[Football] Relegation Odds 21/22 Season

[vagabond]

I think Brighton could go down next year.

Haven't for a minute thought they would go down in the last 4 years but I have a feeling some of the key players might be sold in the summer for profit and I am not sure Recruitment is good enough to replace them if that happens.

Which players are you talking about?

We already have succession planning for Biss and Ben White. You really think we’re waiting to sell Biss before running out with a chequebook to find someone?

Tony and the club are a little more forward thinking than that.

 

[Stat Brother]

I am saying that some of the players that there is talk of selling have been pivotal to the team and it's survival in the league.

I'm definitely guilty of saying:-

'Yeah Moder can replace Biss...'

and the longer the season went on the certain I became I was wrong.
It really isn't going to be that straight forward.

Biss is going to be a mahoooooosive loss to the starting XI.



The correction is obvious - a 2 goal lead, "Heavens to Murgatroyd" a 2 goal lead he says!!

In the unlikely event that player can be found and in the even more unlikely event he's Premier League Ready, then IMHO the Albion won't just be fine, they'll never even be in the relegation conversation.

If not, if the club go again, and the same pattern starts forming, like you I reckon we're in a spot of bother.

 

[NooBHA]

Which players are you talking about?

We already have succession planning for Biss and Ben White. You really think we’re waiting to sell Biss before running out with a chequebook to find someone?

Tony and the club are a little more forward thinking than that.

I said I thought they COULD go down next season.

Last few seasons I never for a minute thought it was a possibility. I have never deviated from that.

It's a personal opinion. I gave my reasons why. It's just what I think. Nothing more so I wouldn't go all Doolally worrying what I think

 

[Swansman]

Its a bit too early to say isnt it..

 

[Machiavelli]

Its a bit too early to say isnt it..

It's not too early to place a bet though, is it?

 

[NooBHA]

Its a bit too early to say isnt it..

I tend to agree but the thread was there to be posted on and until the Euros come along in a couple of weeks then everything else in the interim is all gonna just be guesswork and personal opinion

 

[Machiavelli]

Despite the fact that it is too early to say, but it's not too early to place a bet, I will say:
-- all three promoted clubs will be very much in the relegation mix. You always get the 'there won't be teams as bad as the three that went down last season' comment. I doubt that'll be the case and, while this season's relegated clubs points total was particularly low, it has been historically low ever since we've been in the PL
-- beyond those three, the following four all look as though they'll be suffering from disruption of varying degrees: Palace, Southampton, Burnley and Wolves. All candidates for the drop if their restructuring plans don't go well.
-- I think we'll lose Biss, and he'll be difficult to replace (and we won't get a like-for-like replacement), but that should be compensated by the return from injury of several players (March and Lamptey foremost), and the flourishing of a few others (Moder, Mac Allister, perhaps Caicedo and Zeqiri). We need to re-sign Welbeck, and then target quality over quantity in terms of first XI/XVIII incomings -- a striker, left/wing back, decent back-up goalkeeper and wide forward are, for me, the key requirements. Get all or most of that done, and I think we'll be fine
-- some are stating that Leeds and Villa look like decent odds. I'd doubt either will struggle and will certainly not be spending any of my money and them being relegated

 

[BRIGHT ON Q]

The bookies do seem to love us.

 

[The Maharajah of Sydney]

Spread Markets have now been priced up.
Market looking for us to end up with around 46pts and in 12th position.
They weren't too far out at the start of last season, had us reaching 42pts but 3 spots higher up the table in 13th.

 

[Smillie's People]

Despite the fact that it is too early to say, but it's not too early to place a bet, I will say:
-- all three promoted clubs will be very much in the relegation mix. You always get the 'there won't be teams as bad as the three that went down last season' comment. I doubt that'll be the case and, while this season's relegated clubs points total was particularly low, it has been historically low ever since we've been in the PL
-- beyond those three, the following four all look as though they'll be suffering from disruption of varying degrees: Palace, Southampton, Burnley and Wolves. All candidates for the drop if their restructuring plans don't go well.
-- I think we'll lose Biss, and he'll be difficult to replace (and we won't get a like-for-like replacement), but that should be compensated by the return from injury of several players (March and Lamptey foremost), and the flourishing of a few others (Moder, Mac Allister, perhaps Caicedo and Zeqiri). We need to re-sign Welbeck, and then target quality over quantity in terms of first XI/XVIII incomings -- a striker, left/wing back, decent back-up goalkeeper and wide forward are, for me, the key requirements. Get all or most of that done, and I think we'll be fine
-- some are stating that Leeds and Villa look like decent odds. I'd doubt either will struggle and will certainly not be spending any of my money and them being relegated

Fair comment. I would like Brentford to stay up personally, but I can't see it happening, even if they go totally Danish.

 

[Swansman]

Fair comment. I would like Brentford to stay up personally, but I can't see it happening, even if they go totally Danish.

I think they have a better chance of staying up than Norwich or Watford. They know what they are doing.

 

[Smillie's People]

I think they have a better chance of staying up than Norwich or Watford. They know what they are doing.

Maybe Benham will take lessons from TB...

 

[Moshe Gariani]

Spread Markets have now been priced up.
Market looking for us to end up with around 46pts and in 12th position.
They weren't too far out at the start of last season, had us reaching 42pts but 3 spots higher up the table in 13th.


View attachment 138451

Feels about right (as you'd expect). Spread of 1.5pts is a big hurdle given predictable range.

 

[Johnny RoastBeef]

Maybe Benham will take lessons from TB...

His Champions League team shows he knows what he's doing.

 

[Seasidesage]

About a month from having an educated guess but if we went with what we have now, we'd have a few more quality options but no real addressing of our principle failing. I'd expect a similar outcome to last season. Flirt with, but ultimately comfortably survive relegation.

In a month it could look completely different, in a week it might for that matter...

 

[Wozza]

Albion are just 9/1 to finish top six with Paddy Power.
11/1 to finish top four.
11/10 to finish top half.
1/18 to stay up.

Oh, and 100/1 to WIN the Premier League, same as West Ham and Everton. For comparison, Leeds are 150/1. Newcastle are 750/1. Palace 1000/1. Southampton 1500/1.

*closes wallet*

 

[Icy Gull]

Albion are just 9/1 to finish top six with Paddy Power.
11/1 to finish top four.
11/10 to finish top half.
1/18 to stay up.

Oh, and 100/1 to WIN the Premier League, same as West Ham and Everton. For comparison, Leeds are 150/1. Newcastle are 750/1. Palace 1000/1. Southampton 1500/1.

*closes wallet*

I think this could be the season that [MENTION=616]Guinness Boy[/MENTION] leaps onto the “Potter is a bit bloody good” bandwagon then

 

[Sheebo]

Albion are just 9/1 to finish top six with Paddy Power.
11/1 to finish top four.
11/10 to finish top half.
1/18 to stay up.

Oh, and 100/1 to WIN the Premier League, same as West Ham and Everton. For comparison, Leeds are 150/1. Newcastle are 750/1. Palace 1000/1. Southampton 1500/1.

*closes wallet*

Mental odds!!! I guess it’s to do with the second half of last seasons form but even the most positive BHA fan wouldn’t price us at 11/10 for top half. Let’s hope they’re right!

 

[Simster]

Mental odds!!! I guess it’s to do with the second half of last seasons form but even the most positive BHA fan wouldn’t price us at 11/10 for top half. Let’s hope they’re right!

Eh? That means there is a 60% ish chance of us being in the bottom half. Let's hope they're wrong!

 

[White Fan man]

At the prices being quoted, I'd consider Leeds, West Ham, Villa and Wolves.

Leeds could get found out and might be in trouble if Bielsa ever walks
West Ham had a good season but I suspect that was a one off.
Aston Villa might fall apart if Grealish is sold
Wolves are an unknown quantity without their manager and don't have enough depth to be assured of avoiding a relegation fight.

I don't actually think any of them will go but all look value at the prices being quoted.

Found out? It is no secret how we play. Been playing the same way for 3 years. Plus the confidence gained from last season, fans back in the ground and Orta strengthening the squad means we will be okay. Plus we would have to be unlucky to have as many injuries as last season.