[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Baker lite]

Blimey, didn't know the whole Johnson family were in Putin's pocket. Nothing suprises me anymore

If I may raise a point of order? A couple of weeks ago the moderating team, quite rightly in my opinion, stated that this was a far to important thread to start political and personal sniping. Could we kindly reign it in? Many thanks.

 

[British Bulldog]

Where do you get the idea that NATO doesn't want Russia on it's border when Estonia and Latvia are both members but border Russia?

That is true I forgot about that area.

 

[Eric the meek]

I've only just got round to reading this Twitter thread below from [MENTION=25402]Blue Valkyrie[/MENTION].

It provides a glimpse into a possible future for Russia. It forecasts that a national uprising won't happen, but that nevertheless, Russia will break up.
This is based on the regions going their own way, because of a power vacuum (as well as goods, services and trade) created by the unprecedented sanctions.

It's quite a simple argument - what binds the vast country together are its railways and airlines, both of which will soon be grinding to a halt as they are both heavily reliant on spare parts for trains and planes, all of which are sanctioned.

I urge you to take the time to read this thread. It is excellent.

The latest thread from my favourite Twitter author :

[Tweet]1507819508609679364[/Tweet]

 

[British Bulldog]

I disagree. I'm not saying that you're suggestion cannot happen, but I disagree that it's the only way the war can end. Ukraine can't defeat Russia, but they don't have to. If the west continue sanctions against Russia, eventually they may decide that leaving Ukraine is what's best for Russia. And I disagree about NATO and Russia not allowing each other on their border - they already do!

Russia will not leave Ukraine with nothing other than big red faces, they will want something as a victory. There's been talk for a few days of referendums in Luhansk and Donetsk to be Russian, No doubt the result will be 100% Russian. Sanctions may work eventually but I guess that depends how many rich westerners are in bed with rich Russians as to how far sanctions go
?

 

[Triggaaar]

It's quite a simple argument - what binds the vast country together are its railways and airlines, both of which will soon be grinding to a halt as they are both heavily reliant on spare parts for trains and planes, all of which are sanctioned.

I urge you to take the time to read this thread. It is excellent.

Surely a country the size of Russia can adapt to make their own train spare parts, and if needed, have them made in China?

 

[essbee1]

Surely a country the size of Russia can adapt to make their own train spare parts, and if needed, have them made in China?

I guess that may take months too long to sort out..

 

[Triggaaar]

Russia will not leave Ukraine with nothing other than big red faces, they will want something as a victory.

They won't want to, but that's not the same as saying they won't. And where needed, Putin can simply lie to Russians and pretend their objectives were met. We're only one month in and they've already started doing it by changing their stated goals to be just the east of Ukraine.

There's been talk for a few days of referendums in Luhansk and Donetsk to be Russian, No doubt the result will be 100% Russian.

I don't know what the people in Donbas want - is it already clear that they'd mostly like to be part of Russia? Or are you suggesting something else?

Sanctions may work eventually but I guess that depends how many rich westerners are in bed with rich Russians as to how far sanctions go
?

We can only hope right. At least the sanctions so far haven't been too weak.

 

[Eric the meek]

Surely a country the size of Russia can adapt to make their own train spare parts, and if needed, have them made in China?

I don't know, but I suspect not. At least not in the short term.

The size of Russia is a liability, not an asset. That's the whole point of the twitter thread.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Russia will not leave Ukraine with nothing other than big red faces, they will want something as a victory. There's been talk for a few days of referendums in Luhansk and Donetsk to be Russian, No doubt the result will be 100% Russian. Sanctions may work eventually but I guess that depends how many rich westerners are in bed with rich Russians as to how far sanctions go
?

There is now talk of a long term lease of Donbas and Crimea to Russia ( similar to the China-UK Hong Kong lease ) which would save everyone's face and kick the can into the next century.

Interesting, I can't comment on if it would be acceptable.

 

[giveusfalmerplease]

Russia will not leave Ukraine with nothing other than big red faces, they will want something as a victory. There's been talk for a few days of referendums in Luhansk and Donetsk to be Russian, No doubt the result will be 100% Russian. Sanctions may work eventually but I guess that depends how many rich westerners are in bed with rich Russians as to how far sanctions go
?

You would think if the Donesk fighters are so keen to be part of Russia, why don't they just move there? No, because they are another bunch of power hungry, egotistic SOBs . How about this as an alternative, they want part of Ukraine, let them all go live in Chernobyl!

 

[British Bulldog]

There is now talk of a long term lease of Donbas and Crimea to Russia ( similar to the China-UK Hong Kong lease ) which would save everyone's face and kick the can into the next century.

Interesting, I can't comment on if it would be acceptable.

There will have to be a compromise somewhere, there should'nt have to be but it's the only way I can see an end to it?

 

[Triggaaar]

I guess that may take months too long to sort out..

Yeah I'm sure it will take ages, but the talk is of not being able to service trains and planes - are they really needing new parts that regularly (assume they had some stock of spare parts to start with)?

 

[essbee1]

Russia plans to make entry to the country difficult for "unfriendly" countries.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60890199

Well, that's my summer holiday to Siberia bollock*ed then.

 

[peterward]

You may be surprised, but you possibly shouldnt be. breaking news from bellingcat and the WSJ, that for the early peace talks held on the border on March 3, some on the Ukrainian delegation were poisoned with whats being alleged as a chemical weapon..... and Roman Abramovich who was asked to mediate on the Ukrainian side, as part Jewish, was also poisoned.

[tweet]1508463513013997580[/tweet]

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

There is now talk of a long term lease of Donbas and Crimea to Russia ( similar to the China-UK Hong Kong lease ) which would save everyone's face and kick the can into the next century.

Interesting, I can't comment on if it would be acceptable.

It may be acceptable to the Ukrainians. The rest of the world are not a part of the negotiations though and even if agreed we should further increase sanctions to achieve regime change in the Kremlin. Let Russia have those regions if Ukraine is happy with that but we have unfinished business with Putin.

 

[peterward]

It may be acceptable to the Ukrainians. The rest of the world are not a part of the negotiations though and even if agreed we should further increase sanctions to achieve regime change in the Kremlin. Let Russia have those regions if Ukraine is happy with that but we have unfinished business with Putin.

Ukraine aren't happy with that. They're saying their territorial integrity is non negotiable, but they are willing to discuss the pre Feb 24 Donbass area with some kind of autonomy. To give anything since the invasion of 24 Feb would be seen to reward then aggressor and I don't think the Ukrainian public would buy it, plus if you held a referendum in those areas and asked then citizens, they'd want to be in Ukraine for sure. Tough choices.

 

[Simster]

Both Putin and The Ukrainian president saying that the UK is the number one contributor to Ukrainian resistance.
How can this be right [emoji2371]

The same reason why the Saudis are never threatened by our government. It's because we are not dependent on Russian energy sources. 3% of our fuel comes from Russia and we don't take Russian gas.

Our "support" begins and ends with talking loudly about arming them. It certainly isn't humanitarian support. Gotta keep those Brexity rules in place eh.

 

[vegster]

Ukraine aren't happy with that. They're saying their territorial integrity is non negotiable, but they are willing to discuss the pre Feb 24 Donbass area with some kind of autonomy. To give anything since the invasion of 24 Feb would be seen to reward then aggressor and I don't think the Ukrainian public would buy it, plus if you held a referendum in those areas and asked then citizens, they'd want to be in Ukraine for sure. Tough choices.

This ..... Putin can't be seen to get away with nibbling chunks out of neighbouring countries on a regular basis.

 

[Triggaaar]

Our "support" begins and ends with talking loudly about arming them.

So you don't think the weapons and training we've provided Ukraine with count as support?

 

[peterward]

The same reason why the Saudis are never threatened by our government. It's because we are not dependent on Russian energy sources. 3% of our fuel comes from Russia and we don't take Russian gas.

Our "support" begins and ends with talking loudly about arming them. It certainly isn't humanitarian support. Gotta keep those Brexity rules in place eh.

We sent loads of NLAW anti tank weapons and right now they're receiving UK built star streak anti aircraft missiles.

We've been one of the best in Europe in arming and training them.