Points needed for 2nd

[Thunder Bolt]

"Points needed for 2nd"
No, we'd like to need as few as possible. Have a coffee TB, you're still half asleep.

You're right. The kettle is on.

 

[Triggaaar]

You're right. The kettle is on.

I appreciate you being so forgiving for my rudeness. I'm going to get a cup of tea to calm the nerves.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

The number of points we need is......
Exactly enough to satisfy two of the following conditions:

5 more than Burnley get
Exactly the same as Boro get
4 less than Hull get

With the relative run ins, I can't see this being resolved before the last game.
I still think Hull have the best chance of making it.

 

[Triggaaar]

I still think Hull have the best chance of making it.

Wow! They've got a good run-in (my opinion, others may vary - well, one other), but they're 9 points behind Burnley and haven't won in the last 5 games. You can get 12-1 on Hull taking the title.

 

[Mancgull]

I think 86 will do it although it may also necessitate not losing at Boro as well. I honestly don't think that any game in this division is easy.... Therefore Hull's comparatively 'easy' run in isn't overly relevant. We could be playing Derby at a point where they are either guaranteed a play off place and have little to play for or they could need to win for automatics or a play off place. Games against the likes of Fulham could be very difficult if they are fighting against relegation. Who would want to be playing Rotherham at the moment? Take one game at a time, knowing that if you win all your games you will go up and the worse we can do is get into the play offs which I expect was our objective this season. Far less pressure on us than Hull, Middlesborough and Derby who have huge wage bills and desperately need promotion. I'm sure that a lot of Burnleys success has come from Dyche's ability to take the pressure off his players.

 

[JonnyComeEarly]

How can anyone still say Hull have the easiest run in?

When you consider the little noddy teams in the bottom half of the table keep plucking away with beating the top 6....

Hull's run in is exactly the same as our - a cup final in each one and no chance of an easy game/easy win

 

[LlcoolJ]

How can anyone still say Hull have the easiest run in?

When you consider the little noddy teams in the bottom half of the table keep plucking away with beating the top 6....

Hull's run in is exactly the same as our - a cup final in each one and no chance of an easy game/easy win

"Little noddy teams" LOL.

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

The number of points we need is......
Exactly enough to satisfy two of the following conditions:

5 more than Burnley get
Exactly the same as Boro get
4 less than Hull get

I like this way of thinking about it. As we know, we're coming off the turn and it's now a dash to the line. Think we have enough in the tank to keep up two points a game, but patently the Boro and Burnley games will be huge. V. excited.

 

[Goldstone1976]

The number of points we need is......
Exactly enough to satisfy two of the following conditions:

5 more than Burnley get
Exactly the same as Boro get
4 less than Hull get

With the relative run ins, I can't see this being resolved before the last game.
I still think Hull have the best chance of making it.

That's an interesting way of looking at it. Using your way, I think we have a decent chance, believing that we can do points 2 and 3, but not very likely of doing point 1. However, when I look at the table, I'm very nervous - thinking that the most likely place we'll finish is third. Weird, isn't it?

 

[Uh_huh_him]

Wow! They've got a good run-in (my opinion, others may vary - well, one other), but they're 9 points behind Burnley and haven't won in the last 5 games. You can get 12-1 on Hull taking the title.

Just my opinion.. but not having to play any of the other 3 whilst all of the other 3 play each other, gives them an advantage. i.e. knowing points are definitely going to be dropped as opposed to, might be dropped.
If those 3 games were all to be draws, that's a potential to make up 4 points on all 3 teams.

Plus their last 4 games are as easy a run in as you could wish for, IMHO.

 

[Triggaaar]

As we know, we're coming off the turn and it's now a dash to the line.

I agree, although I'd say it's been a long race, not a sprint, and we've just heard the bell.

 

[rool]

I agree, although I'd say it's been a long race, not a sprint, and we've just heard the bell.

We are on the shoulder of the leader with 'blue eyes, like chips of ice'.

 

[Garry Nelson's Left Foot]

Urgh, if we don't make it, but thrash Derby (or Burnley/Boro I suppose) and then face them in the playoffs, then it could have the same effect that thrashing palace had three years ago

We lost to Palace not because they were hell bent on revenge for getting dicked on Paddy's day but because we were far, far too cautious. It was clear to see that Palace were very nervous in the opening twenty minutes or so, fearing that we'd come out all guns blazing and tear them a new one like we had three months earlier. As the first half progressed and the onslaught never came they grew and grew in confidence.

If we'd gone at them from the start we would have beaten them. Instead we let them into the game and it all went very, very pear shaped.

 

[nicko31]

Before the Cardiff game I reckoned 87 and sticking with that, reckon we're still 3 pts off the pace.

 

[Jim D]

I did this a few weeks ago after 34 games but I’ve now updated to 38 games for the same years and showing points achieved…..

Looking back at league tables from the last 20 or so years and selecting positions from these years where there were 4 teams with 60+ points (but nobody over 75) after 38 games. In fact last season is a good example….
After 38 the top 4 were….
Watford 72
Boro 72
B’mth 70
Norw 67

And at the end we had…
B’mth on 90 (20 points from 8 games)
Watford 89 (17)
Norwich 86 (19)
Boro 83 (11)

Taking another season (06-07) on 38 games we had…
Brum 70 (from 37)
Derby 70
S’land 67
PNE 65 (37)
At the end we had…
Sunderland 88 (21 points from 8 games)
Brum 86 (16 from 9)
Derby 84 (14)
WBA 76 (13)
(PNE 7th on 74 – 9pts from 9 games)

And in the 11-12 season after 38 games….
Saints 75
Reading 70
WHU 68 (from 37)
BHA 61
At the end…..
Reading 89 (19 points from 8 games)
Saints 88 (13)
WHU 86 (18 from 9)
Brum 76 (17 from 9)
(BHA 10th on 66 - 5pts from 8)

I think the point to take here is that when the table is very close the teams involved don’t play with the freedom and confidence that they may have done beforehand. Points are much more difficult to come by and upsets are more common that if a team already has a big lead. In all 3 of these seasons 90 points would have won promotion and usually the title. Also, the teams that won the title had a very good run but that wasn’t matched by the others. Of the teams finishing below 1st (10 of them listed) only 3 managed 2pts per game or better (and all were promoted).

 

[halbpro]

Points for first?..Beat Burnley and that's what will be talked about

Beat Burnley and I think they'll be on for 89.

 

[kevo]

Just did the promotion calculator and it came out with the top two (Burnley and us) on 89 and Boro third on 86. So 87 might be enough, and 89 should be....

 

[Triggaaar]

And at the end we had…
B’mth on 90 (20 points from 8 games)
Watford 89 (17)
Norwich 86 (19)
*************
At the end we had…
Sunderland 88 (21 points from 8 games)
Brum 86 (16 from 9)
Derby 84 (14)
*************
At the end…..
Reading 89 (19 points from 8 games)
Saints 88 (13)
WHU 86 (18 from 9)
Brum 76 (17 from 9)

Interesting stuff. Each year 3 teams getting very close to 2 points per game. 2 points per game for our pack gives:
Burnley = 91
'boro = 88
Brighton = 87
Hull = 84

If 3 of the 4 of us are going to get about 2 points per game, then we're going to need to be one of them, and even then we might not make it.

Of the teams finishing below 1st (10 of them listed) only 3 managed 2pts per game or better (and all were promoted).

2 of those 3 were had to rely on the playoffs, so not particularly reassuring.

4 wins and 4 draws gives us 16 points (2 per game).
5 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats gives the same, 5 wins 2 draws giving 17 points.
6 wins, 2 defeats giving 18 points.

We'd be pretty unlucky to miss out with 6 wins, but that's a tall order.
5 wins and it's going to be very close.

 

[Jim D]

Interesting stuff. Each year 3 teams getting very close to 2 points per game. 2 points per game for our pack gives:
Burnley = 91
'boro = 88
Brighton = 87
Hull = 84

If 3 of the 4 of us are going to get about 2 points per game, then we're going to need to be one of them, and even then we might not make it.

The point I was trying to make is that in each of the seasons there was one team that did a lot better than 2pts per game - and won the league. Looking further at these (from the 34 game mark) these three were picking up lots of points well before. In the last 12 games of the season Bournemouth picked up 30 points, Sunderland 28 and Reading 26. For that reason I would say only ourselves and Burnley fit that picture - possibly Boro if they keep winning and turn defeats into draws. Hull will find it difficult to raise their performances sufficiently. I'd say it was between the current top 3 for the two auto places.

 

[kevo]

We'd be pretty unlucky to miss out with 6 wins, but that's a tall order.
5 wins and it's going to be very close.

That was my conclusion too - six wins and we'd surely make it, five wins touch-and-go...