country on his list. A 140 million population Russia would then become a 180 million population.

 

[A1X]

Hope it's really cold in St Petersburg

Temperature doesn’t go above 10 this week and sub-zero most nights

 

[raymondo]