Red or Black theory

[father_and_son]

Obviously it doesn't guarantee a win. You are just placing a monster stack at very short odds to win a tiny amount. That's not guaranteeing a win.

With infinite money and an infinite house limit, I must win a hand eventually and therefore be [another] £1 up and have "won". Therefore I am guaranteed to win.

 

[Tummy Burger]

Completely agree. I was applying watered down version of this a few years back on football and was £15,000 up at one point. A year later a was many mulpiles of this down. You need almost infinite funds to make it work

I'm not the only one then. Spent a ridiculous amount of time looking at spreadsheets of football stats to try and come up with that winning formula. Bizarrely I have had the most success on scorelines. A bet where the odds are supposedly heavily in the bookies favour.

 

[Lovecake]

My friend tried this last night and won quite a lot of money.

Basically the idea is to stick with one colour tripling every time you lose, and when you win starting again at £1.

1. £1 Winnings (not including stake) £1 Probability of losing = 50%
2. £3 " £2 " 25%
3. £9 " £5 " 12.5%
4. £27 " £14 " 6.25%
5. £81 " £41 " 3.125%
6. £243 " £122 " 1.5625%
7. £729 " £365 " 0.78125%
(continue)

Can't say i would have the guts to keep going when the money starts going into the triple figures but that's the idea, anyone tried anything similar to this? I suppose the idea is if you have the money you will eventually win.

Zero means a small percentage loss

However i have seen Red/Black come up 6/7 times in a row a few times

I beg you not to try this

 

[Tummy Burger]

I will let you all in to a little secret. There is ONE bet where you can't lose.

I'm going to get shot down here.

Always Back palace to win. It's a win win bet in my book.

 

[Triggaaar]

With infinite money and an infinite house limit, I must win a hand eventually and therefore be [another] £1 up and have "won". Therefore I am guaranteed to win.

Since you're being pedantic, I'll join you - you also have to have infinite time, so you need to be immortal. Back on planet earth, you don't have infinite money and the house doesn't have an infinite limit. You said if you have deep enough pockets you are guaranteed to win, and that's simply not true. With deep pockets and the aim of winning a small amount, the odds are massively in your favour, but you are not guaranteed to win.

 

[yxee]

hmm

 

[slimes]

Did it,tho not that way,watched black come in 13 times in a row,would rather bet onthe last colour,black,bet black

 

[father_and_son]

As per trig. Roulette is in the houses favour, end of. You can't beat or improve your chances, say by counting cards etc. every spin of the wheel is independent of what went before it. Because its been red 8 times in a row does not mean there is more chance of the next being black. The odds re the same. However with the footy, I personally DO think it is different. What is the longest run where say the Albion lost in a row ( Hinsh ). Or won in. Row, it's got o end at some point.

Lets say we are top of the league and won 10 on the spin. The odds actually go the opposite way. Lower for the team constantly winning, and higher for the opposing side as they are supposedly less likely to win. Add in a very mild Bozza type increasing stake and there is my little , well theory anyway. Needless to say , I haven't quit my job yet.

I have seen a roulette strategy which takes into account the very small amount of predictability that you can get... the croupier is supposed to spin both the wheel and the ball at a different speed with each new game to ensure a random result. But the strategy said that close to the end of a shift, when a croupier is tired, they get lazy and the variations in spins become less and less and so the predictability of the quarter/third of the wheel the ball will land in (too many factors in play to say the exact number) increases. By using Tier or Voisins as call bets you don't need to place the complex chip arrangements in many casinos, just make the call and give them the total bet meaning you can bet very late into the spin. The guy I knew would get increasing late with his calls and often have them refused but he swore blind he shifted the odds into his favour with a lazy croupier. Far too much effort for my liking but I do think he had something.

 

[hybrid_x]

Explain this will you?

So at 60mins you do 2 separate bets.

Eg. Bet 1)Home win with draw no bet
Bet 2) Away win with draw no bet

60/70 mins......a) a game thats drawing and pick the team on top - BET TO WIN OR DRAW...in a double with, another a)

(usually 2 home teams).

the double bet is around evens, can add in a 3rd team too if one likes of another a).

 

[reigate]

I'm not the only one then. Spent a ridiculous amount of time looking at spreadsheets of football stats to try and come up with that winning formula. Bizarrely I have had the most success on scorelines. A bet where the odds are supposedly heavily in the bookies favour.

Yeah that's what i'm into now. I'm about £2k up this season, but my biggest stake is only about £20.

I'll never win back what I lost, but loads of small bets will pay for my season ticket and away games etc. Due to the small stakes, having enough capital should not be a problem. I get as much of a buzz from that as I did when staking thousands at time. And it;s a lot less stressful!

 

[father_and_son]

It was blackjack not roulette and some guys from MIT. It's a great story.

There's a film/documentary about it... Called "Wedding in Las Vegas" if I remember correctly. Got the professor banned from every casino in the world. It was a computer controlled card counting scam. The "Bride" and "Groom" play at the table, other "guests" act as blockers to obscure vision as much a possible. One of the watchers is typing into a customised keypad in his pocket every card being played. A paired computer on the Groom's leg is telling him when to take a card and when not with small electric shocks.
A well trained memory and some very agile mental arithmetic you can do the same without the computers.

 

[Brovion]

It was blackjack not roulette and some guys from MIT. It's a great story.

Yeah, the story got made into the film 21 with Kevin Spacey and some other people I can't remember. (Spacey played the MIT professor who ran the scheme). As the title of the film suggests it was Blackjack, not roulette which cannot be 'cracked' as it is pure chance - although my sister (who used to be a croupier) said there is some truth in father_and_son's claim about tired croupiers at the end of a shift and punters could win if they 'went with the wheel'. They were told to be aware and concentrate all the time so you didn't develop a 'fist' that could be exploited.

 

[Triggaaar]

There's a film/documentary about it... Called "Wedding in Las Vegas" if I remember correctly. Got the professor banned from every casino in the world. It was a computer controlled card counting scam. The "Bride" and "Groom" play at the table, other "guests" act as blockers to obscure vision as much a possible. One of the watchers is typing into a customised keypad in his pocket every card being played. A paired computer on the Groom's leg is telling him when to take a card and when not with small electric shocks.
A well trained memory and some very agile mental arithmetic you can do the same without the computers.

There was a documentary on those from MIT doing simple card counting, no computer needed.

 

[Stevie Boy]

You could do what Ashley Revell did back in 2006 and bet your 75 grand life savings on red or black. He went red and won. Tried to post the you tube clip but for some reason having problems doing so. If anyone can do so, would be nice. Very good to watch. You actually feel nervous for him.

Red or Black? - Betting your whole life on one roulette spin - YouTube

 

[Brovion]

There was a documentary on those from MIT doing simple card counting, no computer needed.

Yeah, in the film it was 'simple' mental agility they used, no artificial means at all. Mind you it was a movie so it could have taken the standard Hollywood approach to the truth. "Winner winner chicken dinner!"

 

[Tummy Burger]

Yeah that's what i'm into now. I'm about £2k up this season, but my biggest stake is only about £20.

I'll never win back what I lost, but loads of small bets will pay for my season ticket and away games etc. Due to the small stakes, having enough capital should not be a problem. I get as much of a buzz from that as I did when staking thousands at time. And it;s a lot less stressful!

If you can assure yourself a profit each season though. Surely you should be throwing the kitchen sink at it. Although I appreciate it does take the fun out of it. I assume you use betfair ?.

 

[Biscuit]

You could do what Ashley Revell did back in 2006 and bet your 75 grand life savings on red or black. He went red and won. Tried to post the you tube clip but for some reason having problems doing so. If anyone can do so, would be nice. Very good to watch. You actually feel nervous for him.

WOW good shout. I was nervous watching! YouTube

 

[reigate]

If you can assure yourself a profit each season though. Surely you should be throwing the kitchen sink at it. Although I appreciate it does take the fun out of it. I assume you use betfair ?.

I guess i'm still too nervous to stake too much sp go for low risk low return strategy. You won't belive the run of bad luck i had and it was only because I have a well paid job that I could afford to keep going so long and then get my self sorted once I lost a lot. I bottled it when the house was all I had left....

I have a betfair account but often find the odds aren't as good as some others. (I think people forget the 5% comissioon when they say how good the odds are). Sometimes I have to use them as a few of the big names won't accept my bets thes days....

 

[Mtoto]

As per trig. Roulette is in the houses favour, end of. You can't beat or improve your chances, say by counting cards etc. every spin of the wheel is independent of what went before it. Because its been red 8 times in a row does not mean there is more chance of the next being black. The odds re the same. However with the footy, I personally DO think it is different.

That's because it *is* different, profoundly so. It's the difference between pure, mechanical gambling like roulette, which has a fixed margin you cannot beat, and betting, in which the margin (the over-round on the book) varies, and you can decide whether it suits you or not.

"Betting" and "gambling" are used so often in the media etc as if the two words are interchangeable that it's understandable many people don't appreciate the difference. There is also the obvious example of FOBT machines, which masquerade as "betting terminals" but are actually hard gambling. If you gamble, you have no more chance of success, and will do no better, than a chimpanzee that has been taught to play the same game. When you bet, you use your brain to make decisions about what to back. You will still probably lose in the end, because of the over-round, but the more you think about it, the less you will lose, and there are those who spend enough time applying thought to it to make a profit in the long term. (Then they face the problem of being restricted, of course...)

 

[Tummy Burger]

I guess i'm still too nervous to stake too much sp go for low risk low return strategy. You won't belive the run of bad luck i had and it was only because I have a well paid job that I could afford to keep going so long and then get my self sorted once I lost a lot. I bottled it when the house was all I had left....

I have a betfair account but often find the odds aren't as good as some others. (I think people forget the 5% comissioon when they say how good the odds are). Sometimes I have to use them as a few of the big names won't accept my bets thes days....

That's what I thought. I've heard stories of bookies closing accounts when people have actually not won that much. At least there is still Betfair for when that happens. Maybe we should have a permanent tipping thread with profit and loss for folk to follow. I will happily embarrass myself.