[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Deportivo Seagull]

So, Trump will somehow blame Ukraine if Russia doesn't agree to a ceasefire or breaks it

The more this goes on the worse position the US are in.
1) Europe united and implementing a massive military expansion
2) Ukraine hitting Moscow
3) Russian breakout that wasn’t
4) Turkey flexing its muscles
5) putin quiet as a church mouse
6)china popping up in Ukraine following the Ukraine military
7) Canada and Mexico telling Trump to stuff his tariffs
8) US economy going down the toilet

Mag f***ing nificent

 

[Eric the meek]

So, Trump will somehow blame Ukraine if Russia doesn't agree to a ceasefire or breaks it

Whether Russia agrees to a month long ceasefire or not, may be an indicator of how bad their economy is, how much money they have left etc. In other words, if they accept the ceasefire, then they are near a collapse, or at least want to conserve weapons/troops/reserves to stave off a collapse.

I can't see any other reason why they would accept a temporary ceasefire. Unless they were losing the war, and need a breather, obviously.

 

[raymondo]

Great success for Ukraine in just one action

 

[Triggaaar]

Just read Phillips O' Brien's latest. Here's a link, but you'll need to subscribe to read it, although this is free. Basically, he thinks the primary US/Russia strategy is to get Zelensky to agree to a cease fire followed by an election. This would then give them the chance to destabilise Ukraine. This is also the only thing they care about right now - everything else is about pressuring Zelensky to agree.

The Trump/Putin Plan For Ukraine

Its Not Peace Plan, Its A Plan For A Weak And Divided Ukraine

open.substack.com

So Ukraine should simply say no.

 

[raymondo]

It gets worse. Or maybe better, I'm not sure now.

Yeah it's hard to know what's good, bad, indifferent any more - probably depends on the next move. I'm sure Trumpy has his next ten moves already planned in the 4D chess game., well, against his friendly neighbours anyway.

 

[raymondo]

Either they have what they want in the peace talks OR pressure is being brought on Trump from within the US.

Yeah, it's a surprisingly calm announcement so far .

 

[raymondo]

Either they have what they want in the peace talks OR pressure is being brought on Trump from within the US.

Maybe Ukraine has agreed to this without knowing/ agreeing every detail of ceasefire terms...as it's a way of getting Russia to show it's hand...well,at least to the US

 

[Eric the meek]

Yeah, it's a surprisingly calm announcement so far .

That's because the attack dogs are nowhere near the talks.

 

[Bodian]

Whether Russia agrees to a month long ceasefire or not, may be an indicator of how bad their economy is, how much money they have left etc. In other words, if they accept the ceasefire, then they are near a collapse, or at least want to conserve weapons/troops/reserves to stave off a collapse.

I can't see any other reason why they would accept a temporary ceasefire. Unless they were losing the war, and need a breather, obviously.

Or they want peace. That's what Trump has said they want, so it must be true.

I suspect they will agree to a ceasefire, then a while later when they have built up a few more weapons and moved men around - will manufacture a fake attack in Russia, blame the Ukrainians and go again. Enabling Trump to blame Ukraine as well.

 

[Triggaaar]

In a free market economy, I'd love to know what an illegal boycott is!

Trump is going to make it law that people have to buy Teslas.

Idiots.

 

[Bodian]

When are the next talks between US & Russia? Presumably Russia will know of this move already - so is there some sort of deadline for them to respond?

 

[raymondo]

Or they want peace. That's what Trump has said they want, so it must be true.

I suspect they will agree to a ceasefire, then a while later when they have built up a few more weapons and moved men around - will manufacture a fake attack in Russia, blame the Ukrainians and go again. Enabling Trump to blame Ukraine as well.

Sounds about right sadly 🫤

 

[Eric the meek]

Or they want peace. That's what Trump has said they want, so it must be true.

I suspect they will agree to a ceasefire, then a while later when they have built up a few more weapons and moved men around - will manufacture a fake attack in Russia, blame the Ukrainians and go again. Enabling Trump to blame Ukraine as well.

That would be the received wisdom, but they may be thinking in a different timeframe, and we don't know what deals may or may not be on the table from the US.

Russia will have learned that the kinetic war against a neighbour has been an absolute disaster for Russia. But they will also have learned that they are - brilliantly - successful at a hybrid war against the west.

Based on this experience, what do you think they will do next?

 

[raymondo]

Trumpy live, (and Musk with his human shield)

 

[raymondo]

That would be the received wisdom, but they may be thinking in a different timeframe, and we don't know what deals may or may not be on the table from the US.

Russia will have learned that the kinetic war against a neighbour has been an absolute disaster for Russia. But they will also have learned that they are - brilliantly - successful at a hybrid war against the west.

Based on this experience, what do you think they will do next?

I think they will lie and deceive!

 

[Triggaaar]

I saw this as well Raymondo.

Some of the replies gave warnings. Why are the Chinese doing this, could be a propagandist, they could give away the positions of the Ukrainians etc.

I would imagine they were only taken to areas where the Ukrainians would soon move, meaning any location info is useless. The Russian's already have a pretty decent idea where the Ukrainians are anyway.

I've no idea why they are doing it though.

 

[Eric the meek]

I think they will lie and deceive!

Certainly. But they will do the things they were successful at, and avoid the things they've been shit at.

 

[raymondo]

I would imagine they were only taken to areas where the Ukrainians would soon move, meaning any location info is useless. The Russian's already have a pretty decent idea where the Ukrainians are anyway.

I've no idea why they are doing it though.

Do we have any NSCers resident in China?

 

[Eric the meek]

I would imagine they were only taken to areas where the Ukrainians would soon move, meaning any location info is useless. The Russian's already have a pretty decent idea where the Ukrainians are anyway.

I've no idea why they are doing it though.

No, neither do I. But the fact that they are there, on the Ukrainian side of the front, is interesting. They wouldn't have just turned up on spec. They will have approached the Ukrainians to do it, or possibly the Ukrainians made the first move, inviting them in. A message to the US? To Russia?

 

[Bodian]

That would be the received wisdom, but they may be thinking in a different timeframe, and we don't know what deals may or may not be on the table from the US.

Russia will have learned that the kinetic war against a neighbour has been an absolute disaster for Russia. But they will also have learned that they are - brilliantly - successful at a hybrid war against the west.

Based on this experience, what do you think they will do next?

Yes, interesting. I guess it will partly depend on how much of the land they have captured they are 'allowed' to keep. If they keep quite a bit, they will see it as a 'success' and unless there are strong security guarantees for Ukraine - will just advance again later. My view anyway.