[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[raymondo]

I know it sounds very John Le Carre, but It wouldn’t surprise me if some of them had moved to Russia several years ago to wait and prepare for days like these - ‘sleepers’.

If they'd moved there since the 2014 invasion I would agree a small %, could be sleepers.
But prior to 2014... I'm more doubtful. My (albeit limited, family focused) interactions with Ukrainians from 2009 to 2013...they easily referred to their 'Russian brothers and sisters '. Could just be my narrow experience though.

 

[raymondo]

I took notice of something you highlighted a while back. I think it was in the context of long distance drone attacks by Ukraine to St. Petersburg and elsewhere.
You pointed out that there are many Ukrainian nationals who live in Russia (with the implication that maybe the drones didn't have to fly that far).

I've just googled it, and Wiki says 'The Russian census identified that there were more than 5,864,000 Ukrainians living in Russia in 2015'. Today, there are probably more, and they are probably angrier than they were in 2015.

Ukraine's tentacles are reaching deep inside Russia.

@sparkie, thank you for your comment - very relevant.

Deeper into that useful Wiki article it says:

"In February 2014, there were 2.6 million Ukrainian citizens in the territory of Russia, two-thirds of the labour migrants; however, after Russia annexed Crimea and the start of the war in Donbas, the number was estimated to have risen to 4.5 million."
So, if I'm understanding correctly, the extra 2 million were the 'captive' Ukrainians in those annexed regions.

 

[Eric the meek]

Deeper into that useful Wiki article it says:

"In February 2014, there were 2.6 million Ukrainian citizens in the territory of Russia, two-thirds of the labour migrants; however, after Russia annexed Crimea and the start of the war in Donbas, the number was estimated to have risen to 4.5 million."
So, if I'm understanding correctly, the extra 2 million were the 'captive' Ukrainians in those annexed regions.

Yes, I saw that as well, and I also saw this:

'On 2022 February there were roughly 2.8 million Ukrainians who fled to Russia [ru].'

The 'fled to Russia' bit is a link that doesn't seem to work, the [ru] being a translation into Russian, and the mistake over the date, are all red flags for me.

We ought to be clear what figures refer to Russia, and the Russian Federation. The 5.8 million Ukrainians who lived in 'Russia' in the 2015 census, I assumed to be the whole Russian Federation, as that is what was referenced when it also gives the percentage they constituted, i.e. 4.01% (of 144 million).

However, the figures in your comment - I think - refer just to 'Russia' and not the wider Russian Federation. Wiki is not great in this respect.

To answer your question, I'm not sure that Wiki says the extra 2 million were the 'captive' Ukrainians in Crimea and Donbas? It implies it but it doesn't say it explicitly.

 

[peterward]

Putin was bullshitting entirely in his fake history lesson.

Putin lies. Who knew

Tucker Carlson interview: Fact-checking Putin's 'nonsense' history

Historians say the litany of claims made by the Russian president are nothing more than a selective abuse of history to justify the ongoing war in Ukraine.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[raymondo]

Yes, I saw that as well, and I also saw this:

'On 2022 February there were roughly 2.8 million Ukrainians who fled to Russia [ru].'

The 'fled to Russia' bit is a link that doesn't seem to work, the [ru] being a translation into Russian, and the mistake over the date, are all red flags for me.

We ought to be clear what figures refer to Russia, and the Russian Federation. The 5.8 million Ukrainians who lived in 'Russia' in the 2015 census, I assumed to be the whole Russian Federation, as that is what was referenced when it also gives the percentage they constituted, i.e. 4.01% (of 144 million).

However, the figures in your comment - I think - refer just to 'Russia' and not the wider Russian Federation. Wiki is not great in this respect.

To answer your question, I'm not sure that Wiki says the extra 2 million were the 'captive' Ukrainians in Crimea and Donbas? It implies it but it doesn't say it explicitly.

Agreed. Some of the numbers etc are a bit unclear.

 

[raymondo]

I found this very interesting. It's a couple of days old now. Towards the end he explains why he strongly believes it would be a big mistake for Ukraine to try to retake Crimea and the Donbas. Well worth a listen.

 

[jcdenton08]

Stitch that, Jimmy! Marvellous scenes.

No, I am not advocating or supporting the death of people from either nation, but unfortunately for Russia (soldiers, conscripts, mercenaries) they’re the “baddies”.

f*** Putin, f*** Russia for letting this happen - but sympathy for the large percentage of Russian people who just want peace and democracy.

 

[Triggaaar]

Putin was bullshitting entirely in his fake history lesson.

Putin lies. Who knew

Tucker Carlson interview: Fact-checking Putin's 'nonsense' history

Historians say the litany of claims made by the Russian president are nothing more than a selective abuse of history to justify the ongoing war in Ukraine.

www.bbc.co.uk

"Polish collaboration with Hitler"

Right, so the Poles collaborated with Hitler, and agreed that the USSR would join with the Nazis to take over Poland a split the spoils? Makes sense

 

[raymondo]

Putin was bullshitting entirely in his fake history lesson.

Putin lies. Who knew

Tucker Carlson interview: Fact-checking Putin's 'nonsense' history

Historians say the litany of claims made by the Russian president are nothing more than a selective abuse of history to justify the ongoing war in Ukraine.

www.bbc.co.uk

Yep, and Putin promised he won't ever invade Poland...so that's ok then, Poland can disband their military.

 

[Triggaaar]

Towards the end he explains why he strongly believes it would be a big mistake for Ukraine to try to retake Crimea and the Donbas.

Could you summarise that part for us?

 

[raymondo]

Could you summarise that part for us?

It starts at 29:20. I'm not saying I agree or disagree with his view (I don't know enough), just saying I found it interesting, as I did the whole interview.

 

[Eric the meek]

It starts at 29:20. I'm not saying I agree or disagree with his view (I don't know enough), just saying I found it interesting, as I did the whole interview.

Whatever peace looks like, be it a whole Ukraine or some kind of 'pragmatic' compromise/armistice, it must be a secure, lasting peace, with Putin gone, Putin's replacement very, very different, and Russia having absolutely no chance whatsoever of repeating its empire building exercise, but also having a pathway back to the peaceful, global trading world and lasting prosperity.

That means absolute, total, permanent, comprehensive disablement of Russia as a military power. Sanctions should remain for the foreseeable future.

But rather than discussing the break up of Ukraine, we should be discussing the break up the Russian Federation. This is more likely, more necessary and infinitely more desirable.

 

[Triggaaar]

Whatever peace looks like, be it a whole Ukraine or some kind of 'pragmatic' compromise/armistice, it must be a secure, lasting peace, with Putin gone, Putin's replacement very, very different, and Russia having absolutely no chance whatsoever of repeating its empire building exercise

If that were to happen, then Ukraine would then be wanting their land back. As long as Russia holds part of Ukraine, Ukraine will want its land back.

 

[Eric the meek]

If that were to happen, then Ukraine would then be wanting their land back. As long as Russia holds part of Ukraine, Ukraine will want its land back.

It would get it back, because Russia would be much weaker.

 

[Triggaaar]

It would get it back, because Russia would be much weaker.

In which case it won't be a lasting peace

 

[Eric the meek]

In which case it won't be a lasting peace

You miss the point. Peace through strength. It will be a lasting peace from Ukraine's perspective. Russia's perspective doesn't matter. It will be a lasting peace because Russia cannot retaliate.

 

[Triggaaar]

You miss the point. Peace through strength. It will be a lasting peace from Ukraine's perspective. Russia's perspective doesn't matter. It will be a lasting peace because Russia cannot retaliate.

So you're saying that it's a secure and lasting peace, if Ukraine attack (what will then be) Russia? Ok.

 

[Eric the meek]

So you're saying that it's a secure and lasting peace, if Ukraine attack (what will then be) Russia? Ok.

No. Of course I'm not saying that.

I'm saying that Ukraine will convince the inhabitants of her former regions, to rejoin the stronger, freer, more democratic, more prosperous Ukraine, from the impoverished and struggling Russia. This will be eased by vastly superior diplomacy, which Russia is frankly, not all that good at.

 

[A1X]

 

[Eric the meek]

Tucker Carlson interview: Russia-Ukraine ties will eventually heal, says Putin​

This might take a while....