[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[beorhthelm]

...
Some of the Russian regulars who've escaped Lyman will be good soldiers who just caught in an overall manoeuvre by the Ukrainians, and after regrouping they will fight again, and they will kill Ukrainians. Ukraine will not win this war by releasing Russian soldiers for free. And given that they could exchange POWs for Ukrainian POWs, it would make even less sense. Try explaining that to the families of lost Ukrainian soldiers - yeah, we could have got your son back in exchange for some Russians, but we decided not to bother.

maybe they are good soliders poorly led or maybe they are poor soldiers, they have just been defeated. strongly negative either way, having demoralised troops being pressed back either way is negative for the Russians. they havent been "released" simply allowed to rout in a particular direction. this will raise questions among them why Ukrainians are behaving so much better than thier leaders, further demoralising and destablising the Russian forces.

i understood the better Russian units are in the south, where they were expected to push through to take Odessa. the north is supposed to be a holding army, a large amount of DPR milita. and in the south there is a steady psuhing back of the Russian forces, not getting same attention but certainly positive.

 

[Triggaaar]

maybe they are good soliders poorly led or maybe they are poor soldiers, they have just been defeated. strongly negative either way, having demoralised troops being pressed back either way is negative for the Russians. they havent been "released" simply allowed to rout in a particular direction. this will raise questions among them why Ukrainians are behaving so much better than thier leaders, further demoralising and destablising the Russian forces.

i understood the better Russian units are in the south, where they were expected to push through to take Odessa. the north is supposed to be a holding army, a large amount of DPR milita. and in the south there is a steady psuhing back of the Russian forces, not getting same attention but certainly positive.

Let's agree to disagree

 

[Eric the meek]

Putin's Road to War: Julia Ioffe (interview) | FRONTLINE

This is an excellent interview with Julia Ioffe, who was born in Russia, and runs her own news agency. It dates from March, but it still holds good.
It's a bit long, but that means she is given the time and space to fully articulate her opinions. She knows what she's talking about.

If you don't manage it all, make sure you watch the first ten minutes - about that now legendary security council meeting. She has a number of observations about it, beyond the obvious ones.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kSNo2FPQDQw

The end is chilling.

 

[Igzilla]

Hearing a lot of chatter of an ongoing collapse of the Russian defensive line in north-eastern Kherson oblast...

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Hearing a lot of chatter of an ongoing collapse of the Russian defensive line in north-eastern Kherson oblast...

Do give us updates if you have them. This would be wonderful news

 

[Igzilla]

Do give us updates if you have them. This would be wonderful news

Nothing official as yet. The DeepStateMap shows the Ukrainian advance up to Shevchenkivka, but there are a number of twitter accounts saying Dudchany liberated, eg [tweet]1576629439957323776[/tweet]

Normally I'd wait for the video's of Ukrainian flags raised over roadsigns etc, but these rumors all started from the Russian milblogger side. Word too of advances towards Svatove, as well as Kreminna under fierce assault in Luhansk oblast.

[tweet]1576622683030048768[/tweet]

 

[Weststander]

Another interesting Telegraph article, well worth a read.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/02/why-putin-would-fool-go-nuclear-ukraine/

Info on tactical nukes. Also on the military consequences for Russia should they use them. From thousands of miles away NATO could completely take control of all Ukrainian (including Crimea) air space and systematically destroy all Russian air defence measures, every Russian plane, non-handheld SAM launcher, tank, armoured vehicle, command, ammunition dump. Using cruise and other weapons, as they did in Libya and Iraq. The new bridges from Crimea to Russia would last hours, their only escape route.

 

[Fred Oliver - Legend]

Another interesting Telegraph article, well worth a read.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/02/why-putin-would-fool-go-nuclear-ukraine/

Info on tactical nukes. Also on the military consequences for Russia should they use them. From thousands of miles away NATO could completely take control of all Ukrainian (including Crimea) air space and systematically destroy all Russian air defence measures, every Russian plane, non-handheld SAM launcher, tank, armoured vehicle, command, ammunition dump. Using cruise and other weapons, as they did in Libya and Iraq. The new bridges from Crimea to Russia would last hours, their only escape route.

Could you copy and paste it please, it’s hidden behind a pay wall.

 

[Weststander]

Could you copy and paste it please, it’s hidden behind a pay wall.

Hi, I was asked to stop doing that, understandably as it’s copyright.

Someone may come along in a while and tell you how to still find it.

 

[jakarta]

Hi, I was asked to stop doing that, understandably as it’s copyright.

Someone may come along in a while and tell you how to still find it.

Well could you give a further precis? Hopefully all bad news for Vlad?

 

[Weststander]

Well could you give a further precis? Hopefully all bad news for Vlad?

Got to get on with some work today

If no one posts a link, I’ll have a bash at that this evening.

 

[jakarta]

Got to get on with some work today

If no one posts a link, I’ll have a bash at that this evening.

Me too mate, to Slough this morning then a fun drive to Ipswich PM for work tomorrow, retirement looking ever more appealing!

 

[Mellotron]

Me too mate, to Slough this morning then a fun drive to Ipswich PM for work tomorrow, retirement looking ever more appealing!

I'm 36 and already counting down the days...not good.

 

[Eric the meek]

I'm 36 and already counting down the days...not good.

I once worked on a contract at Scottish Widows in Edinburgh. There was a bloke there, who had an app on his desktop, that displays the years, months, days, hours and minutes until retirement.

He had more than 5 years to go. Those grey Scottish skies sure take their toll.

 

[The Fifth Column]

Reply to an earlier post by Beorthelm

Not sure what sources you are using but having had upwards of 70,000+ casualties Russian military doctrine doesn't really come into it as its all but collapsed now. The mobilisation campaign is a chaotic, disastrous mess hampered further by poor logistics and focusing on recruiting from far flung Russian states in the East, a thinly veiled covert form of ethnic cleansing by Putin. Their army is now woefully short of adequately trained manpower and effective weapons, there is zero morale and rampant corruption throughout their entire supply chain. Their is no maybe about it, huge numbers of conscripts are on the front line and dying in their thousands. Regardless of what soldiers Russia has on the frontline they are getting pummelled relentlessly by the Ukrainians who continue to make gains on the battlefield. In common with Hitler, Putin now has little faith in his battlefield commanders and is regularly sacking and replacing them, in addition he is dictating major front line decisions like the true dictator he is and that will only end badly for him. Once enough of his Generals have had enough of fighting his war and sending thousands of boys to their deaths then he will have real problems.

 

[essbee1]

Reply to an earlier post by Beorthelm

Not sure what sources you are using but having had upwards of 70,000+ casualties Russian military doctrine doesn't really come into it as its all but collapsed now. The mobilisation campaign is a chaotic, disastrous mess hampered further by poor logistics and focusing on recruiting from far flung Russian states in the East, a thinly veiled covert form of ethnic cleansing by Putin. Their army is now woefully short of adequately trained manpower and effective weapons, there is zero morale and rampant corruption throughout their entire supply chain. Their is no maybe about it, huge numbers of conscripts are on the front line and dying in their thousands. Regardless of what soldiers Russia has on the frontline they are getting pummelled relentlessly by the Ukrainians who continue to make gains on the battlefield. In common with Hitler, Putin now has little faith in his battlefield commanders and is regularly sacking and replacing them, in addition he is dictating major front line decisions like the true dictator he is and that will only end badly for him. Once enough of his Generals have had enough of fighting his war and sending thousands of boys to their deaths then he will have real problems.

You'd think at least one of those f***wit, high-ranking generals would have the moral backbone to think. "That's it. I'm going to kill the
*******".

 

[Paulie Gualtieri]

I once worked on a contract at Scottish Widows in Edinburgh. There was a bloke there, who had an app on his desktop, that displays the years, months, days, hours and minutes until retirement.

He had more than 5 years to go. Those grey Scottish skies sure take their toll.

Just put mine into my general countdown app.

Remortgage in 300 days or so

Retire +8,500 days

Thrilling

 

[Shropshire Seagull]

I once worked on a contract at Scottish Widows in Edinburgh. There was a bloke there, who had an app on his desktop, that displays the years, months, days, hours and minutes until retirement.

He had more than 5 years to go. Those grey Scottish skies sure take their toll.

Not just a Northern thing - while working for CAA @ Gatwick there was a civil servant who had an "open on start-up" Excel workbook that calculated the time remaining for his retirement in years / days / hours.
From memory, he had a couple of years to go ...

Maybe them Southern mortgages sure take their toll?

 

[Mellotron]

You'd think at least one of those f***wit, high-ranking generals would have the moral backbone to think. "That's it. I'm going to kill the
*******".

I'm sure many of them have thought it. It's the doing it that's a lot, lot trickier.

 

[A1X]

[tweet]1576940934423379969[/tweet]