Play-off points needed.... statistically.... historically!

[Silent Bob]

My point is that we have to improve our results, if we are going to make the play-offs. Recent results are encouraging, but we might easily suffer from the dip in form we went through before Christmas. Look at the table for games played in December - we were 23rd.

Fair enough, there's no disputing that in all probability we need to do better than our season average so far.

But there's not that much between us and the other playoff sides that they can expect to coast into the playoffs. Also, if we do get to 76 points we will probably have to have got some positive results against the six of the top eight we have still to play. So I think that probably would be enough to make the playoffs.

 

[jevs]

What a load of bollox. You need one more point than the team in 7th place to get into the play-offs. A simiular thread was started on a WHU forum and i said the same, we need one more point than the team in 3rd place to go up automatically.

Anything other than that is a waste of time speculating on.

 

[Uncle Buck]

What a load of bollox. You need one more point than the team in 7th place to get into the play-offs. A simiular thread was started on a WHU forum and i said the same, we need one more point than the team in 3rd place to go up automatically.

Anything other than that is a waste of time speculating on.

Absolutely correct.

Also this division is very odd in so much as everyone seems to be capable of turning each other over, hence so many teams are bunched together.

 

[CP 0 3 BHA]

If you take form over the past ten games and make an adjustment for those with games in hand, with 3 games to go for everyone the top will look like this:-

Plyd Pnts Last 10 Adj Proj at 43 games
Reading 32 57 24 26 83
WHU 32 61 18 20 81
=============================
Birmingham 32 54 21 23 77
Soton 33 62 15 15 77
Blackpool 33 55 20 20 75
Brighton 33 53 21 21 74
-------------------------------------
Cardiff 32 53 15 17 70
Hull 31 51 15 18 69
Boro 32 53 12 13 66

The most likely inaccuracy is that Cardiff will probably do better having got back to League business after the Carling. That will mean that its likely to be too close to call!

 

[Silent Bob]

What a load of bollox. You need one more point than the team in 7th place to get into the play-offs.

Yes, and by looking at history and form you can see how many it is likely to be.

 

[Acker79]

The worrying thing is that we have only averaged 1.13 points per game in matches against teams currently in the top half of the table. Eleven teams in the Championship have done better than that.

The encouraging thing is that we've averaged 2.10 points per game in the last 10 games, which includes games against Hull and Southampton

 

[Taybha]

I see it that its now pretty much certain we will not go down which is a very handy place to be considering its normaly a case of up one season down the next for us , saying that on the remaining games predictor i had us finishing on 73 points , wether thats enough to squeak a play off place i dont know but i would have taken that tally all day long at the start of this season .

 

[BensGrandad]

The old promotion formula wiil work then, that is win at home draw away, and we should at least make the play offs.

 

[Beach Hut]

I see it that its now pretty much certain we will not go down which is a very handy place to be considering its normaly a case of up one season down the next for us , saying that on the remaining games predictor i had us finishing on 73 points , wether thats enough to squeak a play off place i dont know but i would have taken that tally all day long at the start of this season .

If we are relegated we would need to lose every game from now on in and several clubs at the bottom would need a huge change in form.

 

[Perkino]

We are on the same number of points as Cardiff in 6th, and a few games ago we were 4points from the playoffs. If we carry on our form of 2012 we will be comfortably in the playoffs

 

[chucky1973]

Doesn't worry me just happy we are in this position as my only expectation this season was to stay in the division.

totally agree, if at the start of the season someone had said we were in 7th place with 13 games to go and discussing the playoffs, I would have bitten there hand off.

 

[Poyetry In Motion]

Well I make the final table based on average points so far this:

West Ham 87
Southampton 86
-------------------
Reading 81
Birmingham 77
Blackpool 76
Cardiff 76
-------------------
Middlesbrough 75
Hull 75
Brighton 73



Maybe I shouldhave rounded up...

Interesting table...I think most of us would take 9th place at the end of the season. I certainly would be delighted at a top 10 finish and the genuine prospect of a full on play off challenge next year.

 

[Max Paper]

I've got a horrible feeling we're going to do it.

Ha go on, explain the thought process here?

 

[Max Paper]

I absolutely love the Championship. I really look forward to every match. It's competitive, exciting and unpredictable. We play some amazing football that is a pleasure to watch and, if we're still in this division next season, we'll get better and better. I don't want to trade that in for a season of scrapping at the bottom of the EPL and quite possibly going down. I think that will knock our progress in the long term. If we go up next season or the season after we will do so in a much stronger position and with many of the foundations to compete in a higher division. These are the good times so let's keep them going for as long as possible. Let's thrash as many teams as possible. Let's have loads more matches like yesterday's. Let's make sure we have a season or two of absolutely LORDING it over Palace and beating them on the way. I'm not ready to see us lose week after week or having to write off 10 games a season because they're against clubs with individual players worth more than our entire squad.

Great post. I too love the championship and where we are right now. I try and tell myself that of course I want us to go up but agree entirely that we belong here, for the next season at least. Never thought I'd see the day when I didnt want us to get promoted (thing is I do want us to go up my head is so messed up, shoot me?)

 

[jackcgull]

i like to think of all fixtures as european-style two leg affairs... so far we have won 4 of those, lost 3 and had an extraordinary 3 draws. utterly irrelevant of course - but adds extra spice to games (in my head)

 

[Poyetry In Motion]

I absolutely love the Championship. I really look forward to every match. It's competitive, exciting and unpredictable. We play some amazing football that is a pleasure to watch and, if we're still in this division next season, we'll get better and better. I don't want to trade that in for a season of scrapping at the bottom of the EPL and quite possibly going down. I think that will knock our progress in the long term. If we go up next season or the season after we will do so in a much stronger position and with many of the foundations to compete in a higher division. These are the good times so let's keep them going for as long as possible. Let's thrash as many teams as possible. Let's have loads more matches like yesterday's. Let's make sure we have a season or two of absolutely LORDING it over Palace and beating them on the way. I'm not ready to see us lose week after week or having to write off 10 games a season because they're against clubs with individual players worth more than our entire squad.

Agreed. As much as I want Prem footy, I don't think my emotions could deal with games like last Sunday. We're not ready yet. I couldn't deal with seeing the club I love get potentially hammered week after week due to being out of our depth. Derby County / Bradford City anyone?
Lets have a season or 2 beating the crap out of Palarse first!

 

[Deleted User X18H]

76 minimum this season I reckon