[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Eric the meek]

What are people's expectations of today's meeting between Trump and Zelensky?

I'm not sure what to expect in view of Zelensky's announcement yesterday. But, working on the assumption that he wouldn't have gone to Washington to not sign the minerals deal, I'm inclined to think he is going to sign.

 

[Doug-ees-evil]

Yes it's unpalatable but necessary. Appealing to Trump's vanity for the good of Ukraine. They're just acknowledging Trump's shallowness which is something they know they can exploit, as they know they can't appeal to his sense of decency and humanity.

100% this

 

[sparkie]

I'm at a loss as to why President Krasnov doesn't double cross his boss Putin.

Putin is incredibly weak now. Krasnov could claim any krompromat is fake AI.

 

[Triggaaar]

'Canada is not a real country' - Elon Musk.

Someone shit him already

That was meant to say shoot, but the typo is apt

 

[Triggaaar]

I'm at a loss as to why President Krasnov doesn't double cross his boss Putin.

Putin is incredibly weak now. Krasnov could claim any krompromat is fake AI.

Krasnov can take his rightful place as Emporer of Russia

 

[raymondo]

'Canada is not a real country' - Elon Musk.

For context, this is what Putin says about Ukraine.

Jake Broe digest:
Watch at 25:20 (but the rest is a good watch):

Musk is not a real person.

 

[SeagullinExile]

Musk is not a real person.

He does look like he’s made of plastic tbf.

 

[Eric the meek]

I'm at a loss as to why President Krasnov doesn't double cross his boss Putin.

I could have written something I think you would have wanted to hear, like 'there's a long way to go' or 'Trump can still do that'.

However, I think a more realistic analysis should be based on post 22,220, in which Rubio sets out the geopolitical landscape.
Essentially, the US is keeping Russia as a viable state as a counterbalance to Chinese expansion.

At first, this isn't what you or I would want to hear, but it may mean that when the chips are down, Russia may find that all the chips are on the US side of the table. We will see.

 

[GoldstoneVintage]

More from the excellent Phillips O'Brien

Why is Europe Staying in an Abusive Relationship?

And: First draft of the Atlantic Article

open.substack.com

 

[Seagull58]

Starmer correcting Trump early on in this 20 minute report. Andrew Weinberg calling him out on his lies about tariffs (twice) further on, and Robert Peston embarrassing him about his description of Zelensky as a dictator near the end.

 

[Eric the meek]

More from the excellent Phillips O'Brien

Why is Europe Staying in an Abusive Relationship?

And: First draft of the Atlantic Article

open.substack.com

I'm less impressed with that article than I was the first one that you posted from Phillips O'Brien.

I'll try to explain. I'm not a fan of that kind of analogy, or the narrative supporting it, because the analogy itself, in this case split into 4 bullet points, forces the author - and the reader - down a narrow path and into a rather cramped thinking space. The author has obviously chosen only the data that supports the theory. Any data that doesn't fit the analogy goes in the bin and doesn't make it into the final article.

In short, it isn't a scientific approach. It chooses the data to fit the theory, while a more objective approach would be to consider all the data first and then come up with a theory.

That said, there are some good points, as you would expect.

 

[Commander]

Of course you are correct, if only we had tried this approach with Herr Hitler ?

Yeah, because of course that is exactly the same. A brutal Dictator invading neighbouring countries in charge of a nation that we had fought a world war with less than 20 years earlier is exactly the same as a democratically elected President of our biggest ally that we have stood with for 80 years.

America is and has always (in living memory anyway) been our biggest and most important ally. Their Leaders run on 4 year terms. The idea that we should completely cut off and ignore them because they currently have somebody in charge who we don't like is childish and ridiculous. The world doesn't work like that, thank goodness. Otherwise every time we elect Right and they elect Left and vice versa, the whole thing would fall apart.

We don't have to like Trump, but we do have to work with him.

 

[SouthSaxon]

More from the excellent Phillips O'Brien

Why is Europe Staying in an Abusive Relationship?

And: First draft of the Atlantic Article

open.substack.com

I think*, on this occasion, he is misreading what’s currently playing out.

When someone in an abusive relationship wakes up to the fact, they’ll quickly realise that the abuse will escalate if they suddenly try to fight back or escape. They could end up trapped to an even greater degree. First, they need a plan that allows them to exit unharmed, for good. Until then, they maintain the pretence by displaying subservient behaviours.

I don’t dispute that Europe needs to go further, faster on defence and should have done so long before now. That there’s an emergency defence summit in London this weekend, not in four months (as it often feels is their tempo in a crisis), suggests that complacency might be falling away.

That doesn’t mean it’s a great idea to immediately burn bridges with Trump and invite his petty vengeance.

For one thing, he could start lifting sanctions and relieve the economic siege on Putin’s government. This would surely cause Europe huge problems down the road?

For another, there’s no secret geopolitical abuse shelter that Europe can run to.

I’m inclined to see this as a clear-eyed attempt to minimise the damage and buy time for a coordinated defence strategy to be drawn up. As urgent as things are, that still needs some time due to the number of parties involved; the failure not to do this before is a major one.

If that doesn’t materialise, or there’s a token effort followed by reversion to the norm, I’ll have to reconsider my view. If Europe’s leaders still can’t see that Trump can’t be trusted, they deserve all the criticism that will come their way.

* I’m aware this might be due to wishful thinking on my part. But I do have some painful lived experience where abusive dynamics are concerned.

 

[GoldstoneVintage]

I'm less impressed with that article than I was the first one that you posted from Phillips O'Brien.

I'll try to explain. I'm not a fan of that kind of analogy, or the narrative supporting it, because the analogy itself, in this case split into 4 bullet points, forces the author - and the reader - down a narrow path and into a rather cramped thinking space. The author has obviously chosen only the data that supports the theory. Any data that doesn't fit the analogy goes in the bin and doesn't make it into the final article.

In short, it isn't a scientific approach. It chooses the data to fit the theory, while a more objective approach would be to consider all the data first and then come up with a theory.

That said, there are some good points, as you would expect.

Thank you. I think you're right. As someone who does not naturally think scientifically, I would not have reached the same conclusion on my own, but I find your analysis persuasive. I suppose where I agree with the author in a general way as that Europeans need to toughen up and become more independent of the US as recent events have taught us that we may not always be able to rely on them in future.

 

[Eric the meek]

Thank you. I think you're right. As someone who does not naturally think scientifically, I would not have reached the same conclusion on my own, but I find your analysis persuasive. I suppose where I agree with the author in a general way as that Europeans need to toughen up and become more independent of the US as recent events have taught us that we may not always be able to rely on them in future.

I completely agree with the general thrust and your last sentence, as do many others on here.

 

[SouthSaxon]

Macron came back from Washington and immediately invited Merz to Paris. They agreed a “new chapter in relations” according to this report.

Now he’s in Portugal saying this:

I see a lot of people in our Europe saying 'we're going to have to be nice to the Americans, it's going to pass, we have to bend our spines'
The answer is not in submission. I am not for happy vassalization.

I don’t know how this plays into French domestic politics, but they’re not the words of a man aiming for an “as you were”.

 

[peterward]

Just dropped. Really interesting and frank interview on state of play, with Kyrylo Budanov Head of the Ukrainian director of intelligence (reponsible for the planning of all the long range attacks/assassinations inside Russia......dubbed English voiced over.

 

[Triggaaar]

Otherwise every time we elect Right and they elect Left and vice versa, the whole thing would fall apart.

Actually if we elect Right, and they elect Left, we'll be fairly aligned.

 

[SouthSaxon]

And two bits of positive, non-Tate related news from Romania today:

• Government survives far-right vote of confidence
• Reuters is quoting the Romanian President as saying that its defence spending will reach 3% in 1-2 years

 

[raymondo]

Getting the message out consistently