[Football] Promotion Calculator

[warmleyseagull]

Boro are still in the mix because they built a good lead a few months ago. Their current form is poor though.

I did watch the game last night and Hull looked like they were trying hard, but still made a few silly mistakes. Including one that lead to the goal. Hulls defenders are player well but their strikers have completely bottled it. They've scored three goals in six games... hardly the sign of an in form side. Hitting the woodwork isn't going to cut it. No side in the top four can afford a sticky patch now, and Hull are definitely it a little one when it comes to scoring. You can't win without scoring and 0-0 draws aren't going to be enough.

Good point - Bruce mentioned after game that they cannot rely on Hernandez all the time and even he isnt firing consistently. Our strength is goals from all over, which is way Bournemouth did it last season. Curious to be saying this after the lean spell, but that's how football changes.

 

[Jack Straw]

Oh dear!

1 Middlesbrough 46 +39 93
2 Hull 46 +36 88
3 Burnley 46 +35 87
4 Sheff Wed 46 +28 81
5 Derby 46 +23 79
6 Brighton 46 +16 79
7 Birmingham 46 +9 72
8 Cardiff 46 +7 71
9 Brentford 46 -2 61
10 Nott'm Forest 46 +3 60
11 QPR 46 -1 60
12 Blackburn 46 +5 59
13 Ipswich 46 -8 59
14 Reading 46 +1 58
15 Fulham 46 +1 55

 

[darkwolf666]

Boro are fading away, Hull can't score of late. It's between us and Burnley.

Love this!

 

[darkwolf666]

Good point - Bruce mentioned after game that they cannot rely on Hernandez all the time and even he isnt firing consistently. Our strength is goals from all over, which is way Bournemouth did it last season. Curious to be saying this after the lean spell, but that's how football changes.

Oh so having one big name striker isn't always the best tactic then, maybe better to share the goals out and not have one player for the opposition to mark out of the game!

 

[darkwolf666]

Oh dear!

1 Middlesbrough 46 +39 93
2 Hull 46 +36 88
3 Burnley 46 +35 87
4 Sheff Wed 46 +28 81
5 Derby 46 +23 79
6 Brighton 46 +16 79
7 Birmingham 46 +9 72
8 Cardiff 46 +7 71
9 Brentford 46 -2 61
10 Nott'm Forest 46 +3 60
11 QPR 46 -1 60
12 Blackburn 46 +5 59
13 Ipswich 46 -8 59
14 Reading 46 +1 58
15 Fulham 46 +1 55

So we will only get 16 more points from the next 36 yet our goal difference will go up! Doesn't make sense.

 

[perseus]

You think Burnley will finish level with Derby on 81 points! That's madness. Burnley are the in-form team, have a decent run-in and are 8 points ahead of a Derby team that are in free-fall and have just got rid of their manager.

And 85 points won't be enough for 2nd.

On the long haul, I tend not go for current form, but on ability of their respective players (compared to their opponents) and tactical styles etc.

For my part, I see mostly the teams when they play at the Amex. e.g. Boro seem to be a defensive counter-attacking team away from home, but I don't know how they play at home? Might do after tonight.

Burnley and Brighton seem to be the most complete teams (total football) but they rely for a third of their goals on Gray and Hernandez. cf: We rely 25% on Hemed (goals + assists).

Brighton are a complete team too, but appear the most error prone.

Derby seem like a possession side, and still don't know if they are slow in midfield or it is just the way they play? They were the better team against Burnley and lost 1-4 (all the errors in one game, unlike us). They beat Hull 2-0 and I thought Hull were the better team. Not made up my mind about Boro. They have some good players on their day, but short of playing deep and catching other teams on the counter I am not sure if they can beat teams at home like Wolves? (deduct 3 pts or 2 pts if they don't win tonight!)

Sheff Wed were my pre-season tip as Champions.

 

[mreprice]

Final day will be huge. Almost no chance we will have secured a top two spot by then, some chance we will be in one a big chance we will be playing for one.

 

[bn1&bn3 Albion]

Before the last game of the season I have...

Hull - 91
Boro - 91
Brighton - 90

 

[Jack Straw]

So we will only get 16 more points from the next 36 yet our goal difference will go up! Doesn't make sense.

It seems we're going to give someone one hell of a beating!

 

[darkwolf666]

It seems we're going to give someone one hell of a beating!

Margaret Thatcher. Winston Churchill etc...

 

[darkwolf666]

Before the last game of the season I have...

Hull - 91
Boro - 91
Brighton - 90

And Burnley?

 

[bn1&bn3 Albion]

And Burnley?

I think I had them on 86 points.

 

[Kuipers Supporters Club]

 

[perseus]

duplicate post

 

[perseus]

Boro played last night and they looked fractionally better than the Albion (Adomah looked better than Baldock playing in the same position) beating the average teams. On my revised forecast above, all we have to do to get automatic promotion is to equal their performances (means beating both Sheff Wed and Burnley), pick up an extra point, and beat them on their own ground on the last of 46 to pip them for the autos.

 

[saafend_seagull]

We need 9 wins and a draw from last 12 - can't lose to burnley or mboro.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

9 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss = 92 points.

Draws : Preston, Birmingham
Loss : Middlesbrough

 

[Lenny Rider]

Even after tonight I've still got us winning the League against Derby.

 

[Eeyore]

1 Burnley 94
2 Middlesbrough 92
3 Hull City 90
4 Brighton & Hove Albion 86
5 Derby County 84
6 Sheffield Wednesday 77

 

[Ecosse Exile]

If form is anything to go by, Burnley are going to run away with the league, Middlesbrough's will fall away and it will be very tight between us and Hull for 2nd.

I have looked at how many games teams have left, taken the points gained from their recent games of the same amount, and added the points to the current points.

E.G. Brighton have 10 games left, over the previous 10 games we have amassed 21 points, we currently have 65 points add 21 and we will finish with 86 points. Hull have 12 games left so I have taken their points tally from their previous 12 games etc.

Final table
1 Burnley 97
2 Hull City 87
3 Brighton 86
4 M'boro 82
5 Cardiff 73
6 Sheff Wed 72
7 Birmingham 72
8 Derby 71
9 Ipswich 70

So if everyone would just be so kind as to carry on as they are, and if Hull wouldn't mind a little dip in form due to having to many games in too short a time, we may just nick that 2nd spot