[Football] Promotion Calculator

[8ace]

Anyone have Boro down for a defeat today
These things are a bit pointless if you do the "predict the result every game" method IMHO.

 

[Joshski]

I've got us down as 4th by 3 points but put draws against Burnley, Middlesborough, Birmingham, even though it's a little noddy and loads can change it shows how big these games against promotion rivals are going to be without winning them!

P GD Pts
1 Burnley 46 +36 90
2 Hull 46 +33 90
3 Middlesbrough 46 +31 88
4 Brighton 46 +24 87
5 Derby 46 +18 76
6 Sheff Wed 46 +18 72
7 Birmingham 46 +7 69
8 Ipswich 46 +2 69
9 Cardiff 46 +7 68
10 Preston 46 +7 68
11 Blackburn 46 +11 64
12 Nott'm Forest 46 +3 61
13 QPR 46 -3 60
14 Wolverhampton 46 -9 57
15 Leeds 46 -11 56
16 Huddersfield 46 -4 55
17 Brentford 46 -17 53
18 Reading 46 -10 51
19 Bristol City 46 -26 48
20 Rotherham 46 -19 46
21 MK Dons 46 -24 44
22 Fulham 46 -13 41
23 Bolton 46 -26 38
24 Charlton 46 -42 36

 

[Taybha]

Anyone have Boro down for a defeat today
These things are a bit pointless if you do the "predict the result every game" method IMHO.

Nope , screwed mine up already , also had Derby and Ipswich winning

 

[Peter Grummit]

Having had a play around with the calculator there is one clear conclusion.

The simulator is bolloc*s.

If you don't input any forecasts and leave it to 'recent form' then we finish 3rd with 79 points, EIGHT behind Hull in 2nd.

Whoever said: "assume everyone else averages 2 points per game, how many will we need?" has the right idea. We would need 90, which is 9 wins from 12 games. I'll buy that.

Only when we are down to the last 3-4 games is the 'predict all results' approach of any value in my view.

PG

I have redone it, again with no predictions just allowing the automatic result generator:

Pos Team P GD Pts
1 Burnley 46 +28 85
2 Brighton 46 +22 84
3 Hull 46 +29 81
4 Middlesbrough 46 +23 80
5 Derby 46 +17 75
6 Cardiff 46 +12 75
7 Sheff Wed 46 +17 72
8 Birmingham 46 +4 67

Still don't believe this. But it does help demonstrate how other teams (bar Burnley) have stumbled in the last week or so.

For those numpties who have said, "that's it, we drew with Wednesday, season over" then take a deep breath and keep the faith. Still 10 games to go, a huge range of outcomes are still possible.

PG

 

[ipad1977]

I have redone it, again with no predictions just allowing the automatic result generator:

Pos Team P GD Pts
1 Burnley 46 +28 85
2 Brighton 46 +22 84
3 Hull 46 +29 81
4 Middlesbrough 46 +23 80
5 Derby 46 +17 75
6 Cardiff 46 +12 75
7 Sheff Wed 46 +17 72
8 Birmingham 46 +4 67

Still don't believe this. But it does help demonstrate how other teams (bar Burnley) have stumbled in the last week or so.

For those numpties who have said, "that's it, we drew with Wednesday, season over" then take a deep breath and keep the faith. Still 10 games to go, a huge range of outcomes are still possible.

PG

A huge range of outcomes are highly possible. Hull now have the most games to play where anything can happen, yet they risk fatigue.

Burnley started their run just a bit too early IMHO, they can't keep a run of mainly wins going for 23 games and are due their 2nd half of the season wobble soon.

Boro are the hardest of the lot to predict for; looking at their results so far for home and aways and against different levels of opposition they are actually more likely to drop a heap of points against Charlton, Bolton and QPR to go with those against Rotherham last night , whilst turning over Burnley, Hull, Brighton, Ipswich and Sheff Wed.

And then there's Brighton. An enigma when you look at form, they don't have too many of the names out from during the season's nadir and any number of points from a woeful total to an astounding one may be possible.

 

[Miami Seagull]

Mine came out with us 2nd to Middlesbro. I think their run in looks very good...we would need a point up there on the final day...dream dream dream!!

 

[8ace]

 

[Peter Grummit]

View attachment 72938

I like that model. 10% chance of top 2 and 3% of missing the playoffs feels right.

All the more reason to keep those playoff dates clear.

PG

 

[perseus]

If we win all five home games I think we can take it ioto the wire, last day.

 

[Hamilton]

I thought I was being realistic and I had us finish in the top 2.

 

[8ace]

I like that model. 10% chance of top 2 and 3% of missing the playoffs feels right.

All the more reason to keep those playoff dates clear.

PG

It would be interesting to see this model weighted to account for "number of first choice players available" - we may fair a bit better.

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

I have us coming 4th. Two points off 2nd.

Playing Wednesday who finish fifth.

 

[The Rattler]

1 Burnley 46 +43 101
2 Hull 46 +42 94
3 Middlesbrough 46 +35 90
4 Brighton 46 +16 79
5 Derby 46 +20 77
6 Sheff Wed 46 +21 75
7 Ipswich 46 +8 75
8 QPR 46 +6 68

I may have over-rated Burnley!

 

[perseus]

One chance in hell. Different if we beat Boro (instead of a draw) and Burnley only draw their last game of te 46 (expected to win it).

 

[darkwolf666]

After the latest results, I have us going into the last game with the teams on the following points:-

Burnley - 91
Boro - 87
BHA - 86
Hull - 84

So we would need to go to Boro to get a win and clinch second place - simples!

 

[Joshski]

I still have Brighton 4th still (on goal difference behind Boro), have been pessimistic on the QPR, Boro, Burnley and Birmingham games though.

I think Hull will be the strongest competition for 2nd place (assuming Burnley win it), so maybe a home win on Friday will suit us in the long run as we still have Boro to play...

 

[TSB]

Hull have scored four goals in ten games and have just drawn AT HOME against the teams in 21st and 14th place.
Why do people think they'll finish above us?

 

[Petee]

1 Burnley 46 96
2 Brighton 46 90
3 Hull 46 87
4 Middlesbrough 46 83

With a loss vs Burnley and a draw vs Boro.

 

[aolstudios]

Darn...

1 Burnley 46 +39 92
2 Hull 46 +32 88
3 Brighton 46 +23 85
4 Middlesbrough 46 +26 84
5 Sheff Wed 46 +21 77
6 Derby 46 +17 77

 

[northstandsteve]

Hull have scored four goals in ten games and have just drawn AT HOME against the teams in 21st and 14th place.
Why do people think they'll finish above us?

Commonsense statement at last, i'm feeling pretty confident it will be close.