Points needed for 2nd

[Turkey]

No it's not wrong, just something that got debated over at great, dare I say 'NSC debate' length.

Here's a summary:
I don't think there is a definitive answer. The problem is adding BHA into a season that already had 24 teams on their respective points. So if you add us (and make it 25 teams) a point above 3rd, we're still not as high as 2nd. Say 1 year 1st got 95 points, 2nd got 94 points, and 3rd got 72 points - would we really only have needed 73 points? If we had been one of those top two teams, yes, but whose to say we would have been. Or maybe we'd have needed 94 points + better GD. So a few of us thought the best guess was an average of 2nd and 3rd places to get the average amount of points a team will need to finish 2nd.

Ah okay, I see where you're coming from. Well here is how 2nd to 3rd compare, apologies for the poor formatting, not sure how to make it easy to read:


2015 Watford 89 Norwich 86
2014 Burnley 93 Derby 85
2013 Hull 79 Watford 77
2012 Southampton 88 West Ham 86
2011 Norwich 84 Swansea 80
2010 West Brom 91 Nottm Forest 79
2009 Birmingham 83 Sheff Utd 80
2008 Stoke 79 Hull 75
2007 Birmingham 86 Derby 84
2006 Sheff Utd 90 Watford 81
2005 Wigan 87 Ipswich 85
2004 West Brom 86 Sunderland 79
2003 Leicester 92 Sheff Utd 80
2002 West Brom 89 Wolves 86
2001 Blackburn 91 Bolton 87
2000 Man City 89 Ipswich 87
1999 Bradford City 87 Ipswich 86
1998 Middlesbrough 91 Sunderland 90
1997 Barnsley 80 Wolves 76
1996 Derby 79 Crystal Palace 75
1995 Reading 79 Bolton 77
1994 Nottm Forest 83 Millwall 74
1993 West Ham 88 Portsmouth 88
1992 Middlesbrough 80 Derby 78
1991 West Ham 87 Sheff Wed 82
1990 Sheff Utd 85 Newcastle 80
1989 Man City 82 Crystal Palace 81

Also the list of teams finishing 2nd ranked Highest-Lowest in points:

2014 Burnley 93
2003 Leicester 92
2010 West Brom 91
2001 Blackburn 91
1998 Middlesbrough 91
2006 Sheff Utd 90
2015 Watford 89
2002 West Brom 89
2000 Man City 89
2012 Southampton 88
1993 West Ham 88
2005 Wigan 87
1999 Bradford City 87
1991 West Ham 87
2007 Birmingham 86
2004 West Brom 86
1990 Sheff Utd 85
2011 Norwich 84
2009 Birmingham 83
1994 Nottm Forest 83
1989 Man City 82
1997 Barnsley 80
1992 Middlesbrough 80
2013 Hull 79
2008 Stoke 79
1996 Derby 79
1995 Reading 79

 

[OzMike]

The average of all those second placed teams is 85.82, so, 86 points it is then !

 

[darkwolf666]

The average of all those second placed teams is 85.82, so, 86 points it is then !

Or taking the median it will be 87 points. The mode is more favourable at 79.

See averages don't work either - game by game is the answer.

Actually, thinking about it, and it has probably been said in one of the previous 82 posts, but the correct answer is one point more than third (taking into account our current goal difference).

 

[Triggaaar]

The average of all those second placed teams is 85.82

85.81. Are we going to do this properly or what?

So Average for 2nd = 85.8, for 3rd = 81.3
Average of 2nd and 3rd (ie, what a team will generally need to finish 2nd) = 83.5

Unfortunately we're likely to need a bit more this year.

 

[Jim D]

Comparing with previous seasons with similar points positions I would say second place will need between 84 and 91 points, so the mid point is 87.5. If there are any spread betting experts out there which side would you be on?

 

[sparkie]

As of today I think we'll need 89 points ( 6 wins ).

This will go up or down as the matches happen, hopefully going down if QPR do us a favour vs Middlesbrough next week.

 

[Albion my Albion]

Theoretically the Burnley game doesn't matter - they are very likely to finish top, and we can still get the required five or six victories, even if we lose to them. However, psychologically it could be very important. It'll be fascinating to see how we each approach that game....I rather think Burnley will be desperate not to lose. Could be a cagey 0-0....

Just keep repeating:




A nice lesson on why athletes should not start singing careers for the reason that they have acquired some fame.

 

[OzMike]

85.81. Are we going to do this properly or what?.

I have taken it to two decimal places, the figure was actually 85.817....plus other numbers.
So, taking to two decimal places, because the third decimal place is more than 5 the second decimal place will be one more and hence 2
Therefore, to two decimal places it is 85.82

 

[darkwolf666]

I have taken it to two decimal places, the figure was actually 85.817....plus other numbers.
So, taking to two decimal places, because the third decimal place is more than 5 the second decimal place will be one more and hence 2
Therefore, to two decimal places it is 85.82

Yeh, but Triggaaar isn't self described as the resident pedant for nothing!

 

[Triggaaar]

I have taken it to two decimal places, the figure was actually 85.817....plus other numbers.

I don't think it was, I've got 85.81481481, otherwise we'd be in agreement.

Yeh, but Triggaaar isn't self described as the resident pedant for nothing!

Obviously if he was right with 85.817, he'd be right with 85.82. but I think he's made a mistake with his first number. I only think that because I've got a spreadsheet in front of me with the number, and it's unlikely to be wrong.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Don't mess with Triggaaar on matters of accuracy!

 

[Triggaaar]

Don't mess with Triggaaar on matters of accuracy!

Ooo. It kind of looks like a complement, but we all really know it just means I'm a sad tw@

 

[Bold Seagull]

Ooo. It kind of looks like a complement, but we all really know it just means I'm a sad tw@

Of course it's a compliment!!

 

[BensGrandad]

Getting a bit nervy about Saturday and firmly believe a win will be the start of us winning the league, a draw keeps our possibility of 2nd place going but a defeat would leave us with the playoff lottery.

 

[Triggaaar]

Getting a bit nervy about Saturday and firmly believe a win will be the start of us winning the league, a draw keeps our possibility of 2nd place going but a defeat would leave us with the playoff lottery.

Saturday's game certainly feels massive, but most of us have been guilty of putting too much emphasis on single games, and perhaps you are there.

 

[dazzer6666]

Saturday's game certainly feels massive, but most of us have been guilty of putting too much emphasis on single games, and perhaps you are there.

Completely.......a few weeks ago we had 'no chance of catching Boro'.....plenty of twists and turns left yet.

 

[Saturn]

Once we've dusted off Burnley on Saturday can the title of this thread be amended to "Points needed for 2nd"?

 

[Triggaaar]

Once we've dusted off Burnley on Saturday can the title of this thread be amended to "Points needed for 2nd"?

 

[aolstudios]

Once we've dusted off Burnley on Saturday can the title of this thread be amended to "Points needed for 2nd"?

Did you mean 'points needed for 1st'?..

 

[Megazone]

Have we guaranteed the play-off's yet?