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[Football] Relegation odds 20/21



Elbow750

Well-known member
Jun 21, 2020
508
I do do gambling but I understand the stats. Why do bookies have us as less likely than say Burnley and Newcastyle to go down? Our run in is nasty (on paper at least).

We've got one more point and a much better G/D. Fulham have to win all their remaining 4 games, with us not picking up a point (unless we lose heavily) for them to overtake us. They can catch Newcastle and Burnley with 3 wins if N and B don't pick up any points, so although unlikely its not as hard as winning all 4 to catch us.
 




Weststander

Well-known member
Aug 25, 2011
69,271
Withdean area
I do do gambling but I understand the stats. Why do bookies have us as less likely than say Burnley and Newcastyle to go down? Our run in is nasty (on paper at least).

I’m no expert. My guess is due to sentiment in the markets. Odds aren’t a straight correlation to league position and future fixtures. Punters and bookmakers/lay betters seem to consistently think the others are a better bet to drop.
 


Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo

I believe in Joe Hendry
Oct 4, 2003
12,063
We've got one more point and a much better G/D. Fulham have to win all their remaining 4 games, with us not picking up a point (unless we lose heavily) for them to overtake us. They can catch Newcastle and Burnley with 3 wins if N and B don't pick up any points, so although unlikely its not as hard as winning all 4 to catch us.

Plus Fulham play Newcastle and Burnley which means there is more chance of catching either of them than us as it stands. Should Newcastle and Burnley pick up any points this weekend they’ll be priced up similar to what we are.
 


perseus

Broad Blue & White stripe
Jul 5, 2003
23,461
Sūþseaxna
39 points needed

4 successive wins in less favourable circumstances has been done before.
 


essbee1

Well-known member
Jun 25, 2014
4,725
39 points needed

4 successive wins in less favourable circumstances has been done before.

Fulham are a bunch of borrowed players. Most will know they are off back somewhere else soon. They will not be that bothered in trying
to achieve 4 wins. That is why they are doomed.
 




















Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo

I believe in Joe Hendry
Oct 4, 2003
12,063

How was that less favourable circumstances ? We were only 2 points behind Norwich, 3 behind Coventry and 4 behind Sunderland with 4 games to go. Fulham are 9 points behind Newcastle and Burnley who both have a game in hand.
 




Blue Valkyrie

Not seen such Bravery!
Sep 1, 2012
32,165
Valhalla
I do do gambling but I understand the stats. Why do bookies have us as less likely than say Burnley and Newcastyle to go down? Our run in is nasty (on paper at least).
Because to stay up Fulham have to win a lot of their games which ( if successful ) means they have likely beaten Burnley and Newcastle. Fulham can't take any points off us with their required wins.
 










KLUNK

Member
Mar 30, 2010
552
East Sussex
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Hard to see anything other than the current bottom three staying that way. Newcastle are the only side who may worry if they lose to Arsenal later. They face Leicester & Man City afterwards. If Fulham beat Burnley & Southampton(not impossible), then Newcastle v Su & Man United v Fulham on their penultimate fixtures could throw up an interesting finale. With our survival now almost certain, I’d like to see our new target to be finishing above Palace...
 




perseus

Broad Blue & White stripe
Jul 5, 2003
23,461
Sūþseaxna
How was that less favourable circumstances ? We were only 2 points behind Norwich, 3 behind Coventry and 4 behind Sunderland with 4 games to go. Fulham are 9 points behind Newcastle and Burnley who both have a game in hand.

2 POINTS FOR A WIN. We were expected to lose to Sunderland and go down. Sunderland won at Liverpool.
 


Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo

I believe in Joe Hendry
Oct 4, 2003
12,063
2 POINTS FOR A WIN. We were expected to lose to Sunderland and go down. Sunderland won at Liverpool.

So even taking into account 2 points for a win we were 1 win behind Norwich and 2 behind Sunderland. A loss to Sunderland wouldn't have been enough to confirm our relegation either as we'd have been relying on other results and winning on the last day of the season against Leeds. As it is beating Sunderland meant we went into the Leeds game knowing victory would be enough to stay up (baring a huge goal difference turn around for Norwich).

Fulham are 3 wins behind their nearest rivals with 4 games left and their nearest rivals have a game in hand. Fulham’s circumstances are miles less favourable than ours were that season (and that isn’t taking away from what we achieved that season). Fulham's chances of survival are reduced even more if Newcastle and Burnley wins in their next games, so them winning all 4 and staying up it will go down as one of the greatest and most unlikely escapes ever.
 
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