[Football] Relegation Odds 21/22 Season

[Weststander]

It really isn't. Betting is all about finding odds that are higher than the likelihood of the outcome. I'd put our chances of being relegated nearer the 5/1 that certain bookies are offering, rather than the 9/1 that others are. As another example, you'd have got decent odds on Sheff Utd being relegated at the start of the season (somebody might be able to post the oddstracker from back then), and even better odds on them finishing bottom.

And my post was parodying the posters who predict we’re going down before a ball is kicked, usually blamed on not singing a £40m striker.

 

[Machiavelli]

And my post was parodying the posters who predict we’re going down before a ball is kicked, usually blamed on not singing a £40m striker.

I did pick up on that, although you flummoxed at least one. So, will we be getting the £30m for Propper this summer?

 

[Change at Barnham]

Spain is strange. COVID has had a big impact on the top clubs spending plus RM are rebuilding their stadium (have a look at those that haven't see what they are doing). Both Barca and RM are coming to the end of eras where the teams need to be rebuilt. RM have better young players but are not necessarily playing them. Both sides are heavily in debt.
Italy is skint and France have PSG who have lost the title to Lille. TV deal has affected clubs in France which is how Leeds got Raphinia for only 17m. Leicester have also got some good players from France recently.

And the Chinese government have 'suggested' that Chinese companies should reduce their football investments.

Hence lots of nervous back peddling going on at Wolves, Southampton, Inter Milan and a few other clubs.

 

[vagabond]

Clearly the bookies must be very deluded! With our idiot manager and terrible owner who won’t fork out £50m for a striker we’re obviously going down [emoji6]

 

[Weststander]

I did pick up on that, although you flummoxed at least one. So, will we be getting the £30m for Propper this summer?

I’d drive him to Ajax myself to clear him out of our club. Taking 5% commission of the transfer fee, for my efforts.

 

[Weststander]

Clearly the bookies must be very deluded! With our idiot manager and terrible owner who won’t fork out £50m for a striker we’re obviously going down [emoji6]

Sycophants still rate TB as a good owner.

Delusional.

Mansour and Abramovich show it how it’s done, coughing up for decent strikers.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

It really isn't. Betting is all about finding odds that are higher than the likelihood of the outcome. I'd put our chances of being relegated nearer the 5/1 that certain bookies are offering, rather than the 9/1 that others are. As another example, you'd have got decent odds on Sheff Utd being relegated at the start of the season (somebody might be able to post the oddstracker from back then), and even better odds on them finishing bottom.

But any bet you make which loses is throwing money away at the end of the day ?

I don't think albion will go down whatever odds are given.

 

[warmleyseagull]

Money on Saints at 5/1. They are bottom of league for second half of season.

 

[HastingsSeagull]

The sides coming up all strike me as young, attacking sides. Those can often struggle despite you wanting them to do well more than boring, lumpy, 'historically big' clubs.

I really wish the likes of palarse assuming they don't spend well replacing 80% of their first team, Newcastle and Burnley could feck off down and the three promoted teams show it can be done. Won't be holding my breath though!

 

[vagabond]

Saints is a good shout.

I also think Wolves could have a troubling season if they don’t start well.

 

[RM-Taylor]

Brentford 11/10 on most sites with Watford. Thought they’d be priced lower than Norwich in fairness. Outside the 3 promoted teams Palace next favourites for the drop.

 

[RM-Taylor]

It really isn't. Betting is all about finding odds that are higher than the likelihood of the outcome. I'd put our chances of being relegated nearer the 5/1 that certain bookies are offering, rather than the 9/1 that others are. As another example, you'd have got decent odds on Sheff Utd being relegated at the start of the season (somebody might be able to post the oddstracker from back then), and even better odds on them finishing bottom.

https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/showthread.php?381685-Relegation-odds-20-21

Sheff Utd were 4/1, same as us

 

[Dave Fishwick]

surprised no firm stuck their neck out with Brentford - considering I imagine they will be shorter in the match prices than your Norwich's and Watfords

 

[Stat Brother]

surprised no firm stuck their neck out with Brentford - considering I imagine they will be shorter in the match prices than your Norwich's and Watfords

As they're guaranteed 4 points from us, they are probably tricky to price over the other 36 games.

 

[Simster]

As they're guaranteed 4 points from us, they are probably tricky to price over the other 36 games.

Although Brentford always beat us, it's also worth remembering that none of the relegated sides will lose to is either, thus obviously negating your well made point.


For what it's worth, Brentford at 11/10 is far too short for me. I sincerely believe they will have a first season not unlike ours was.

 

[Simster]

At the prices being quoted, I'd consider Leeds, West Ham, Villa and Wolves.

Leeds could get found out and might be in trouble if Bielsa ever walks
West Ham had a good season but I suspect that was a one off.
Aston Villa might fall apart if Grealish is sold
Wolves are an unknown quantity without their manager and don't have enough depth to be assured of avoiding a relegation fight.

I don't actually think any of them will go but all look value at the prices being quoted.

 

[Motogull]

Right then. We all know that us and the wankpuffins are in each other's places there:

1. They will get a funky new manager that will get them playing football.
2. Dibley will be impressed and stay, and he will grow up.
3. Benny will be Belgium's hero firing them to Euro glory, signing an extension and being the league's highest scorer.
4. The old players get a new lease of life and play like sprightly teenagers again.
5. They are fighting for euro qualification.
6. Despite all the bullshit about the new stand, the fans don't turn on Beaky.

(Before anyone gets pissy knickered, whatever we say about them goes wrong.) I am confident about the above.

 

[NooBHA]

I think Brighton could go down next year.

Haven't for a minute thought they would go down in the last 4 years but I have a feeling some of the key players might be sold in the summer for profit and I am not sure Recruitment is good enough to replace them if that happens. Also the teams coming up won't be anything like the 3 that went down this year. None of them broke 30 points and so never at any stage put any real pressure on the teams above them so it never really made the surviving teams nervous at any stage.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

I think Brighton could go down next year.

Haven't for a minute thought they would go down in the last 4 years but I have a feeling some of the key players might be sold in the summer for profit and I am not sure Recruitment is good enough to replace them if that happens. Also the teams coming up won't be anything like the 3 that went down this year. None of them broke 30 points and so never at any stage put any real pressure on the teams above them so it never really made the surviving teams nervous at any stage.

So you are basically saying that recruitment lucked out with the players we might sell and they probably won't with any replacements ?

 

[NooBHA]

So you are basically saying that recruitment lucked out with the players we might sell and they probably won't with any replacements ?

I am saying that some of the players that there is talk of selling have been pivotal to the team and it's survival in the league.