[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Eric the meek]

A bit more speculation:

Why did Ukraine target the landing ship Novocherkassk, apart from the fact it was Russian and it was there, saying 'bomb me, bomb me'?
What did they think the Russians were planning?

Two things come to mind.

1. They were planning an assault on Odesa.
2. They were planning to use the landing ship to establish a bridgehead (on Crimea) to counter a Ukrainian offensive in Crimea.

Usual caveats - I could be completely wrong !

Edit: unconfirmed reports say the landing craft contained attack drones imported from Iran.

 

[brighton_dave]

Does anyone have any idea when the Pilots will be ready to fly the F16's? I see the first group of pilots completed basic training and are now on France for advanced training. Why would the F16's be in Ukraine before pilots are ready? Perhaps the pilots are further ahead in their training than we are hearing?

 

[sparkie]

Edit: unconfirmed reports say the landing craft contained attack drones imported from Iran.

Sounds right.

Destroy the Iranian drones before they can kill Ukrainians. And take out one of the transport ships.

 

[A1X]

Anyone got any marshmallows?

 

[Eric the meek]

The Russian landing ship, rumoured to contain attack drones from Iran, managed to get through the Bosporus, a strait with a minimum width of 750 metres, and wholly within Turkey, a member of Nato.

Then consider the 'previous' that the weapons allegedly on that ship, have killed numerous Ukrainians.

I know that the Bosporus is 'international waters', and I know that Turkey bats for both sides, but how many Ukrainian deaths could have been prevented by Turkey standing up to Russia?

 

[Sid and the Sharknados]

The Russian landing ship, rumoured to contain attack drones from Iran, managed to get through the Bosporus, a strait with a minimum width of 750 metres, and wholly within Turkey, a member of Nato.

Then consider the 'previous' that the weapons allegedly on that ship, have killed numerous Ukrainians.

I know that the Bosporus is 'international waters', and I know that Turkey bats for both sides, but how many Ukrainian deaths could have been prevented by Turkey standing up to Russia?

I don't think anything that increases the chance of either side trying to sink cargo ships as they pass through the largest city in Europe would be a good idea.

 

[Sirnormangall]

I don't think anything that increases the chance of either side trying to sink cargo ships as they pass through the largest city in Europe would be a good idea.

There’s no way they should be sinking ships as they pass through the Bosporus, but is there any way that they can stop them leaving or entering the Black Sea? Probably not without a serious escalation.
Hopefully they’ll be an increase in airborne attacks on the Russian Black Sea fleet and the Kerch bridge.
Russia says it destroyed the aircraft that damaged its ship- has that been verified?

 

[Eric the meek]

Nobody is advocating sinking any vessels. I'm advocating Turkey policing the Bosporus to save lives.

 

[Sid and the Sharknados]

Nobody is advocating sinking any vessels. I'm advocating Turkey policing the Bosporus to save lives.

My understanding is that under the Montreux Convention Turkey is obliged to allow merchant ships and warships with their home port in the Black Sea through the Bosphurus.

 

[Eric the meek]

My understanding is that under the Montreux Convention Turkey is obliged to allow merchant ships and warships with their home port in the Black Sea through the Bosphurus.

I thought there were a lot of Russian ships with their home port in the Black Sea !

A google of the Montreux Convention reveals that it is a whole lot more complex than that. There appear to be a plethora of loopholes and exceptions to the 'warships' part of your comment, some of which have been exercised by Turkey, and others argued against by Russia. I won't pretend to be across them all.

As an overarching policy, I agree that we in the west should fulfill our obligations to any conventions we are signed up to, even though we know full well that Russia would flout them in a heartbeat if it thought it was in its interests to do so.

 

[raymondo]

Seems like damage in the port will be more than one ship. Page down the thread to see more details about what the ship was likely carrying, from MAKS and Tendar.

 

[Sid and the Sharknados]

I thought there were a lot of Russian ships with their home port in the Black Sea !

A google of the Montreux Convention reveals that it is a whole lot more complex than that. There appear to be a plethora of loopholes and exceptions to the 'warships' part of your comment, some of which have been exercised by Turkey, and others argued against by Russia. I won't pretend to be across them all.

As an overarching policy, I agree that we in the west should fulfill our obligations to any conventions we are signed up to, even though we know full well that Russia would flout them in a heartbeat if it thought it was in its interests to do so.

Of course it's more complicated than that, I summarised the relevant parts of a 29 article treaty into a single sentence.
The treaty is available here, if you're interested: https://treaties.un.org/pages/showDetails.aspx?objid=0800000280166981
From pages 215 to 241. Half of those pages are in French so it's not actually that long a read.
Turkey has refused permission for Russian warships to sail through the Bosphorus on numerous occasions since recognising the conflict as a war.
Since the Novocherkassk is was part of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, it was allowed to pass through the straits to return to its home base under article 19:
"Notwithstanding the prohibition of passage laid down in paragraph 2 above, vessels of war belonging to belligerent Powers, whether they are Black Sea Powers or not, which have become separated from their bases, may return thereto."

 

[fly high]

Have I got this straight. The Novercherkassk was blown up while in port on Crimea, to get there it had to pass through the Bosporus. As NATO & therefore Turkey deem Crimea to be part of Ukraine & is being illegally occupied by Russia no Russian warship can claim it as it's home port. That being the case Turkey would be within it rights under the Montreux Convention to refuse passage. Is that right or have I missed something?

 

[A1X]

Have I got this straight. The Novercherkassk was blown up while in port on Crimea, to get there it had to pass through the Bosporus. As NATO & therefore Turkey deem Crimea to be part of Ukraine & is being illegally occupied by Russia no Russian warship can claim it as it's home port. That being the case Turkey would be within it rights under the Montreux Convention to refuse passage. Is that right or have I missed something?

Russia owned the port at Sevastopol even when Crimea was under Ukrainian control so that’s been Russian territory since pre-2014

 

[Sid and the Sharknados]

Russia owned the port at Sevastopol even when Crimea was under Ukrainian control so that’s been Russian territory since pre-2014

There may be a valid question as to when the Novercherkassk passed into the Mediterranean and whether Turkey should have stopped it then. It's possible that it had been outside the Black Sea since the start of the war though. (By which I mean, I don't know if it had been and can't easily find out).

 

[fly high]

Russia owned the port at Sevastopol even when Crimea was under Ukrainian control so that’s been Russian territory since pre-2014

OK thanks. Maybe Ukraine need to change this after they retake Crimea.

 

[Eric the meek]

Have I got this straight. The Novercherkassk was blown up while in port on Crimea, to get there it had to pass through the Bosporus. As NATO & therefore Turkey deem Crimea to be part of Ukraine & is being illegally occupied by Russia no Russian warship can claim it as it's home port. That being the case Turkey would be within it rights under the Montreux Convention to refuse passage. Is that right or have I missed something?

Don't you come on here with common sense details like that.

This forum is for posting 400 page treaties from 1936, in French, with the pre-WW2 Soviet Union and Yugoslavia as signatories.

(All the while, innocent Ukrainians are getting killed by shiploads of Russian weapons from upstanding nations like Iran, while Turkey has both the power and the opportunity to stop them, and fails to do so).

 

[Eric the meek]

Russia owned the port at Sevastopol even when Crimea was under Ukrainian control so that’s been Russian territory since pre-2014

I don't think that is correct. Maybe it's a matter of nomenclature, but I thought Russia leased Sevastopol from Ukraine, but did not own it prior to the war?

In any event, if the war is illegal, then the occupation of Crimea is illegal. It is not recognised as Russian territory.

Therefore the point @fly high makes is valid.

Consider this. If Russia were to take Odesa, and then assign it's Baltic fleet to Odesa as their home port, would the Montreux Convention dictate that the Baltic fleet now be allowed through the Bosporus?

 

[raymondo]

This is from Wiki... I don't know if all of this correct but I do believe Sevastopol was leased by Russia (not owned).

"In 1997, Russia and Ukraine signed the Partition Treaty, establishing two independent national fleets and dividing armaments and bases between them.[9] Ukraine also agreed to lease major parts of its new bases in Sevastopol to the Russian Black Sea Fleet until 2017. During the presidency of Victor Yushchenko (January 2005 – February 2010) the Ukrainian government declared that the lease would not be extended and that the fleet would have to leave Sevastopol by 2017.[10]"

 

[beorhthelm]

There may be a valid question as to when the Novercherkassk passed into the Mediterranean and whether Turkey should have stopped it then. It's possible that it had been outside the Black Sea since the start of the war though. (By which I mean, I don't know if it had been and can't easily find out).

wiki says it's been in Black Sea since 2022, damaged in previous attack. before that it was being used to supply Russian base in Syria.