[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Eric the meek]

As much as I hope the rumours, that Putin's grip on power is failing, are true, I'm very sceptical about this civil war narrative, as it's likely just western propaganda. Much like the 'Putin is terminally ill' stuff.

Healthy scepticism is very wise in this war. Note Raymondo's verdict on the Mirror article.

However....

There are 190 different ethnic groups in Russia, one of the most diverse nations on earth. The trouble is, all the members of those ethnic groups have been born, lived their whole lives, and died during more than a century of Russian oppression, since the Russian revolution in 1917, and probably well before that. Local regional warlords will have noticed what Ukraine has achieved against a slowly weakening Moscow. China will also have noticed.

I wouldn't necessarily dismiss talk of a civil war, just because there is a bogus report from the Mirror.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Healthy scepticism is very wise in this war. Note Raymondo's verdict on the Mirror article.

However....

There are 190 different ethnic groups in Russia, one of the most diverse nations on earth. The trouble is, all the members of those ethnic groups have been born, lived their whole lives, and died during more than a century of Russian oppression, since the Russian revolution in 1917, and probably well before that. Local regional warlords will have noticed what Ukraine has achieved against a slowly weakening Moscow. China will also have noticed.

I wouldn't necessarily dismiss talk of a civil war, just because there is a bogus report from the Mirror.

Yes, also of course, Putin is very much drawing on those ethnic groups for conscription, which is only likely to increase the chances of them rebelling.

 

[raymondo]

Healthy scepticism is very wise in this war. Note Raymondo's verdict on the Mirror article.

However....

There are 190 different ethnic groups in Russia, one of the most diverse nations on earth. The trouble is, all the members of those ethnic groups have been born, lived their whole lives, and died during more than a century of Russian oppression, since the Russian revolution in 1917, and probably well before that. Local regional warlords will have noticed what Ukraine has achieved against a slowly weakening Moscow. China will also have noticed.

I wouldn't necessarily dismiss talk of a civil war, just because there is a bogus report from the Mirror.

I agree with that @Eric the meek , the Mirror report was misleading but the real risk exists.
Also, I read that mobilisations have disproportionately targetted the far flung ethnic regions (I haven't seen proof, but...).
We all know what happened to the Roman empire when they failed to look after the edges of their territory in a positive way. Here's hoping , and yes, China will be watching very closely.

 

[raymondo]

Yes, also of course, Putin is very much drawing on those ethnic groups for conscription, which is only likely to increase the chances of them rebelling.

Just read your post re conscription , honest gov... I didn't copy ya.

 

[Mellotron]

We both have no idea in fairness, if you can’t see the risk that’s up to you and you have more faith in that madman being pragmatic than I do. I doubt you called what has happened in Ukraine pre war, with civilians and hospitals being targeted. The guy is unhinged, our best hope is that he doesn‘t want to sign his own death warrant.

He might be slightly unhinged, but destroying Russia would go against his entire life's work. He is ALL about preserving the legacy of Russia and the Soviet Empire. It would go completely against everything he has spent so much time working towards, to then be the one to destroy Russia's legacy and maybe even it's existence.

It wouldn't make any sense at all.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

He might be slightly unhinged, but destroying Russia would go against his entire life's work. He is ALL about preserving the legacy of Russia and the Soviet Empire. It would go completely against everything he has spent so much time working towards, to then be the one to destroy Russia's legacy and maybe even it's existence.

It wouldn't make any sense at all.

I reckon Putin started out trying out by trying to extend his legacy. His daily focus now though is to avoid being murdered. For that to happen, many Russians will have to die.

 

[Eric the meek]

He might be slightly unhinged, but destroying Russia would go against his entire life's work. He is ALL about preserving the legacy of Russia and the Soviet Empire. It would go completely against everything he has spent so much time working towards, to then be the one to destroy Russia's legacy and maybe even it's existence.

It wouldn't make any sense at all.

I agree with the general tenet of your post. He is driven by the legacy he wants to leave. He is tormented by the travesty (as he sees it) of the break up of the old Soviet Union, and seeks its restoration.

But that is where my agreement with you begins to waver. You are being pragmatic and logical. Pragmatism and logic have no place in Putin's mind.
He has spectacularly failed to win his own war, that he needlessly started. His solution? Double down. Through Russian state TV, he is now threatening to drop nukes on the Yellowstone super-volcano.

With its vast area and largely untapped natural resources, Russia could have been at least as wealthy as Canada or Australia. Instead of using that wealth to generate more wealth, and share it out with the people, building schools and hospitals, he carved it up for thugs to keep him in power, spending the rest on vast quantities of weapons to bully neighbouring countries.

He miscalculated on an epic, continental scale. Given his history, why do you think he won't do things that won't make any sense at all?

 

[aolstudios]

I agree with the general tenet of your post. He is driven by the legacy he wants to leave. He is tormented by the travesty (as he sees it) of the break up of the old Soviet Union, and seeks its restoration.

But that is where my agreement with you begins to waver. You are being pragmatic and logical. Pragmatism and logic have no place in Putin's mind.
He has spectacularly failed to win his own war, that he needlessly started. His solution? Double down. Through Russian state TV, he is now threatening to drop nukes on the Yellowstone super-volcano.

With its vast area and largely untapped natural resources, Russia could have been at least as wealthy as Canada or Australia. Instead of using that wealth to generate more wealth, and share it out with the people, building schools and hospitals, he carved it up for thugs to keep him in power, spending the rest on vast quantities of weapons to bully neighbouring countries.

He miscalculated on an epic, continental scale. Given his history, why do you think he won't do things that won't make any sense at all?

This ^
Terrifyingly

 

[raymondo]

He might be slightly unhinged, but destroying Russia would go against his entire life's work. He is ALL about preserving the legacy of Russia and the Soviet Empire. It would go completely against everything he has spent so much time working towards, to then be the one to destroy Russia's legacy and maybe even it's existence.

It wouldn't make any sense at all.

I do hope you're right but... I'm not so sure.
I believe his overriding goal is feeding his dominant ego. It's paramount to him that it's HE who is the one to restore the Soviet Empire. He seems unconcerned about the 100s of thousands of young men that have escaped mobilisation to live abroad, and unconcerned about the 100,000 Russians that have died in Ukraine (and hopefully many more if you don't withdraw or surrender...sorry guys ). I think he will happily sacrifice 100s thousands more in his attempt to recreate an Empire... that will be empty of educated young men to build the future and pay the pensions of his beloved Russian people. To me, that's a bit unhinged.

 

[chickens]

I agree with the general tenet of your post. He is driven by the legacy he wants to leave. He is tormented by the travesty (as he sees it) of the break up of the old Soviet Union, and seeks its restoration.

But that is where my agreement with you begins to waver. You are being pragmatic and logical. Pragmatism and logic have no place in Putin's mind.
He has spectacularly failed to win his own war, that he needlessly started. His solution? Double down. Through Russian state TV, he is now threatening to drop nukes on the Yellowstone super-volcano.

With its vast area and largely untapped natural resources, Russia could have been at least as wealthy as Canada or Australia. Instead of using that wealth to generate more wealth, and share it out with the people, building schools and hospitals, he carved it up for thugs to keep him in power, spending the rest on vast quantities of weapons to bully neighbouring countries.

He miscalculated on an epic, continental scale. Given his history, why do you think he won't do things that won't make any sense at all?

My personal hope on this is, is that historically Putin has been an asset to Russia, allowing its wealth to be controlled among an inner circle of Oligarchs and hawkish nationalists.

He’s now demonstrably not winning the war in Ukraine, and the logistics in terms of raw materials, ammunition and replacement weaponry don’t seem to be available to him.

If he’s seen as embarrassing Russia on the global stage, which frankly, he is, it’s my belief the sharks will begin to circle. I don’t think Putin will begin to make rational decisions, I think a group of comparative grown-ups within Russia will step in and seek a way out that allows Russia to lick its wounds and rebuild. It may be peaceful and controlled, “handing over to the younger generation” or it may be brutal and bloody, but I don’t think we can assume that post-Putin is necessarily easier than the Putin era.

Whoever takes over is likely to be just as anti-West as the incumbent, in fact I suspect a lot of the same faces may sit in the background. The question would be, can whoever takes over resist the overly hawkish figures that have increasingly held sway in Putin’s time.

 

[Eric the meek]

This ^
Terrifyingly

My apologies. The joys of Russian state TV. I do appreciate that some people find it frightening. That is why I don't post clips of it these days.
My take on it, is that the stuff they talk about, is confirmation that they live in a world of their own. A world with no judgement, no balance, no perspective, no finesse, no feedback, and no disagreement. A world in which they truly believe that the one who makes the loudest, worst threats, wins the argument.

Here's an alternative view of Russian military:
1) When Biden visited Kyiv, they tried a test launch of a Sarmat missile. It blew up on launch.
2) In one of the twitter replies on the Yellowstone clip (I won't post it), the writer said that Russian nukes pose more threat to Russia than anyone else!

 

[Official Old Man]

Did anyone read up about the US Presidents trip to Kyiv? Seems he went by train from Poland on a 20 hour round trip and only told 1 outsider, RUSSIA!
The thinking being that the train would look out of place hurtling through the country and a great target, so the US secret service told the Russins about the train and who was on it. They reckon that killing the President would cause more trouble if they had done it on purpose than a random missile.
Meanwhile, Ukraine Rail appologised that only 90% of their trains ran on time that day. 90% and they're at war.

 

[A1X]

Did anyone read up about the US Presidents trip to Kyiv? Seems he went by train from Poland on a 20 hour round trip and only told 1 outsider, RUSSIA!
The thinking being that the train would look out of place hurtling through the country and a great target, so the US secret service told the Russins about the train and who was on it. They reckon that killing the President would cause more trouble if they had done it on purpose than a random missile.
Meanwhile, Ukraine Rail appologised that only 90% of their trains ran on time that day. 90% and they're at war.

Makes you worry who Southern trains have been at war with for the last 15 years

 

[jcdenton08]

Makes you worry who Southern trains have been at war with for the last 15 years

Me, it feels like. Absolutely shocking

 

[jakarta]

Me, it feels like. Absolutely shocking

Where is Mussolini when you need him?

 

[jcdenton08]

Where is Mussolini when you need him?

Dead?

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

My personal hope on this is, is that historically Putin has been an asset to Russia, allowing its wealth to be controlled among an inner circle of Oligarchs and hawkish nationalists.

He’s now demonstrably not winning the war in Ukraine, and the logistics in terms of raw materials, ammunition and replacement weaponry don’t seem to be available to him.

If he’s seen as embarrassing Russia on the global stage, which frankly, he is, it’s my belief the sharks will begin to circle. I don’t think Putin will begin to make rational decisions, I think a group of comparative grown-ups within Russia will step in and seek a way out that allows Russia to lick its wounds and rebuild. It may be peaceful and controlled, “handing over to the younger generation” or it may be brutal and bloody, but I don’t think we can assume that post-Putin is necessarily easier than the Putin era.

Whoever takes over is likely to be just as anti-West as the incumbent, in fact I suspect a lot of the same faces may sit in the background. The question would be, can whoever takes over resist the overly hawkish figures that have increasingly held sway in Putin’s time.

Yeh, post Putin there is no prospect of some sort of Navalny figure who believes in democracy and the rule of law etc. But I think there is reason to be hopeful that his replacement will be full of bellicose rhetoric, but not actually do anything about it. If they want to sit in a country deny their shortcomings and bleat about the west, that's fine.

The trouble will be what to do with Ukraine. How do they get out without losing face? The best thing that could happen is that someone outside the current circle takes over, for example the oligarchs coalesce around one of their own and put him in. Then they can "temporarily withdraw from Ukraine," while they "regain their strength" on the basis that Putin made horrendous errors. If it was a continuity candidate like Medvedev or Gerasimov, they can't very well trash Putin's legacy as an excuse for a withdrawal. I can't see what other excuses are out there?

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Dead?

Well sometimes when you experience Southern trains, it does make you think he might actually not have been that bad after all

 

[A1X]

Where is Mussolini when you need him?

He's hanging around somewhere

 

[Mellotron]

He miscalculated on an epic, continental scale. Given his history, why do you think he won't do things that won't make any sense at all?

Because I can see the logic (whether I agree with it or not) in every other action he has taken. It has all been about either self or soviet preservation, or both.

Nuclear war achieves neither. It wouldn't help him towards what he wants, in fact the exact opposite. He would die (probably near immediately) his legacy being the man who had destroyed Russia.

I can't foresee a situation where that goal is what he wants to achieve.