I think I agree with you, waiting to see how they go against Leics tomorrow and may switch at least one to a draw. The longer Sheff U and Wolves have something to play for the better
[Albion] Points to be safe this season
- Thread starter Bozza
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I think I agree with you, waiting to see how they go against Leics tomorrow and may switch at least one to a draw. The longer Sheff U and Wolves have something to play for the better
Have not seen much of Villa lately but think Watford Norwich Bournmouth and West Ham have looked very good. West Ham dominated so much of game at Arsenal and very unlucky. Potter seems to have changed plan and now looking to grab a 1.0 This way of playing has just gained Palace 3 wins.
Mancgull
Well-known member
Confident that 38 points with our better goal difference will do it.
Worried Man Blues
Well-known member
Do you change your predictions on a weekly basis or are the set from the start of the season?
brighton_tom
Well-known member
- Jul 23, 2008
- 5,514
Its a lot of ifs and maybes, but this is how im looking at it...
From the last 5 games West ham, Bournemouth, Watford, Villa, and us have all managed 4 points. We all with the exception of Villa have 9 games to go. With that form it suggests we will all get around 8 more points this season... Lets say they all over achieve & actually get 10 points, except Villa who with their extra games get 12 more points. Thats means 38 points keeps us up...
So... 2 wins & 3 draws from our remaining 9 fixtures to be safe. I think we'll see a surprise win against someone like Arsenal or Man United, and a win against an already safe Southampton/Newcastle/Burnley...
From the last 5 games West ham, Bournemouth, Watford, Villa, and us have all managed 4 points. We all with the exception of Villa have 9 games to go. With that form it suggests we will all get around 8 more points this season... Lets say they all over achieve & actually get 10 points, except Villa who with their extra games get 12 more points. Thats means 38 points keeps us up...
So... 2 wins & 3 draws from our remaining 9 fixtures to be safe. I think we'll see a surprise win against someone like Arsenal or Man United, and a win against an already safe Southampton/Newcastle/Burnley...
Se20
Banned
- Oct 3, 2012
- 3,981
Still think it’s 40 points.
9 games left, lots of twists and turns to come yet.
Big games next week, you at home to Arsenal, us at Muff, West Ham at home to wolves, Watford home to Leicester, and Norwi vs Southampton.
I can see wins for West Ham, Watford, and Norwich, and draws for you and Muff.
I’m glad we’re virtually safe.
9 games left, lots of twists and turns to come yet.
Big games next week, you at home to Arsenal, us at Muff, West Ham at home to wolves, Watford home to Leicester, and Norwi vs Southampton.
I can see wins for West Ham, Watford, and Norwich, and draws for you and Muff.
I’m glad we’re virtually safe.
blockhseagull
Well-known member
Can’t see it being 40 myself.
3 clubs have 27 points from 29 and your suggesting they are suddenly going to achieve 12 from 9 games. One might, but not 3.
36 points will do it with our GD I think.
The bottom side that is most likely to win next week is Bournemouth I think.
Jolly Red Giant
Well-known member
- Jul 11, 2015
- 2,615
There are currently 9 teams at the top of the table vying for European football next season - if you take the bottom six and look at who they are playing out of these 9 teams then you get the following
Brighton are playing 5
Bournemouth are playing 5
Villa are playing 6 from 10
West Ham are playing 4
Watford are playing 4
Norwich are playing 3
If you look who are playing other bottom 6 teams
Brighton are playing 1
Bournemouth are playing 0
Villa are playing 1
West Ham are playing 3
Watford are playing 2
Norwich are playing 3
Remember - there are 8 points between Norwich and Brighton and only 4 points between the bottom five - Brighton, Bournemouth and Villa have the most difficult run in but Brighton do have the goal difference advantage.
38 points could well be enough - getting to 38 points is not going to be easy in any way, shape of form. Brighton do look good enough to stay up - but looking good and being good are two different things - the lack of goals is going to be a killer in the run in.
Se20
Banned
- Oct 3, 2012
- 3,981
Well I hope you’re wrong for your sakes !
I only started it when I thought we were in the shit, so about 3 weeks ago.
I change it as I go (if I feel a team is showing or losing form), so that should help. But in these 3 weeks I still can't do much better than 36% correct
More a 'what if' than a predictor ... more confident in 36 (35 maybe) points being safe than the individual results
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HastingsSeagull
Well-known member
I know we always say 40 but I think 37 with great gd might be enough this year.
Well I for one am glad you won this week.
I also hope you win next week.
Right...I’m off to ‘wash my mouth out son.....and go get my fathers gun’.
I need a shower, I feel dirty. The same dirty as I feel when I want Man Utd to win against the teams round us
Machiavelli
Well-known member
I only started it when I thought we were in the shit, so about 3 weeks ago.
I change it as I go (if I feel a team is showing or losing form), so that should help. But in these 3 weeks I still can't do much better than 36% correct
More a 'what if' than a predictor ... more confident in 36 (35 maybe) points being safe than the individual results
That 36% figure means you're deteriorating. That said, I won't encourage you to give up. I also agree with you about the point total thing. I still think Norwich are down, that West Ham and Watford are playing well (and have better run-ins) and are the favourites to escape. That leaves us, Muff and Villa, and we've all got horrendous run-ins. That means that we are the most likely of those three to avoid relegation. We'll need to start scoring goals sharp-ish though.
Good analysis.
The 40 point target is lazy rounding. 1 point per game, so 38.
With 9 games left, and 3 teams on 27, then 36 wouldn't be unreasonable. Add 1 for (bad) luck = 37.
8 more. A win v Arsenal would most welcome. We'll win in 2020 soon, right ?
Jolly Red Giant
Well-known member
- Jul 11, 2015
- 2,615
Villa have two big advantages at the moment - they have Grealish - and they are scoring goals. The only game that they haven't scored in since the beginning of the year was against Southampton two weeks ago - and they put in a decent shift against Man City in the League Cup Final last week. Over the next four games that have Leicester away, Chelsea at home, Newcastle away and Wolves at home - and I see potential for them to get something out of each of these games. I wouldn't be surprised if they were level with Brighton in three weeks.
BN41Albion
Well-known member
- Oct 1, 2017
- 6,827
You conveniently didn't mention that villa are also conceding a lot of goals. Average of 2 per game. And they've lost their last 4 games, so are hardly full of confidence at the moment, especially with the horrid run they have coming up...
Weststander
Well-known member
I agree about Watford and West Ham, both playing well in most games, quality midfields, recent wins. West Ham’s big money spent over the last couple of years paying off to a miserable extent in saving them from the drop.
So Villa, Bmuff and us vying to avoid two places.
All three can’t keep failing to win forever. A couple of morale boosting wins soon for any of us, could prove critical, and be a hammer blow for relegation rivals. Even just a win for us against Arsenal will give us 32 points with a superior GD.
Such fine margins. A home loss against Arsenal not good.
I thought it was all over for us after defeat to palace, and wins for West Ham and Watford last week.
But our glorious point yesterday and defeats all around us has given us a better lifeline.
We can't keep not winning in 2020. Every match the win gets closer. It just does. The football gods could bestow us that win against Arsenal. I'm hopeful.
Weststander
Well-known member
I have some hope for the Arsenal game. Not based on past good results against them particularly, but they’re not playing brilliantly, West Ham were unlucky yesterday, fans on Arsenal players backs. We need our defensive discipline from Molyneux and some goals at long last.
Ecosse Exile
New member
I keep seeing people saying West Ham and Watford are playing well. Well were not actually playing badly ourselves, we played well and deserved our draws away at both Sheff Utd and Wolves (both of whom have been better than Arsenal all season) and with better finishing could and should have beaten Palace last week. Or maybe its only other teams that are allowed to be unlucky.
We played both West Ham and Watford recently too, neither struck me as better teams than us. Maybe keep the faith, we might not be winning games at the moment but we're not getting turned over too often either. The win will come, possibly as soon as next week, then the pressure is on the others and the monkey is off our backs.
We played both West Ham and Watford recently too, neither struck me as better teams than us. Maybe keep the faith, we might not be winning games at the moment but we're not getting turned over too often either. The win will come, possibly as soon as next week, then the pressure is on the others and the monkey is off our backs.