[Albion] Points to be safe this season

[Weststander]

Watford, playing well, have Stains, Norwich and Newcastle at home in April. They’re staying up.

Predicted table:

Watford 40
Newcastle 39
West Ham 36
Bmuff 34
Brighton 33
Villa 29
Norwich - down .... didn’t bother to calculate.

A draw against Arsenal and a win against Newcastle where I see our results coming from. Which would be thrown up in the air by a magnificent three points against Arsenal.

 

[Weststander]

I keep seeing people saying West Ham and Watford are playing well. Well were not actually playing badly ourselves, we played well and deserved our draws away at both Sheff Utd and Wolves (both of whom have been better than Arsenal all season) and with better finishing could and should have beaten Palace last week. Or maybe its only other teams that are allowed to be unlucky.

We played both West Ham and Watford recently too, neither struck me as better teams than us. Maybe keep the faith, we might not be winning games at the moment but we're not getting turned over too often either. The win will come, possibly as soon as next week, then the pressure is on the others and the monkey is off our backs.

I think it’s because they’ve also had wins in 2020, we haven’t and they’re scoring, we don’t:

West Ham - beating Stains and Bmuff. 3-1 and 4-0
Watford - beating Wolves, Bmuff and Liverpool. 2-1, 3-0 and 3-0.

 

[Ecosse Exile]

I think it’s because they’ve also had wins in 2020, we haven’t and they’re scoring, we don’t:

West Ham - beating Stains and Bmuff. 3-1 and 4-0
Watford - beating Wolves, Bmuff and Liverpool. 2-1, 3-0 and 3-0.

Yes we need a win badly, yes everyone else has won this year but last 5 games West Ham have won 1 drawn 1 and lost 3, Watford exactly the same, not that impressive. While we have drawn 4 and lost 1, not that impressive either, but as things stand we are still above both of them, if all three clubs form remains the same we will stay above them too.

 

[Weststander]

Yes we need a win badly, yes everyone else has won this year but last 5 games West Ham have won 1 drawn 1 and lost 3, Watford exactly the same, not that impressive. While we have drawn 4 and lost 1, not that impressive either, but as things stand we are still above both of them, if all three clubs form remains the same we will stay above them too.

My gut feeling is that it’s a 50:50 call whether we stay up. I know we have a very helpful points and GD advantage, but we can’t buy a goal. A series of draw and losses will send us down. My positive, blue-tinted side says shirley we’ll win soon ... not based on anything rational at all ... just that things must turn. I admire the supreme confidence of half of NSC that we’re notably better than Villa, Bmuff and West Ham, and will definitely stay up. I haven’t got a clue, I can’t see how anyone can be 95% certain that we’re going down or staying up.

 

[Ecosse Exile]

My gut feeling is that it’s a 50:50 call whether we stay up. I know we have a very helpful points and GD advantage, but we can’t buy a goal. A series of draw and losses will send us down. My positive, blue-tinted side says shirley we’ll win soon ... not based on anything rational at all ... just that things must turn. I admire the supreme confidence of half of NSC that we’re notably better than Villa, Bmuff and West Ham, and will definitely stay up. I haven’t got a clue, I can’t see how anyone can be 95% certain that we’re going down or staying up.

Mate, i'm exactly the same, this time last week as far as i was concerned we were ****ed, but as you say we have to win sooner or later and it really wouldn't surprise me if that is one or both of the next two games, it's always been the Brighton way.

The others despite improved performances are not really getting the results either, so we are just as likely to pick up the required points as any of them. Added to that, there are 5 teams still below us, 3 have to improve enough to go above us, yes they could do it in the very next games, but none will if we get another draw at least. We are atleast being hard to beat, that's a good starting point, the win WILL come.

 

[Weststander]

Mate, i'm exactly the same, this time last week as far as i was concerned we were ****ed, but as you say we have to win sooner or later and it really wouldn't surprise me if that is one or both of the next two games, it's always been the Brighton way.

The others despite improved performances are not really getting the results either, so we are just as likely to pick up the required points as any of them. Added to that, there are 5 teams still below us, 3 have to improve enough to go above us, yes they could do it in the very next games, but none will if we get another draw at least. We are atleast being hard to beat, that's a good starting point, the win WILL come.

A win against Arsenal, not just the three points, but a huge morale boost for all, would alter my view hugely.

 

[zefarelly]

Same as last season, I'm in the 'don't care' camp as we're probably going down.

As with last year, we have failed to,take our chances and are digging our own pit.

Bottom line for me is we don't have a quality striker. We knew that, 3 years ago.

What will be will be. I'll be quite happy with Champions-ish league . . . Let's face it, it was more exciting that PL, on average, and a lot less,' shit the bed' than relegation from the 4th division or ' league 2'





And I really really hope we scrape to safety!

 

[Gurru991]

Predicted table:

Watford 40
Newcastle 39
West Ham 36
Bmuff 34
Brighton 33
Villa 29
Norwich - down .... didn’t bother to calculate.

I really don't see it that way. I have Brighton staying up and Bournemouth going down.

 

[Jolly Red Giant]

You conveniently didn't mention that villa are also conceding a lot of goals. Average of 2 per game. And they've lost their last 4 games, so are hardly full of confidence at the moment, especially with the horrid run they have coming up...

True - but when you have Grealish and you are scoring you always have a chance of winning a game. I think they can win one, if not two, of their next four games.

 

[Jolly Red Giant]

I keep seeing people saying West Ham and Watford are playing well. Well were not actually playing badly ourselves, we played well and deserved our draws away at both Sheff Utd and Wolves (both of whom have been better than Arsenal all season) and with better finishing could and should have beaten Palace last week. Or maybe its only other teams that are allowed to be unlucky.

The result against SU as good - but Wolves were off form yesterday - and yes, Brighton should have beaten Palace, but didn't.

We played both West Ham and Watford recently too, neither struck me as better teams than us. Maybe keep the faith, we might not be winning games at the moment but we're not getting turned over too often either. The win will come, possibly as soon as next week, then the pressure is on the others and the monkey is off our backs.

The comeback against West Ham was very good - and that fighting spirit is what is needed. Unfortunately, it has been a little hit and miss in recent weeks.

And yes - Brighton will eventually win a game - however there is little evidence that the streak of 9 games without a win will be broken anytime soon. The fortunate thing is that there have been six draws in the last nine games which means six points have been picked up - the unfortunate thing is that the haul might need to be better over the next nine games to keep out of the relegation zone. I said it earlier that the Norwich game could be key - a win there is pretty much vital.

 

[CPFC G]

I reckon the bottom 3 at present will go.
Norwich have given it a good go but don't have the quality. Villa only have Grealish and Bmuff are the worst team I have seen at Selhurst this season.

Watford and West ham have enough match winners to be safe and you guys have the ability to grind out draws and get the odd win.

I reckon we will do you a favour this weekend a beat Bmuff by the odd goal.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Watford, playing well, have Stains, Norwich and Newcastle at home in April. They’re staying up.

Predicted table:

Watford 40
Newcastle 39
West Ham 36
Bmuff 34
Brighton 33
Villa 29
Norwich - down .... didn’t bother to calculate.

A draw against Arsenal and a win against Newcastle where I see our results coming from. Which would be thrown up in the air by a magnificent three points against Arsenal.

This is incredibly pessimistic. Even in our poor run in 2020 so far, we've picked up 6 pts from the last 9 games.

I'm going to get positive:
1. Southampton and Norwich are bottom of the home games table. Saints have lost 9 at home, Norwich 7. Given very positive away performances to Sheff Utd and Wolves, I think we go there thinking 2 points minimum a real possibility.
2. Liverpool will have won the title when they come to us, are no longer invincible, but will be still in the Champions League where their focus will be, as will Man City who will be unchallenged in 2nd.
3. Burnley may well be on their holidays when we visit after a great season for them. Last year once safety was confirmed, they lost their last 3 after winning 3 of the previous 4. the 2 seasons before that they lost their last 2 after confirming safety both seasons. They've lost at least their last 2 games in each of their recent PL seasons.

We'll get 8 points min, I think we'll win a home and away game before the end, and likely pick up 3 draws or so. 36 will be safe I imagine, confident we'll get that even with 1 win and 4 draws out of 9 games.

 

[Weststander]

This is incredibly pessimistic. Even in our poor run in 2020 so far, we've picked up 6 pts from the last 9 games.

I'm going to get positive:
1. Southampton and Norwich are bottom of the home games table. Saints have lost 9 at home, Norwich 7. Given very positive away performances to Sheff Utd and Wolves, I think we go there thinking 2 points minimum a real possibility.
2. Liverpool will have won the title when they come to us, are no longer invincible, but will be still in the Champions League where their focus will be, as will Man City who will be unchallenged in 2nd.
3. Burnley may well be on their holidays when we visit after a great season for them. Last year once safety was confirmed, they lost their last 3 after winning 3 of the previous 4. the 2 seasons before that they lost their last 2 after confirming safety both seasons. They've lost at least their last 2 games in each of their recent PL seasons.

We'll get 8 points min, I think we'll win a home and away game before the end, and likely pick up 3 draws or so. 36 will be safe I imagine, confident we'll get that even with 1 win and 4 draws out of 9 games.

I hope you're correct.

My own workings came up with a very similar result to [MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION]'s last post. I based it on probable results each game, including our recent lack of goals, plus Norwich seem to have a Carrow Road curse over us.

A win against Arsenal will happily scupper my assessment.

It's all guesswork by all of us.

 

[Bold Seagull]

I think it’s because they’ve also had wins in 2020, we haven’t and they’re scoring, we don’t:

West Ham - beating Stains and Bmuff. 3-1 and 4-0
Watford - beating Wolves, Bmuff and Liverpool. 2-1, 3-0 and 3-0.

Last 9 games:
Aston Villa pts10 F10 A19
Norwich pts8 F4 A12
Bournemouth pts7 F9 A19
Brighton pts6 F8 A12
West Ham pts5 F10 A18

When all said and done, we have 1 point more than West Ham over the same period. Norwich have managed to score more points than us, B'muff and West Ham scoring just 4 goals.

Arguably while we all obsess over goals, it is the goals against column that may have more relevance because none of us are coping well with conceding a goal. While only a point, the Wolves clean sheet was a massive result going forwards.

 

[Eric Youngs Contact Lense]

Its funny how we all look at other sides and see the "positives" in their performances! I just assume they must be looking at us and seeing the same too? We have been away to Wolves, Sheffield United, come away with clean sheets and a couple of points. The others must have been expecting us to capitulate. They will also say that whilst "Brighton have struggled to score goals and get a win, that has to change some time?" We can look all we want, I would much rather be in our shoes than any of the others below us right now. It will be close, and of course we could go down, but no reason for us to be any more pessimistic than anyone else.. We have shown grit, are hard to beat and are creating chances We have very few injuries right now and a depth that says we will not be totally screwed - every team, has a player they don't want to lose, Dunk is ours (suspension looming) but others will theirs too.

 

[Napper]

reckon we need 3 wins and that will scrape it.

I still think we will go down as it stands.

A shock on saturday would change everything though

 

[peterward]

Predicted table:

Watford 40
Newcastle 39
West Ham 36
Bmuff 34
Brighton 33
Villa 29
Norwich - down .... didn’t bother to calculate.

I really don't see it that way. I have Brighton staying up and Bournemouth going down.

We'll get more than 4 points.

 

[Weststander]

Last 9 games:
Aston Villa pts10 F10 A19
Norwich pts8 F4 A12
Bournemouth pts7 F9 A19
Brighton pts6 F8 A12
West Ham pts5 F10 A18

When all said and done, we have 1 point more than West Ham over the same period. Norwich have managed to score more points than us, B'muff and West Ham scoring just 4 goals.

Arguably while we all obsess over goals, it is the goals against column that may have more relevance because none of us are coping well with conceding a goal. While only a point, the Wolves clean sheet was a massive result going forwards.

We can all arbitrarily pick a form period.

If you don’t mind, what’s that look like for calendar year 2020 results, including Watford? Please.

 

[Dirty Dave]

We'll get more than 4 points.

Agree, as will Villa (from 11 games)

Sent from my SM-A405FN using Tapatalk

 

[Weststander]

Its funny how we all look at other sides and see the "positives" in their performances! I just assume they must be looking at us and seeing the same too? We have been away to Wolves, Sheffield United, come away with clean sheets and a couple of points. The others must have been expecting us to capitulate. They will also say that whilst "Brighton have struggled to score goals and get a win, that has to change some time?" We can look all we want, I would much rather be in our shoes than any of the others below us right now. It will be close, and of course we could go down, but no reason for us to be any more pessimistic than anyone else.. We have shown grit, are hard to beat and are creating chances We have very few injuries right now and a depth that says we will not be totally screwed - every team, has a player they don't want to lose, Dunk is ours (suspension looming) but others will theirs too.

Very true, that’s the defence sorted. Helped imho by Potter titting around less in team selection in defence.

Now onto the goal scoring ‘department’: