[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Weststander]

To put the following in context, Russia started the illegal war with 3,000 operational tanks.

An average of 800 Russian servicemen are dying each day, more than 4x the number in June/July 2022.

 

[jakarta]

Finland reversing it's neutrality since 1945, with a new 830 mile NATO border that Russia can't man, and a military of c.200,000.

This is the direct polar opposite of Putin's stated aim at the beginning of his war. He wanted less NATO, but now he's got even more NATO.

And it's all, all of it, entirely his own fault.

Now ratified, Brian Eno lays it on the line to Putin with some yodeling...

 

[Eric the meek]

Lost amongst the Finland-Nato news today, is this interesting - and significant - analysis from Sky News.

'Russian authorities can't get story straight on blogger 'assassination' - with six different explanations released'

• The Russian National Anti-Terrorism Committee claimed Ukrainian special services collaborated with the Anti-Corruption Fund, an organisation founded by opposition figure Alexei Navalny, to plan the attack;
• Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the Ukrainian government may be behind Tatarsky's death;
• The Russian Investigative Committee classified it as a terrorist incident planned in Ukraine, and detained Daria Trepova on suspicion of the attack;
• Some military bloggers claimed the explosion was carried out by Ukrainian special services;
• Russian Orthodox Church leader Patriarch Kirill linked Mr Tatarsky's death to a dispute over the eviction of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church from a monastery in Kyiv;
• The Russian-backed deputy of the Zaporizhia region, Vladimir Rogov, attributed the alleged murder to Mr Tatarsky's Telegram following and his donation drives for Russian forces, and the fact he listened to both the Russian and Ukrainian perspectives.

The Institute for the Study of War said: "The range of various official responses is notably disjointed, with a lack of consensus among official Russian sources."
It added the "absence of a coherent narrative in the pro-Russian information space" was reminiscent of Ukraine's Kharkiv counteroffensive in autumn, when the Kremlin "failed to define a rhetorical line" and "caused an information space breakdown".

 

[sparkie]

 

[The Clamp]

To put the following in context, Russia started the illegal war with 3,000 operational tanks.

An average of 800 Russian servicemen are dying each day, more than 4x the number in June/July 2022.

View attachment 159259

We keep hearing these sort of stats but can they really be true?
Every day Russia is reportedly ready to collapse, that they cannot go on like this.

Yet there they still are, fighting and brutalising Ukrainians.

It’s just not adding up.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

We keep hearing these sort of stats but can they really be true?
Every day Russia is reportedly ready to collapse, that they cannot go on like this.

Yet there they still are, fighting and brutalising Ukrainians.

It’s just not adding up.

I see the same and like you I wonder how much of it is clickbait or wishful thinking.

The way I look at this is that now the entire resources of the Russian state are being poured into this effort, plus they are calling in massive favours from their few remaining allies. On their current performance, it probably isn't sustainable, but for such a militaristic country, with such wealth of natural resources, part of the outcome of this war will be about who can outlast the other.

The success or otherwise of the coming Ukraine offensive will define this era.

If Putin's forces can repel them and inflict the sort of losses of men and equipment they've been suffering, then he will fancy his chances of holding the ground they have won so far with a view to salami slicing his way to Kiev as soon as the next Republican president wins and turns off the military aid taps. If this happens the next generation in the western world will live in fear of emboldened creeping authoritarianism.

In Ukraine can smash the Russian lines, destroy the bridge, force mass surrenders of encircled troops, Putin will get the Gadaffi treatment but more importantly Putinism as an idea will have been humiliated and defeated, making future conflicts in the South China Sea and elsewhere much less likely.

We should be pouring every available military resource in their direction.

 

[sparkie]

Looks like the long awaited counterattack may soon be on the cards, now that the force has been built up and the weather gets warmer.

 

[raymondo]

Here's a recent transcript from the US Defence department on their support for Ukraine. Well worth a read...some journo Q&As at the end.

 

[Eric the meek]

We keep hearing these sort of stats but can they really be true?
Every day Russia is reportedly ready to collapse, that they cannot go on like this.

Yet there they still are, fighting and brutalising Ukrainians.

It’s just not adding up.

The following is taken verbatim from the transcript of the US Defense Department briefing in post #10,651.

'We absolutely are seeing the devastating loss of life that Russia is experiencing, with Wagner forces essentially being, you know, thrown -- thrown into a meat grinder and Russian forces being fixed in position because of the -- the robust Ukrainian defenses.'

That was a glimpse at the macro level. I've no reason to believe that the briefing was not accurate. Several other recent reports support the general narrative.

Now take a look at the micro level, with this detailed report from the BBC, on one supposedly elite Russian regiment based at Kostromo to the north east of Moscow.

The cost of the Ukraine war for one Russian regiment

The decline of the "elite" 331st regiment can be measured in loss to machinery and personnel.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[A1X]

Utterly horrific thread about what the Russians have been up to in Ukraine with the local population. It's a tough read so please be advised;

 

[driddles]

Looks like the long awaited counterattack may soon be on the cards, now that the force has been built up and the weather gets warmer.

Don't think it will start for a few weeks, probably not until May. Think you will see an increase in long range strikes behind russian lines to soften them up before the real counter attack.

Still need time for the ground to firm up and there have been videos this week from Ukrainian soldiers showing up to 3' of snow. Doubt anyone is moving quickly through that for a while.

We'll also see the Ukrainians take the announcements of the counter attack up a notch, good to mess with the minds of russian soldiers, and to keep russian command scrambling trying to figure out where the counter attack will be.

 

[raymondo]

The following is taken verbatim from the transcript of the US Defense Department briefing in post #10,651.

'We absolutely are seeing the devastating loss of life that Russia is experiencing, with Wagner forces essentially being, you know, thrown -- thrown into a meat grinder and Russian forces being fixed in position because of the -- the robust Ukrainian defenses.'

That was a glimpse at the macro level. I've no reason to believe that the briefing was not accurate. Several other recent reports support the general narrative.

Now take a look at the micro level, with this detailed report from the BBC, on one supposedly elite Russian regiment based at Kostromo to the north east of Moscow.

The cost of the Ukraine war for one Russian regiment

The decline of the "elite" 331st regiment can be measured in loss to machinery and personnel.

www.bbc.co.uk

Interesting research done for the article

 

[raymondo]

Utterly horrific thread about what the Russians have been up to in Ukraine with the local population. It's a tough read so please be advised;

Horrific, but unsurprising given the invaders' track record.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Procedure is everything regrettably

Not quite. Reputation is also important and the UN has undermined itself.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

To put the following in context, Russia started the illegal war with 3,000 operational tanks.

An average of 800 Russian servicemen are dying each day, more than 4x the number in June/July 2022.

View attachment 159259

Never mind the International Criminal Court putting Putin on trial. The Russian people should be first in line for his callous disregard for them.

 

[NooBHA]

Never mind the International Criminal Court putting Putin on trial. The Russian people should be first in line for his callous disregard for them.

Maybe they will send him a statue soon

 

[sparkie]

Sanctions starting to show some results

 

[Johnny RoastBeef]

Sanctions starting to show some results

The ruble is not tanking, just reverting to its natural level. Don't believe everything you read on twitter.

When Putin first invaded Ukraine the ruble did tank, to counter this and prop up the currency he ordered that 80% of any money that Russian businesses made overseas had to be swapped into rubles. This caused a spike which is now receding.

 

[sparkie]

Interesting :



This is exactly the location to hit if the counteroffensive is targeted at Melitopol then the Asov coast and Crimea.

 

[Weststander]

We keep hearing these sort of stats but can they really be true?
Every day Russia is reportedly ready to collapse, that they cannot go on like this.

Yet there they still are, fighting and brutalising Ukrainians.

It’s just not adding up.

I never believe the regime’s going to collapse. I never post that.

Hitler, Stalin weren’t over thrown from within. The slightest noise that someone might be opposed = a lifetime in a concentration camp or a fall from a balcony. Putin and his tiny cabal control the media, faux parliament, FSB, money and military. Backed by Iran, China and North Korea.

What we do have, just like Stalin, is someone who doesn’t care if multi 100,000’s of men die.