Red or Black theory

[sussexadz121]

Could you cover this by say, putting a smaller amount on zero on every red or black spin ? You would need to be fairly comfortable to consider having a go at this though.

 

[sussexadz121]

Could you cover this by say, putting a smaller amount on zero on every red or black spin ? You would need to be fairly comfortable to consider having a go at this though.

I have just thought this through.... it doesn't work ! my bad

 

[Tummy Burger]

Like I said it doesn't work. Just google martingale strategy, and you will find plenty of links to the math behind it all. It will work for a short term, then you will lose and wipe out everything you just won.

 

[StonehamPark]

Just don't play Roulette, full.

 

[Brovion]

It's called Martingale and it's the oldest betting strategy in the book. However it WILL make you a small fortune - if you start with a large one. If you don't believe me feel free to try it.


EDIT: I see Tummy Burger beat me to it!

 

[reigate]

Like I said it doesn't work. Just google martingale strategy, and you will find plenty of links to the math behind it all. It will work for a short term, then you will lose and wipe out everything you just won.

Completely agree. I was applying watered down version of this a few years back on football and was £15,000 up at one point. A year later a was many mulpiles of this down. You need almost infinite funds to make it work

 

[Bozza]

Both [MENTION=449]Biffer[/MENTION] and [MENTION=394]nail-Z[/MENTION] have seen me in action doing stuff like this. I'd like to think I'm highly rational, I'm pretty decent at maths and probability but become an utter buffoon when it comes to roulette.

I took my Mum to Vegas for her 60th and by chasing a loss in this exact way, I used all of my gambling cash, which was supposed to last me 5 days, on my very first night.

In the end, when I visited UK casinos, I'd just cut out the middle man and put a single very lumpy bet on an evens chance, and either double my money or lose it all in a single spin. I don't bet at all now for obvious reasons!

You'll get more play, and a greater chance of success by following a slightly different rule..

If you lose, add 1 (or 1 unit) to your next bet. If you win, take 1 (or one unit) from your next bet.

It's not so spectacular, but means you can ride out quite long losing periods.

 

[Triggaaar]

This is doomed to fail because you will either meet the house bet limit which means all staked on that run is lost, or the casino will just ban you as they will no you are doing it and they do not like it.

You'd have to go some to get banned.

Basically, whatever your limit is, you are staking at odds on to win a small amount. You'll normally win, until one day you lose big.
Someone did this with millions at London Clubs, and used to take loads home every time. Eventually he lost big.

 

[father_and_son]

The "double if you lose" is the most basic way of guaranteeing a win in a casino... unfortunately you need very deep pockets and balls of steel.

Bet £1.
Lose = bet £2 (you'll win the £1 you lost, plus be up a £1)
Lose again = bet £4 (you've lost £3 so far, so if you win you're up £1)
...
Every time you win, your next bet is £1.

Your bet sequence runs.... £1, £2, £4, £8, £16, £32, £64, £128, £256 (run out of bottle yet?), £512 (how about now), £1,024 (ok let's bet a grand to win a pound), £2,048, £4,096?, £8,192 (ballsy f**ker), £16,384 (cost of a small new car to win a £1), £32,768 (how about a nice family car?), £65,336 (a luxury car?), c'mon, who's got the balls to bet a small 1-bed flat on the next game?

Theoretically you can't fail, but reality is, house limits and the size of your budget will kill you, even on a perfectly fair game.

Time isn't your friend either. Let's assume that you can win every other game on average... it would take 2,000 games to win £1,000 (every time you win you're up another £1, but you only win half the games).

Let's say you're playing blackjack on a 6-deck shoe, 1 hand vs bank, that's about 40-50 hands per shoe say 1 min per hand plus say 3 mins for a shuffle. So something of the order of 8 hours non-stop playing time to get a grand from the house. But hit a bad run and you've lost that amount in 11 hands or just over 10mins.


I've a degree in Maths, I work as a practical statistician and I used to gamble (too much) and this was the basic strategy that I played blackjack to. Playing to certain rules and with a little card-counting going on, I believe that I got up to a 6% advantage on the house (I'd will win 6% more games than I'd lose - small computer program to play 1000's of hands), but in the long run I'd lose because I couldn't continue betting past a certain point either because I hadn't got the cash or I'd hit the table limit.

 

[GingerBeerMan]

I took my Mum to Vegas for her 60th and by chasing a loss in this exact way, I used all of my gambling cash, which was supposed to last me 5 days, on my very first night.

The fact you actually allocated money to gamble with shows you're smarter than 99% of people that play roulette.
IMO Roulette is a game for people who are too lazy and stupid to learn how to play poker, and (if they play for anything other than enjoyment) deserve all that comes to them.

 

[imissworthing2]

i looked into this a while ago - it has been recorded of RED or BLACK occuring 18 times in a row.....you need a big bank account.

i stick with footy "in play" evens bets. doubles of two teams "double chance" draw no bet, at 60 minutes..........this is where the money is.....you can see how the game is flowing and double your money......if you lose - double up the stake on the next "double bet."

accumulators harldy ever come in - when they do - it just keeps you at them for another year or so.

texas holdem and blackjack can be profitbale too if one knows what they are doing (not so much me).

Explain this will you?

So at 60mins you do 2 separate bets.

Eg. Bet 1)Home win with draw no bet
Bet 2) Away win with draw no bet

 

[Triggaaar]

the most basic way of guaranteeing a win in a casino

Obviously it doesn't guarantee a win. You are just placing a monster stack at very short odds to win a tiny amount. That's not guaranteeing a win.

 

[k2bluesky]

Yep think all gamblers have tried this at one time in their evolution but you have to know when to quit as greed will always kill you in the end.
There was a guy who cracked roulette but he used a team of 6 players at one table, (hard to do in busy casinos) each playing a game different type of game and they worked for 5/6 hours a day over a 2 week period (hard work with the concentration required) and and walked away with 20k for a 2k stake but the casino rumbled them and they were told not to come back, think it was somewhere in France in the 90's.The idea was that one of them always won big by playing a system, thus swallowing the loses of the others, with everyone on a set stake for the night.

 

[kingcole]

i looked into this a while ago - it has been recorded of RED or BLACK occuring 18 times in a row.....you need a big bank account.

i stick with footy "in play" evens bets. doubles of two teams "double chance" draw no bet, at 60 minutes..........this is where the money is.....you can see how the game is flowing and double your money......if you lose - double up the stake on the next "double bet."

Really, so you are better than the bookies and can beat their odds?

accumulators harldy ever come in - when they do - it just keeps you at them for another year or so.

True

texas holdem and blackjack can be profitbale too if one knows what they are doing (not so much me).

Blackjack can only be profitable if you cheat - ie. Card counting. Although not illegal, most casinos will ask you to leave if they even suspect you might be counting cards. By playing a decent strategy and not cheating, the house advantage can be reduced to tiny amounts, but the house will still win in the end. If you are getting free drinks and enjoying the game, Blackjack, can be one of the best value forms of 'Entertainment' as you should pay less for this, that you would say slots or roulette.

Texas Holdem can be profitable, but this depends on you being a better player than your opponents. You don't just have to be better, you have to be a lot better, as you need to allow for the house rake or table fees. Even if you do have an advantage, you need a bankroll and the mindset that will overcome short term bad luck.

Just my view.....

 

[Triggaaar]

There was a guy who cracked roulette but he used a team of 6 players at one table

I don't believe you.

they worked for 5/6 hours a day over a 2 week period (hard work with the concentration required) and and walked away with 20k for a 2k stake but the casino rumbled them and they were told not to come back

Sounds like they got lucky. It doesn't matter how many people place how many bets, the odds are in the casino's favour every time they spin.

 

[Jim Van Winkle]

You could do what Ashley Revell did back in 2006 and bet your 75 grand life savings on red or black. He went red and won. Tried to post the you tube clip but for some reason having problems doing so. If anyone can do so, would be nice. Very good to watch. You actually feel nervous for him.

That was a sham. Nice bit of marketing by the casino. Was it filmed "live" you can bet everything you own that it wasn't.

 

[Bozza]

Yep think all gamblers have tried this at one time in their evolution but you have to know when to quit as greed will always kill you in the end.
There was a guy who cracked roulette but he used a team of 6 players at one table, (hard to do in busy casinos) each playing a game different type of game and they worked for 5/6 hours a day over a 2 week period (hard work with the concentration required) and and walked away with 20k for a 2k stake but the casino rumbled them and they were told not to come back, think it was somewhere in France in the 90's.The idea was that one of them always won big by playing a system, thus swallowing the loses of the others, with everyone on a set stake for the night.

It was blackjack not roulette and some guys from MIT. It's a great story.

 

[Bozza]

The "double if you lose" is the most basic way of guaranteeing a win in a casino... unfortunately you need very deep pockets and balls of steel.

Bet £1.
Lose = bet £2 (you'll win the £1 you lost, plus be up a £1)
Lose again = bet £4 (you've lost £3 so far, so if you win you're up £1)
...

Where are these casinos that allow £1 even stakes bets? Your unit stake is more likely to be either a fiver or a tenner.

 

[yxee]

The underlying phenomenon is the same so your expectation is always the same, ie. you will lose (1/37)th of your stake, on average, every single bet, regardless of the bet size.

All you can change with different betting strategies is to alter the skewness of the probability distribution. The martingale is a great way of winning a small amount or losing a lot.

 

[Tummy Burger]

As per trig. Roulette is in the houses favour, end of. You can't beat or improve your chances, say by counting cards etc. every spin of the wheel is independent of what went before it. Because its been red 8 times in a row does not mean there is more chance of the next being black. The odds re the same. However with the footy, I personally DO think it is different. What is the longest run where say the Albion lost in a row ( Hinsh ). Or won in. Row, it's got o end at some point.

Lets say we are top of the league and won 10 on the spin. The odds actually go the opposite way. Lower for the team constantly winning, and higher for the opposing side as they are supposedly less likely to win. Add in a very mild Bozza type increasing stake and there is my little , well theory anyway. Needless to say , I haven't quit my job yet.