[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Eric the meek]

Just had a look. It's 110% nonsense.

Tagging [MENTION=34242]Neville's Breakfast[/MENTION] who seemed interested.

Fair enough ! I value your opinion, so I won't even ask your reasons !

 

[Creaky]

It’s similar (and I do hate doing it, but the parallels are there) with German as opposed to Britain and France in the late 1930s. Ultimately a dictator doesn’t need to worry about what people think of them at home, so all you need to do is visibly keep a few noisy ones quiet and the rest will toe the line. But democracies don’t work that way and decisions have to be justified, evidenced and ultimately bought into. It’s why democracies don’t go to war with one another.

Closer parallels are surely with Crimea in 2014 - sanctions were imposed by the US, EU and many other countries including the U.K. Made no difference at all, practically speaking Crimea is now part of Russia.

 

[Weststander]

I think it’s pound signs.

I know Farage worked/works in The City, but I think of him as comically thick in certain ways.

With a jutting jaw, musing “I’m right wing, they say Putin is, wow ….. we’re the same!”

 

[Weststander]

Closer parallels are surely with Crimea in 2014 - sanctions were imposed by the US, EU and many other countries including the U.K. Made no difference at all, practically speaking Crimea is now part of Russia.

Covered on R5 tonight. The world was caught unprepared in 2014, with the sanctions imposed too late, weak, disparate and continental Europe were far more tied to Russian natural resources.

 

[vegster]

Not tangled. We can all see who the ****s are.

Unfortunately they have a following.

Behind it all, however, is an assumption the Putin has only limited ambition which stops, for example, short of the white cliffs of Dover, and the shining entrance to Trump Tower.

It is a pity that the noisiest and most strident of the talking heads are the most shameless .

Farrage. I mean, really. But come on, let's defund the BBC!

Farrage is a traitor who should be hanged. There, I said it!

Blimey Harry ! I'd rather he should be left in an airborne light aircraft after the pilot has parachuted out.

 

[Binney on acid]

https://youtu.be/InBXu-iY7cw

Apart from being a former KGB officer, and taxi driver, was Putin in 'The village people' ? I'm sure he's in this video, but it's grainy. Perhaps I'm mistaken.

 

[portlock seagull]

Joe Biden says cutting Russia off from the global Swift banking system is not being proposed "right now".

He says the sanctions already proposed on all the banks are of equal consequence and perhaps even exceed banning Russia from Swift.

"Let's have a conversation in another month or so to see if they're working," he says.

He says the move "is always an option but right now it's not the position the rest of Europe wishes to take."

UK PM Boris Johnson said earlier there was a potential to use Swift as a sanction and "nothing is off the table".

Ukraine are furious.

Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk

In fairness to world leaders, they’ve all got months of dithering to get through first. Why make bold decisions when you’re in charge eh? And put your money (hedge fund) where your mouth is? Plus there’s the small issue currently that we’ve the worst PM in our history, a proven liar with no integrity. Poland must be telling Ukraine “…told you” tonight. It feels like game set and match Russia already, Ukraine don’t really own a racket in this dangerous game. Their tanks will likely be in Kiev in just a few days, Ukraine doesn’t realistically stand a chance. The odds are stacked against them militarily and politically. Once occupied, it will be impossible to remove Russia and over time, just like Crimea, they will be forgotten and the dust settles on the new norm. It’s a very sad day for just about everyone except a handful of Kremlin cronies and Putin himself. Russians probably don’t want this either, but are powerless. Once again shows that you don’t need millions of people on side, just a few crazies with all the power is enough to bring the world to its knees as history consistently shows.

 

[Machiavelli]

Question is, will Putin get Ukraine completely under control? Much now depends on how willing the Ukrainians are to keep fighting to the bitter end. The longer the conventional forces hold out, the harder Putin will find it, even if he does eventually win, as he will then be in charge of a territory whose population is opposed to him as well the possibility of having access to weapons to continue localised armed resistance. The current war may well be short, Ukraine lacks any real geopgraphical features to assist in its defence, but the long term prospects could end up becoming a festering sore for Putin.

I hope you’re right, but the consensus seems to be that Kyiv will have fallen to the Russians by tomorrow. I’m no expert, but the notion of the country’s capital falling within 48 hours of the invasion doesn’t suggest the resistance is going to be particularly strong in relative terms.

I don't think there will be a bitter end, and I also don't think the Ukranians will capitulate that easily. The key question is what is Putin trying to achieve, and whether he maintains control of the situation.
It's more likely that his aim/s is/are more limited than most imagine, because if it's either occupation or installing a puppet regime, the Ukranian resistance and/or guerrilla warfare will be protracted. Note also that Putin has been associated with the deployment of chemical weapons in other conflicts and has in the last day or three more or less threatened the deployment of nuclear weapons.

 

[portlock seagull]

Question is, will Putin get Ukraine completely under control? Much now depends on how willing the Ukrainians are to keep fighting to the bitter end. The longer the conventional forces hold out, the harder Putin will find it, even if he does eventually win, as he will then be in charge of a territory whose population is opposed to him as well the possibility of having access to weapons to continue localised armed resistance. The current war may well be short, Ukraine lacks any real geopgraphical features to assist in its defence, but the long term prospects could end up becoming a festering sore for Putin.

Agree, a good summary too. Ukraine is solid tank country, as WW2 showed.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Fair enough ! I value your opinion, so I won't even ask your reasons !

That's very kind.

In a nutshell, it is just innuendo, and it uses false tropes. Akin to the 'Zaire rebels' back in the day who carried out a massacre, 'their faces bloated with cannabis', when, anyone who has ever had a toof knows, the very last thing on your mind would be 'lads, let's tool up and go on a rampage'

 

[Theatre of Trees]

I hope you’re right, but the consensus seems to be that Kyiv will have fallen to the Russians by tomorrow. I’m no expert, but the notion of the country’s capital falling within 48 hours of the invasion doesn’t suggest the resistance is going to be particularly strong in relative terms.

Ukraine's forces are smaller in number than Russia as well as lacking completely modern equipment. They do not have the capacity to defend all their borders without spreading themselves out to thinly. A convential quick moving war will not really suit them as the the country is largely open steppe - the Germans moved quickly through this region in WW2, both advancing and retreating. By reducing the size of a defensive perimeter, it then becomes easier to defend as long as you have a lifeline where supplies can get through. Ukraine my well have planned for this - the key area to watch is the border with Poland, Moldova and Romania.

 

[Theatre of Trees]

I don't think there will be a bitter end, and I also don't think the Ukranians will capitulate that easily. The key question is what is Putin trying to achieve, and whether he maintains control of the situation.
It's more likely that his aim/s is/are more limited than most imagine, because if it's either occupation or installing a puppet regime, the Ukranian resistance and/or guerrilla warfare will be protracted. Note also that Putin has been associated with the deployment of chemical weapons in other conflicts and has in the last day or three more or less threatened the deployment of nuclear weapons.

These are largely my thoughts too. The fighting to the end will be important though for the Ukrainian national psyche more than anything else (see Poland 1939 for an example) - going down to a brave defeat will reinforce their nationhood rather than reduce it.

I have a feeling Putin has miscalculated here even if he does win a quick victory.

 

[GrizzlingGammon]

1700 anti war protesters arrested in Russia.

 

[Coxovi]

I am late to this thread and not as current with the conflict as I should be. Being older I tend to reject any good vs. evil explanation for any conflict outside of WWII. But I would like to wish all the people of Ukraine that they, their families and their love ones are safe. Maybe I am not naive, nor hopeful, enough to believe we will ever stop killing each other, but I hope we never lose the humanity to see it for the meaningless murder that it is.

 

[portslade seagull]

1700 anti war protesters arrested in Russia.

Let's hope they are released safe and sound

 

[GrizzlingGammon]

Let's hope they are released safe and sound

Unfortunately in Russia, speaking out against the State is not treated lightly.

 

[A1X]

Well in news that won’t surprise anyone, Iran has sided with Russia over NATO

 

[peterward]

And for those saying that maybe Kyiv will be taken by tomorrow, well maybe.... but this just on BBC. (Slava Ukraini)

"All day long the Russian troops have been trying to take over an airfield at Hostomel, on the northern outskirts of the Ukrainian capital.

This airfield is of strategic importance: if captured it could become a springboard for the Russian army into Kyiv.

Judging from verified videos, at least two Russian helicopters were shot down over it. Journalists from CNN filmed a group of Russian paratroopers landing there while the Bellingcat investigative website said it had intelligence that 18 war planes with reinforcements were heading towards it from Russia.

Later in the evening it became clear that a heavy battle for Hostomel was raging and Ukrainian forces were using both airstrikes and artillery.

By 11pm Kyiv time (21:00 GMT) an official statement was released, saying that the airfield was back in the Ukrainian hands."

 

[beorhthelm]

reports Ukraine retaken Hostomel airfield NW of Kyiv. might delay attack on the capital.

elsewhere the Russian forces are avoiding cities, which makes sense for mechanised forces, but leaves them vulnerable to supply line attacks.

 

[amexer]

reports Ukraine retaken Hostomel airfield NW of Kyiv. might delay attack on the capital.

Only way is for millions to hit the streets