[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Weststander]

Interesting and positive R5 interview from 16:23 in the last ten minutes, from the former head of US forces Europe.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_radio_five_live

Particularly at the end, devastating news for Russia with the UK donating Storm Shadow missiles. The Russian fleet in and around Crimea becomes an easy target.

 

[Insel affe]

Interesting and positive R5 interview from 16:23 in the last ten minutes, from the former head of US forces Europe.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_radio_five_live

Particularly at the end, devastating news for Russia with the UK donating Storm Shadow missiles. The Russian fleet in and around Crimea becomes an easy target.

And for us when the Russians attack fibre optic cables and other connecting lines deep in the north Atlantic and beyond as retaliation.

 

[Weststander]

And for us when the Russians attack fibre optic cables and other connecting lines deep in the north Atlantic and beyond as retaliation.

So let's all give up now, betray the Ukrainian people, be submissive and eternally sad .

There are consequences in standing up to fascist warmongers. Half the world went through immense hardship 1939-1945, Hitler liked vengeance so much he named weopons after the word, but he was defeated and swathes of Europe/Asia got their liberty back.

There's a price.

 

[SeagullinExile]

And for us when the Russians attack fibre optic cables and other connecting lines deep in the north Atlantic and beyond as retaliation.

They wouldn’t dare. It would be an act of war. NATO would have to invoke Article 5.

Then we’d probably all be toes up within a month. Sobering thought.

 

[A1X]

And for us when the Russians attack fibre optic cables and other connecting lines deep in the north Atlantic and beyond as retaliation.

Not convinced they’re capable of it TBH, they blew the Nordstream pipe but that’s shallower by many factors

 

[SeagullinExile]

Not convinced they’re capable of it TBH, they blew the Nordstream pipe but that’s shallower by many factors

They’re capable of it. I just don’t think they’d have the balls to do it.

 

[Weststander]

They wouldn’t dare. It would be an act of war. NATO would have to invoke Article 5.

Then we’d probably all be toes up within a month. Sobering thought.

A losing Putin has and will play dirty, plus he has some disgusting allies such as the Iranian government who stoop to any level. You can bet there’ll be another contrived energy crisis starting in the autumn.

But NATO/the West can screw Russia more if need be. He can receive as many Iranian drones and missiles as he wants, but his country will be a pariah on some many practical levels.

 

[Weststander]

Not convinced they’re capable of it TBH, they blew the Nordstream pipe but that’s shallower by many factors

They’ve practiced with deep sea submersibles. But this assumes the west have no communications contingencies. The West has had a long time to plan, knowing Putin and the Chinese are envious ‘bad actors’ will ill intent for a long time now.

 

[A1X]

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Hmmm... I don't feel the US needed to say anything in response, as Zelensky hadn't directly criticised them. Better to leave Ukraine to decide what statements they make at this time.

The US is just saying Ukraine has what it needs. Nothing controversial in that. Probably all part of the psychological warfare. Ukraine still decides when it moves.

 

[Eric the meek]

Not convinced they’re capable of it TBH, they blew the Nordstream pipe but that’s shallower by many factors

Independent defence analyst Hisutton gives a decent grounding in Russian Navy seabed warfare capabilities.

 

[beorhthelm]

Independent defence analyst Hisutton gives a decent grounding in Russian Navy seabed warfare capabilities.

after a year on in this conflict we've seen how much high tech capabilities Russia has. chasm between claims and theoretical abilites, and what they can deploy. they couldnt even protect their flag ship cruiser from a nation with negliable navy.

 

[SeagullinExile]

after a year on in this conflict we've seen how much high tech capabilities Russia has. chasm between claims and theoretical abilites, and what they can deploy. they couldnt even protect their flag ship cruiser from a nation with negliable navy.

Tbf, the Neptunes that sank her were from a land based battery, but I get your point.

 

[sparkie]

It could well be that this is made up but you never know...

 

[Insel affe]

So let's all give up now, betray the Ukrainian people, be submissive and eternally sad .

There are consequences in standing up to fascist warmongers. Half the world went through immense hardship 1939-1945, Hitler liked vengeance so much he named weopons after the word, but he was defeated and swathes of Europe/Asia got their liberty back.

There's a price.

Did I say give, get down off your high horse, it’s sending you giddy

 

[GT49er]

It could well be that this is made up but you never know...

Won't even merit an RIP thread on NSC!

 

[Triggaaar]

It could well be that this is made up but you never know...

I know nothing about that, so don't take this as a suggestion it's not true:
I thought Lukashenko was on Russia's side, so why would they want to poison him?

 

[raymondo]

I know nothing about that, so don't take this as a suggestion it's not true:
I thought Lukashenko was on Russia's side, so why would they want to poison him?

Only reason I can think of is if Lukashenko is removed, Russia might move in and take firm control. You'd think they have enough on their plate for now though.

 

[Triggaaar]

Only reason I can think of is if Lukashenko is removed, Russia might move in and take firm control. You'd think they have enough on their plate for now though.

I wonder how their military leaders would think about that? Not too well I'd have guessed.

 

[peterward]

I know nothing about that, so don't take this as a suggestion it's not true:
I thought Lukashenko was on Russia's side, so why would they want to poison him?

Lukashenko wasn't on anyones side but his own.

For decades he tried to play West off against Russia and stay somewhere between the two with feet in both camps. That all changed when he overwhelmingly lost the presendential election, but refused to leave, arrested all opposition and brutally put down protestors (with Moscow help). Lukashenko had then lost the West who condemned his actions and rightly state he is NOT the legitimate president of Belarus anymore.

Then the only gig in town for a much hated domestic usurper is Putins protection.

Putin has for years harboured the dream of Belarus reintergrating fully with Russia in a USSR 2 (same as he does with Ukraine) and there was a decades old framework called "nation state" agreement for that to happen, that previously Lukashenko had fought tooth and nail to resist, citing he would never hand over Belarus sovereignty, until he lost the presidency and now only survives by being propped up by Putin.

Putin has since pushed him really hard for the full integration of Belarus into Russia and Lukashenko has had to dance to that tune as only option to personally survive, they've made agreements more recently to fully align economies and trade (under Moscow rules) as bridging steps to full reintegration.

Since before the war started, Lukashenko has been strong armed into allowing Belarus territory to be used by Russia to launch attacks from and fire missiles, the vast majority of Belarussians don't support this and see Ukrainians as slavic brothers. There's a good few political commentators who don't actually think Lukashenko is comfortable with it, but he's now a hostage to fortune and only survives as a puppet or vassel of Putin and like all despots, will do whatever he has to for his own survival.

Even still, he's not allowed his military to get directly involved as much as Putin had pressed him to, and he has dragged his heels as much as he possibly can get away with when Russia has consistently demanded more from Belarus.

So if this article is true, it shouldn't surprise at all, Putin has zero loyalty to Lukashenko, he wants full control of Belarus and every step he has done to prop up Lukashenko is with that ultimate aim, Lukashenko wouldn't have survived without Moscow and has lost his ability to manoeuvre.

Lukashenko suddenly having a heart attack, like former Moscow Obstinate foreign minister will make perfect sense, if/when you see the new puppet that will be installed, no doubt willing to sign Belarus over fully to Russia and use its military to attack Ukraine.

Theres no love lost between Putin and Lukashenko, its a tyrants marriage of convenience and necessity.