[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Billy the Fish]

Our "support" begins and ends with talking loudly about arming them. It certainly isn't humanitarian support. Gotta keep those Brexity rules in place eh.

Pretty important in this situation, don't you think? Top marks also go to US, Poland, Canada and Sweden.

I'd like us to be better on the humanitarian side, but ultimately those refugees have a much better chance of returning to a free country because of the counties I've mentioned, and because of supplying arms and talking loudly about it.

 

[A1X]

[tweet]1508534968133337094[/tweet]

 

[portslade seagull]

But surely anyone attending such talks (ie, ones where Russia are involved) would take all their own food and drink etc?

Would need someone to open any doors and handle anything else required as well. Best do it over Zoom much safer

 

[Triggaaar]

Would need someone to open any doors and handle anything else required as well.

Presumably Ukraine can get staff to help with things like transport, food, opening doors (they can wear gloves) etc.

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

Our "support" begins and ends with talking loudly about arming them.

By all means slag the UK Govt off for a multitude of mistakes over the past few years - and there are plenty - but denying that the UK is arming the Ukrainians makes you look pretty silly.

Zelensky in his most recent interview with The Economist makes that very clear.

 

[Simster]

By all means slag the UK Govt off for a multitude of mistakes over the past few years - and there are plenty - but denying that the UK is arming the Ukrainians makes you look pretty silly.

Zelensky in his most recent interview with The Economist makes that very clear.

Fair enough. I wasn't really aware of the level of military support we were providing when I went on my rant.

 

[Eric the meek]

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tqit9y/620_russian_spies_unmasked_in_embarrassing_blow/

Ukraine intelligence have published the names, addresses and even car number plates of 620 Russian spies that were operating in Ukraine.

Apparently, when Russian troops knocked out the 3G masts, they disabled the encrypted comms the spies were using. Bit of an own goal there.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tqit9y/620_russian_spies_unmasked_in_embarrassing_blow/

Ukraine intelligence have published the names, addresses and even car number plates of 620 Russian spies that were operating in Ukraine.

Apparently, when Russian troops knocked out the 3G masts, they disabled the encrypted comms the spies were using. Bit of an own goal there.

More "Blunderkrieg" from the so-called "military superpower".

 

[Baldseagull]

By all means slag the UK Govt off for a multitude of mistakes over the past few years - and there are plenty - but denying that the UK is arming the Ukrainians makes you look pretty silly.

Zelensky in his most recent interview with The Economist makes that very clear.

I don't want to make a thing of it, but in the interview where Zelensky praises Boris, he also says something like "I can't say if he wants to prolong the war". I think some of the European leaders suspect an ongoing war in Ukraine suits Johnson politically, keeps the press off his arse for parties and stuff, and are therefore suspicious of his motives. You have to admit, it would fit with his previous behaviour which is mostly self serving, he has little trust left and although I think he is right to aid Ukraine in the ways that he has, I would not be surprised if he has entirely selfish motives for doing it.

 

[Eric the meek]

I don't want to make a thing of it, but in the interview where Zelensky praises Boris, he also says something like "I can't say if he wants to prolong the war". I think some of the European leaders suspect an ongoing war in Ukraine suits Johnson politically, keeps the press off his arse for parties and stuff, and are therefore suspicious of his motives. You have to admit, it would fit with his previous behaviour which is mostly self serving, he has little trust left and although I think he is right to aid Ukraine in the ways that he has, I would not be surprised if he has entirely selfish motives for doing it.

That's an interesting theory.

I've been thinking the same thing for a while, but from a different angle and a different reason.

It would suit the west (i.e. the Pentagon) more if the war drags on for a long time, draining Russia of money, morale and weapons. The longer it goes on, the more time the sanctions have got to dismember the Russian war machine, the more internal unrest and the greater the chance of not only regime change by the Russian people, but perhaps the break up of Russia itself.

Your theory of prolonging the war is right, but for the wrong reasons.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

I don't want to make a thing of it, but in the interview where Zelensky praises Boris, he also says something like "I can't say if he wants to prolong the war". I think some of the European leaders suspect an ongoing war in Ukraine suits Johnson politically, keeps the press off his arse for parties and stuff, and are therefore suspicious of his motives. You have to admit, it would fit with his previous behaviour which is mostly self serving, he has little trust left and although I think he is right to aid Ukraine in the ways that he has, I would not be surprised if he has entirely selfish motives for doing it.

Sorry, but that’s just daft. I know that evidence less accusation is all the rage these days but that does take it to a new level.

 

[vegster]

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tqit9y/620_russian_spies_unmasked_in_embarrassing_blow/

Ukraine intelligence have published the names, addresses and even car number plates of 620 Russian spies that were operating in Ukraine.

Apparently, when Russian troops knocked out the 3G masts, they disabled the encrypted comms the spies were using. Bit of an own goal there.

There is a definite pattern forming here. We always thought that the Russians were masters of spying, deception and asymmetric warfare and blunt force heavy warfare with tanks and armoured units. it seems the reality is that they have never come across a credible enemy yet until they made the mistake of invading Ukraine. It's all very well when quashing poorly organised and supplied uprisings in satellite nations but not so good in the real world. There seems a genuine complacency among the Russian hierarchy that their methods and men were superior but they seem to have lost almost every little harmonic of the war in the last month.

Their logistics have been crap, calibre of their troops and equipment has been poor, morale poor and tactics awful compared to Ukraine . They have lost the propaganda war by trying to stick with " Special Military Operation when the World clearly sees it as a war. The the two Presidents have polarised in to one who is a leader and rallying point for the nation and one who seems completely out of touch with reality and who sounds increasingly more like the Nutter in the Pub who everyone avoids.

Ukraine is a very West leaning tech savvy nation and this has aided them in the clever use of propaganda, recovery and re-use of Russian tanks and vehicles and the use of fast moving small independent units equipped with drones for reconnaissance and targeting purposes.. Lots of the locals are using expertise in many fields to pull together and chip away at the Russians old aurora of invincibility. Ukraine has something worth fighting for unlike Russia.

As I said some time ago, by their failure to achieve a quick victory they have effectively lost the war. There is no way they can retain any kudos from a massive financial and military defeat, this Russian army was the one that was supposedly re-equipped and modernised but has been shown up mostly as being ineffective. their aura has gone and there is now no easy way to re-arm with the sanctions biting. The tales of Russian casualties and deaths is beginning to reach Russia now and this will weaken Putin's hold on power further.

I think we are going to get bogged down in a war of attrition that neither side can actually win but neither side can actually lose. Russia have to be seen to " win " something but they can never hold the land they captured as the Ukrainian people won't let them, Ukraine can not lose all the time they are united and Zelensky is head of state.

 

[Billy the Fish]

Fair enough. I wasn't really aware of the level of military support we were providing when I went on my rant.

Google "operation orbital".

I wasn't aware of it until the war started, there's some interesting articlesexplaining how the UK and some of the other countries I mentioned have trained and supplied the Ukrainian army.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

That's an interesting theory.

I've been thinking the same thing for a while, but from a different angle and a different reason.

It would suit the west (i.e. the Pentagon) more if the war drags on for a long time, draining Russia of money, morale and weapons. The longer it goes on, the more time the sanctions have got to dismember the Russian war machine, the more internal unrest and the greater the chance of not only regime change by the Russian people, but perhaps the break up of Russia itself.

Your theory of prolonging the war is right, but for the wrong reasons.

Yes - there is motive.

Add in a possible desire to see Putin out before his stooge Trump might get re-elected and it is possible to see a school of thought. I mean if Trump was re-elected but Putin was gone then Trump just becomes a run of the mill disgrace rather than a threat to NATO security etc.

But that is just bouncing theories around - no real evidence at all.

 

[Eric the meek]

There is a definite pattern forming here. We always thought that the Russians were masters of spying, deception and asymmetric warfare and blunt force heavy warfare with tanks and armoured units. it seems the reality is that they have never come across a credible enemy yet until they made the mistake of invading Ukraine. It's all very well when quashing poorly organised and supplied uprisings in satellite nations but not so good in the real world. There seems a genuine complacency among the Russian hierarchy that their methods and men were superior but they seem to have lost almost every little harmonic of the war in the last month.

Their logistics have been crap, calibre of their troops and equipment has been poor, morale poor and tactics awful compared to Ukraine . They have lost the propaganda war by trying to stick with " Special Military Operation when the World clearly sees it as a war. The the two Presidents have polarised in to one who is a leader and rallying point for the nation and one who seems completely out of touch with reality and who sounds increasingly more like the Nutter in the Pub who everyone avoids.

Ukraine is a very West leaning tech savvy nation and this has aided them in the clever use of propaganda, recovery and re-use of Russian tanks and vehicles and the use of fast moving small independent units equipped with drones for reconnaissance and targeting purposes.. Lots of the locals are using expertise in many fields to pull together and chip away at the Russians old aurora of invincibility. Ukraine has something worth fighting for unlike Russia.

As I said some time ago, by their failure to achieve a quick victory they have effectively lost the war. There is no way they can retain any kudos from a massive financial and military defeat, this Russian army was the one that was supposedly re-equipped and modernised but has been shown up mostly as being ineffective. their aura has gone and there is now no easy way to re-arm with the sanctions biting. The tales of Russian casualties and deaths is beginning to reach Russia now and this will weaken Putin's hold on power further.

I think we are going to get bogged down in a war of attrition that neither side can actually win but neither side can actually lose. Russia have to be seen to " win " something but they can never hold the land they captured as the Ukrainian people won't let them, Ukraine can not lose all the time they are united and Zelensky is head of state.

Good post. I would broadly agree with you.

But the war is not over.

Before the war descends into one of attrition that neither side can win, Russia are increasing their efforts right now.

There is renewed fighting around Kyiv:

'Report: Russia still intends to capture Kyiv'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60890199 at 10:20

And they are reinforcing in Eastern Ukraine:

'UK's MoD says Russia's Wagner group sent to Ukraine'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60890199/page/2 at 22:15 28 Mar

 

[Eric the meek]

Yes - there is motive.

Add in a possible desire to see Putin out before his stooge Trump might get re-elected and it is possible to see a school of thought. I mean if Trump was re-elected but Putin was gone then Trump just becomes a run of the mill disgrace rather than a threat to NATO security etc.

But that is just bouncing theories around - no real evidence at all.

There's no real evidence, except that Zelensky said, unprompted I believe, something like 'I can't say whether Johnson wants to prolong the war'. He didn't say that for nothing. He said it for a reason. Something prompted him to say it. The reasonable conclusion is that he was communicating his observation that the UK at least, want to prolong the war.

Beyond that, everything else is speculation, I agree.

 

[beorhthelm]

Yes - there is motive.

Add in a possible desire to see Putin out before his stooge Trump might get re-elected and it is possible to see a school of thought. I mean if Trump was re-elected but Putin was gone then Trump just becomes a run of the mill disgrace rather than a threat to NATO security etc.

But that is just bouncing theories around - no real evidence at all.

off-topic, but Trump only gets another chance at re-election if the Republican party (and Democrats to some extent) are so poor in talent they cant offer an alternative. Russia doesnt have that much influence, and any they have is waning, to make Trump a candidate if GOP dont want him as candidate.

 

[Triggaaar]

I don't want to make a thing of it, but in the interview where Zelensky praises Boris, he also says something like "I can't say if he wants to prolong the war". I think some of the European leaders suspect an ongoing war in Ukraine suits Johnson politically, keeps the press off his arse for parties and stuff, and are therefore suspicious of his motives. You have to admit, it would fit with his previous behaviour which is mostly self serving

It disagree about it fitting with his previous behaviour. Yes he is a self-serving shit, but to try and prolong a war where thousands of innocent civilians are dying is on a very different level. That's not to say he's not doing it, I have no idea, but it's certainly not comparable.

If it were true (we can only hope not), how exactly would one go about that? Supply some weapons, but not too many; Impose some sanctions, but not too many. AFAIK there's been nothing to suggest we're doing anything weird like that. The bit we appear to have been worst at is making it easy for refugees to come over, and that's not going to prolong the war.

 

[Triggaaar]

Russia have to be seen to " win " something but they can never hold the land they captured as the Ukrainian people won't let them

This is the bit that concerns me. If they remove/kill everyone in Mariupol (for example), then there'd be no Ukrainian left there to stop Russia holding it.

I hope that all sanctions continue until all land is handed back, and areas aren't replaced with Russians in order to then vote to leave Ukraine.

 

[heathgate]

It's the only way the war can end, Russia can't take Ukraine without using Nukes, Ukraine cant defeat Russia without Nato getting involved, Russia won't allow Nato to be on it's border and Nato doesn't want Russia on it's border. The Berlin Wall will be rebuilt but further east this time and then there will be 2 no fly zones, 1 by Nato and 1 by Russia and we have Cold War part 2.

Hopefully, not forgetting that NATO and Russia already share borders in the Baltics,.... no big escalations in that region. Plus of course Turkey which virtually borders Russia through the Black Sea and Georgia.... again, no issues there.... barring the Crimea 'takeover' and a few Russia inspired territorial skirmishes.