[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Eric the meek]

Split the land bridge to the Azov sea, take out the Kerch bridge then watch the Kremlin implode!

The Russians have already withdrawn the Black Sea fleet from Sevastopol in Crimea to Novorossiysk on the Russian Black Sea east coast. Not exactly a sign of confidence that Russia thinks it will hold onto Crimea.

But I wonder if the Kerch bridge will be left intact to leave an escape route for the Russian forces who want to save their own lives, and make the retaking of Crimea easier for Ukraine. Then, when it is blown, it could be hugely symbolic for Ukraine and the war - and become a symbol of Russians having had their arses kicked out of Ukraine.

 

[Triggaaar]

But I wonder if the Kerch bridge will be left intact to leave an escape route for the Russian forces who want to save their own lives, and make the retaking of Crimea easier for Ukraine. Then, when it is blown, it could be hugely symbolic for Ukraine and the war - and become a symbol of Russians having had their arses kicked out of Ukraine.

The problem is, while the bridge is there it's easy for Russia to resupply.

 

[Eric the meek]

The problem is, while the bridge is there it's easy for Russia to resupply.

There's a school of thought (I think it was retired UK Major General Chip Chapman) who suggested that Ukraine may not have to fight at all in Crimea. He suggested that if Ukraine can cut off the land bridge, the Russian army in Crimea will wither on the vine. Let's hope he's right.

 

[Triggaaar]

There's a school of thought (I think it was retired UK Major General Chip Chapman) who suggested that Ukraine may not have to fight at all in Crimea. He suggested that if Ukraine can cut off the land bridge, the Russian army in Crimea will wither on the vine. Let's hope he's right.

If Ukraine didn't need to take Crimea back, that would make sense. But surely if they don't fight, it will just keep going as a part of Russia, which isn't Ukraine's objective.

 

[Triggaaar]

Russia issues more threats, seemingly in an attempt to head off a Ukraine advance into Crimea:

Russia threatens Ukraine’s ‘decision-making centres’ if Kyiv uses western arms in Crimea

Use of US- and UK-supplied missiles would mark west’s ‘full involvement’, Russian defence minister says

www.theguardian.com

"Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defence minister, said on Tuesday that the potential use of US-supplied Himars and UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles against targets in Crimea would mark the west’s “full involvement in the conflict and would entail immediate strikes upon decision-making centres in Ukrainian territory”. Those are seen to include the Ukrainian presidential administration and intelligence headquarters."

If they're targeting intelligence headquarters etc, does that mean they're going to stop targeting hospitals etc?

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

The problem is, while the bridge is there it's easy for Russia to resupply.

That's why Ukraine are hitting rail and port infrastructure in the region.

I suspect the real reason they haven't downed the bridge, is because they know air defence is massed there and they want to be in range of their more plentiful missiles.

The fact that it gives Russians there an escape route also works in kind of a Sun Zsu, give your enemy an escape route kind of a way.

There's also an intriguing and more unlikely scenario, where they decide that a dash through undefended Bilhorod in Russia avoids them the mines and trenches in Ukraine and they can access the bridge from the Russian side, and either cross it, or blow it up from there.

 

[A1X]

There's also an intriguing and more unlikely scenario, where they decide that a dash through undefended Bilhorod in Russia avoids them the mines and trenches in Ukraine and they can access the bridge from the Russian side, and either cross it, or blow it up from there.

I don’t think this is a realistic scenario at all, invading Russian territory would be a significant escalation and lose them international support, plus it would allow Russia to try and draw (false) equivalency, no doubt fabricating a few “war crimes” against the native population.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

I don’t think this is a realistic scenario at all, invading Russian territory would be a significant escalation and lose them international support, plus it would allow Russia to try and draw (false) equivalency, no doubt fabricating a few “war crimes” against the native population.

It is unlikely. They would have to find a way of using no western supplied heavy equipment. Happily they've captured plenty of Russian tanks and armoured personnel carriers, so I wouldn't 100% rule it out. The temptation of a undefended route around those minefields and trenches must have a little allure.

 

[beorhthelm]

It is unlikely. They would have to find a way of using no western supplied heavy equipment. Happily they've captured plenty of Russian tanks and armoured personnel carriers, so I wouldn't 100% rule it out. The temptation of a undefended route around those minefields and trenches must have a little allure.

are you suggesting a 400km detour through Russia to come to Crimea from the east? they couldn't hope to maintain that type of operation logistically, and would have a hard time maintaining political support.

 

[Eric the meek]

If Ukraine didn't need to take Crimea back, that would make sense. But surely if they don't fight, it will just keep going as a part of Russia, which isn't Ukraine's objective.

Ukraine has been consistent in its desire to return Crimea to Ukrainian control. Chapman's thinking is, I believe, based on the idea that Ukraine will cut off the land bridge, leaving the Russian army exposed on the Crimean peninsula, and now supplied solely by the Kerch road/rail link.

But Russia knows that Ukraine, having reached the Black Sea coast, will then have the Kerch bridge within range of its long range HIMARS missiles. The Russian army will then be cut off on the Crimean peninsula, with ever-dwindling supplies. Chapman quoted some historical battle in Crimea, in which the enemy walked off the battlefield. (Unfortunately I can't find the clip). If the Kerch bridge is blown too early, there will be a lot of Russian troops stranded in Crimea. I assume Ukraine would prefer them to be dead or gone, hence my wondering if they will leave the Kerch bridge intact at first and wage a psy-ops war to try and get Russia to withdraw of its own accord.

Note that Shoigu has warned the west not to use Himars and Storm Shadows against targets in Crimea. What he will do or not do in response, (e.g. stop targeting hospitals) is not really the point. He has issued this warning for a reason. He thinks he will lose an engagement with Himars and Storm Shadows.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

are you suggesting a 400km detour through Russia to come to Crimea from the east? they couldn't hope to maintain that type of operation logistically, and would have a hard time maintaining political support.

No. I 'm not suggesting anything.

 

[Triggaaar]

Ukraine has been consistent in its desire to return Crimea to Ukrainian control. Chapman's thinking is, I believe, based on the idea that Ukraine will cut off the land bridge, leaving the Russian army exposed on the Crimean peninsula, and now supplied solely by the Kerch road/rail link.

But Russia knows that Ukraine, having reached the Black Sea coast, will then have the Kerch bridge within range of its long range HIMARS missiles. The Russian army will then be cut off on the Crimean peninsula, with ever-dwindling supplies.

But those supplies will only be dwindling if they are engaged with Ukraine, and if Ukraine aren't attacking Crimea (having cut off the bridge) what will the Russians in Crimea be firing at?

 

[Eric the meek]

But those supplies will only be dwindling if they are engaged with Ukraine, and if Ukraine aren't attacking Crimea (having cut off the bridge) what will the Russians in Crimea be firing at?

Fair point. Hopefully they will be firing at imaginary Ukrainians until their ammo runs out. Yesterday, @raymondo detailed the blasts at the Russian ammo depot at Rykove on the main E105 into Crimea. I didn't appreciate the significance at first.

Also yesterday, I saw a Ukrainian military blogger use the term 'starve the bear'. This tactic would seem preferable to attacking Russian troops who are well dug in.
History tells us that Crimea is a real graveyard.

 

[peterward]

Russian fascist and former Donetsk peoples Republic commander Igor Girkin aka stelkov, who had the shit kicked out of him a couple of weeks back, is clearly undeterred, now slagging off Putin.

A window fall awaits?

 

[maltaseagull]

"Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defence minister, said on Tuesday that the potential use of US-supplied Himars and UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles against targets in Crimea would mark the west’s “full involvement in the conflict and would entail immediate strikes upon decision-making centres in Ukrainian territory”. Those are seen to include the Ukrainian presidential administration and intelligence headquarters."

If they're targeting intelligence headquarters etc, does that mean they're going to stop targeting hospitals etc?

I do wonder if they are capable of actually targeting anything. They seem to randomly attack anywhere in Ukraine. Mostly residential areas.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Fair point. Hopefully they will be firing at imaginary Ukrainians until their ammo runs out. Yesterday, @raymondo detailed the blasts at the Russian ammo depot at Rykove on the main E105 into Crimea. I didn't appreciate the significance at first.

Also yesterday, I saw a Ukrainian military blogger use the term 'starve the bear'. This tactic would seem preferable to attacking Russian troops who are well dug in.
History tells us that Crimea is a real graveyard.

Yes. The Ukraine authorities very happy to play the long game and save as many of their troops as possible. They've impressed me at every turn. But however much they hammer Russian logistics, terrible days remain ahead.

 

[peterward]

Some pretty graphic video has been posted on Ukraine_defence of trench warfare. The Russians seem to be running at them and just get dropped

I've seen the video.

Ukrainian special forces storm a Russian trench use smoke grenades allegedly kill 10 Russians. You see 4 being shot on the Ukrainian SOF (special operations forces) gopro Head camera, but it's the last one that is shot on camera, that's a pretty big deal..... multiple accounts are saying its the most prominent Russian miliblogger wargonzo whose telegram channel has over 1.3 million subscribers. He's been embedded with Russian military units from day 1, calling for total annihilation of all Ukrainains and reporting a lot of their atrocities on his telegram channel, seems he's now been taken out?

I won't post the video here, im pretty squeemish and dont like graphic videos, my wife sent it to me, there's no gore, no blood/guts but there is 4 Russians getting shot dead, and the last with long ginger beard is allegedly wargonzo.

This is the ukrainain twitter site where its at @grntmedia and the opening still frame if you yourself choose to view (currently 2 days ago). Its mostly regular news updates, so you won't accidently see anything else graphic there.

 

[raymondo]

Russian fascist and former Donetsk peoples Republic commander Igor Girkin aka stelkov, who had the shit kicked out of him a couple of weeks back, is clearly undeterred, now slagging off Putin.

A window fall awaits?

A pretty strident speech ... can't see him lasting long

 

[Eric the meek]

A pretty strident speech ... can't see him lasting long

Usual caveats with announcements by Russians:

It might be true, might have been made under duress, or might be some elaborate deceit. A bit like the Prigozhin spat with the Russian MOD/Shoigu.

If it's true, then he felt safe enough to make the speech to not be in immediate danger from Putin. Perhaps the balance of power in Moscow is shifting.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Usual caveats with announcements by Russians:

It might be true, might have been made under duress, or might be some elaborate deceit. A bit like the Prigozhin spat with the Russian MOD/Shoigu.

If it's true, then he felt safe enough to make the speech to not be in immediate danger from Putin. Perhaps the balance of power in Moscow is shifting.

The fear factor is gone. Sure the little guys will still get plucked off the street for wearing the wrong coloured jumper, but anyone who has 10 to 15 armed men who will defend him is likely invulnerable, such is the over commitment of resources into Ukraine.

This Prigozhin contracts thing is as far as I (we) know still unresolved and this will come to a head in the next week or so. Without an army, the guy is probably a gonner, so fascinating to see how it plays out. My guess is that Putin will back down first on this. But there is a high level of unpredictability on how all these events will play out.