[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[essbee1]

Long thread, but stick with it, worth a read

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Thanks Dazzer,

It seems that this tactical blunder is as big as Hitler's decision to invade Russia in WW2 when Russia knew that they'd
have to beat the winter/mud/food/supply chain issues eventually etc

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Long thread, but stick with it, worth a read

[tweet]1502588098777079808[/tweet]

It is a brilliant read! I sincerely hope it is on the money. Some of it almost sounds like humour, and in other circumstances would be. What a complete disaster for the Russians this is. It makes me hope there is some truth that the Russians are seeking a way to save face and a way out of this.

 

[dazzer6666]

It is a brilliant read! I sincerely hope it is on the money. Some of it almost sounds like humour, and in other circumstances would be. What a complete disaster for the Russians this is. It makes me hope there is some truth that the Russians are seeking a way to save face and a way out of this.

That’s how I read it. Kind of hopeful……..

 

[Sirnormangall]

Arrested for holding a blank piece of card eh?

What should we expect next?

Standing still doing nothing in particular in a public place?
Loitering with intent to greet others with a knowing wink?
Standing too close to others you have winked at, thereby forming a protest group?

If it wasn’t so sad and desperate it would almost be comical. Like Constable Savage: making arrests for treading on the cracks in the pavement; being in possession of an offensive wife…….

 

[Theatre of Trees]

Long thread, but stick with it, worth a read

[tweet]1502588098777079808[/tweet]

Ties in with what I've been reading elsewhere, namely the Russian Army's logistics are not working and are reaching the limit of their supply reach. Put simply the Russians are invading down highways and need about 200 trucks a day to travel x amount of miles (Can't remember the exact length) to supply a division properly. Once you travel beyond that limit the supply then gets longer - so if you double the limit, say x[SUP]2[/SUP], you still have the same 200 trucks being used. The logical way to do this is advance, move your supply bases forward, then advance again - the Russians are struggling to do this. On top of this the Ukrainians have been targeting the convoys knocking out as many trucks as they can - meaning there are less trucks travelling longer distances.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Ties in with what I've been reading elsewhere, namely the Russian Army's logistics are not working and are reaching the limit of their supply reach. Put simply the Russians are invading down highways and need about 200 trucks a day to travel x amount of miles (Can't remember the exact length) to supply a division properly. Once you travel beyond that limit the supply then gets longer - so if you double the limit, say x[SUP]2[/SUP], you still have the same 200 trucks being used. The logical way to do this is advance, move your supply bases forward, then advance again - the Russians are struggling to do this. On top of this the Ukrainians have been targeting the convoys knocking out as many trucks as they can - meaning there are less trucks travelling longer distances.

Yes. They need to keep hitting the trucks, buggering up the roads and runways, knocking out the bridges. This is the way to keep Russia at bay from Kiev. The South and East are harder

 

[Eric the meek]

Yes. They need to keep hitting the trucks, buggering up the roads and runways, knocking out the bridges. This is the way to keep Russia at bay from Kiev. The South and East are harder

It sounds as if the Russians are doing a good job of losing their own war, all by themselves.

They've certainly already lost the peace, and destroyed their economy, all in the space of two and a half weeks.

Not an easy thing to do, that.

 

[kevo]

Jesus - this is all we need. The Kremlin will use this as 'evidence' to use chemical attacks.

Romney is right to call her out for treason.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ssia-ukraine-war-romney-gabbard-b2034983.html

 

[peterward]

It has just hit me what Putin's chilling plan would have been.

Ukraine invaded. And then into the Baltics.

Trump gives no support whatsoever, says that the USA won't defend the Baltics and as a result USA leaves NATO. Europe at Putin's ( lack of ) mercy.

Yep like you said, into Suwalki gap, even the Russian orthodox priests fantasise about it

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[Blue Valkyrie]

Talk now of a Kherson Peoples Republic to go alongside the existing 2 republics.

Putin would then just need his Zaporizhzhia Peoples Republic to complete his land bridge to Crimea. Half of his desired Novorossiya dream.

The land bridge would be his minimum "win" in my opinion. Conquering the rest of Novororossiya including Odessa may be beyond him now ( with luck ) and with the best case for him of being involved in the next Stalingrad at Kyiv may be the point he gives peace a go.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Yep like you said, into Suwalki gap, even the Russian orthodox priests fantasise about it

[tweet]1503072513055764496[/tweet]

One of the best threads I have read - I already follow Galeev - and decent background opinion.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Kadyrov claims he is in Ukraine.

Claims.

Surely the number one target to be taken out. Top of the list for a NATO missile if we need to retaliate for a Russian missile hitting Poland.

 

[sydney]

I think there's very few on NSC who appreciate how lucky we are to have such an expert on Global politics on the board to correct us

I think the word randomiser and sticky full stop button on your keyboard tends to hide your true expertise

i think the words sarcastic and wanker display your attitudinal shit****ery perfectly.




.............

 

[Mellotron]

I know. It would be suited to the 'Ukraine Invasion Good News Thread'.

Been tempted to start this but worried it wouldn’t have enough posts….thoughts?

 

[Eric the meek]

Been tempted to start this but worried it wouldn’t have enough posts….thoughts?

I thought of it as well, for all our sakes, but especially those who have relatives and friends in Ukraine.

But then I thought, is it the right thing to do, to post only the good news? In doing so, wouldn't we be giving a misleading impression of how things are going?

I believe that would be a mistake. It is vital that we know and discuss the truth, rather than just the things we want to hear.

That's what Putin does.

 

[Mellotron]

I thought of it as well, for all our sakes, but especially those who have relatives and friends in Ukraine.

But then I thought, is it the right thing to do, to post only the good news? In doing so, wouldn't we be giving a misleading impression of how things are going?

I believe that would be a mistake. It is vital that we know and discuss the truth, rather than just the things we want to hear.

That's what Putin does.

We had two threads for covid. The one where the good bad and ugly is discussed, and one for positive developments. I think both can coexist.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

We had two threads for covid. The one where the good bad and ugly is discussed, and one for positive developments. I think both can coexist.

I agree, but it would require restraint and careful moderation. It wouldn't be desirable for instance to glorify Russian soldiers dying however 'good' that is for the war effort of the Ukrainians.

 

[Eric the meek]

We had two threads for covid. The one where the good bad and ugly is discussed, and one for positive developments. I think both can coexist.

Yes, indeed.

And tbh, I used the covid good news thread more than I used the other one!
I'm sure I would participate in a Ukraine good news thread if there were one.

I do think this thread about the war has worked quite well as it is, apart from it attracting the odd troll, but we seem to dispatch these quite satisfactorily.

Maybe as the war develops, and the wind turns, then maybe a good news thread will become more appropriate?

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

I thought of it as well, for all our sakes, but especially those who have relatives and friends in Ukraine.

But then I thought, is it the right thing to do, to post only the good news? In doing so, wouldn't we be giving a misleading impression of how things are going?

I believe that would be a mistake. It is vital that we know and discuss the truth, rather than just the things we want to hear.

That's what Putin does.

I agree with you. I think social media generally is giving a misleading view of how (well) the war is going.

We all want to feel better about the situation, but this comes across a little bit as putting you're fingers in your ears, closing your eyes and going "la la la" at the events of the world.

 

[Eric the meek]

Back to this thread, and I've just seen this on the BBC:

'Countries trying to force Russia into default - finance minister' (Timestamp 9:05)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60717902

Let's hope they succeed.