Play-off points needed.... statistically.... historically!

[DarrenFreemansPerm]

I don't think we'd be a Derby or a Bradford because we would spend a lot of money. We may even stay up. But doing it that way (i.e. throwing loads of cash at it in one summer) is not the best long-term option.

I find you to be a most parculiar contributor to this forum. Sometimes you seem to want to slate people unnecessarily, then other times you post really good honest comments. Always an intriguing read

 

[Mutts Nuts]

When The Championship commenced in the 2004-2005 season, West Ham were in the last place (6th) with 73pts. Since then, the 6th spot was won with 75/75/70/74/70 and last year, Notts Forest earned 75pts for sixth position. That averages out roughly 73pts.

Now for crystal ball time. Albion are on 53 with 13 matches to come (7 at home). So theoretically we only need to average just a touch over 1.5pts a game to reach the magical 73pts or just to be on the safe side... 1.7pts to get to the highest ever number of points needed that clinched that last place i.e 75pts.

Piece of piss... easy peasy! Rock-on the Gus Bus!!!!!!!!

With our current squad an average of 2 points per game for the run in is achievable, we also have a few 6 pointers coming up they will be the important games,but Gus and Tony know this and have strengthened the squad to suit

 

[halbpro]

I absolutely love the Championship. I really look forward to every match. It's competitive, exciting and unpredictable. We play some amazing football that is a pleasure to watch and, if we're still in this division next season, we'll get better and better. I don't want to trade that in for a season of scrapping at the bottom of the EPL and quite possibly going down. I think that will knock our progress in the long term. If we go up next season or the season after we will do so in a much stronger position and with many of the foundations to compete in a higher division. These are the good times so let's keep them going for as long as possible. Let's thrash as many teams as possible. Let's have loads more matches like yesterday's. Let's make sure we have a season or two of absolutely LORDING it over Palace and beating them on the way. I'm not ready to see us lose week after week or having to write off 10 games a season because they're against clubs with individual players worth more than our entire squad.

Couldn't agree more. The uncertainty of the Championship is wonderful, going into a game with no idea of what the result will be. I mean us beating Ipswich 3-0? I wouldn't have called it, and I wouldn't have imagine Ipswich would hammer West Ham 5-1 (in fact it was so far from my mind that it lost me an accumulator). There's just so much drama here that doesn't seem to exist in the Premier League. Oh it's been a little better this season, and there have been a few surprising results, but in general the league feels very predictable. The Championship is just fun, and it'd be more interesting to stay here and build than take a hammering against Man Utd, Liverpool, Chelsea etc...

And sure, we've knocked two Premier League sides out of Cup competitions this year, but I don't think we could have that luck week in, week out in the league.

Of course that's not to say I'll moan if we go up, I just think that next season would be hard if we do.

 

[Arkwright]

Well last week I started the "Is Ipswich a must win game" as I really do think that a Play Off spot is achievable and was realiably informed that there is no such thing as a must win game.

Currently we are in a position of win at home and draw away as we have for the last few weeks and the Play Offs are in the bag.

Strong squad now with Premiership experience anything is achievable, I do agree with the West Ham fan one more point that 7th place is what we need to make the Play Offs, what ever that is we will be there or there about. I am convinced one team currently in the top six will have a wobble and we are good enough to take full advantage of this.

 

[Deleted member 2719]

If we missed the play offs, will Gus get the bullet....on no Dick is not now in charge anymore.

I think it will be tight but predict us to win all but boro at home and pick up two wins and a draw away. But i wouldn't put money on it.

 

[Deleted member 2719]

I find you to be a most parculiar contributor to this forum. Sometimes you seem to want to slate people unnecessarily, then other times you post really good honest comments. Always an intriguing read

It could be PMT.

 

[Cheshire Cat]

Would you prefer...
A winning (successful) season in the Championship?
A loosing (unsuccessful) season in the Premiership?

even if we spent an enormous sum of money we would get annihalated in the Premiership. Even if we did manage to stay up for a couple of seasons we would then probably pay for it later by decending in a Portsmouth style fiasco where we incurred massive debts but still failed to stay up. Or we end up like Wolves where no-one wanted to be manager because they all see the inevitable drop coming.

Personally I would prefer to be successful as high as we can be successful at - which at present is the Championship.

 

[Beach Seagull]

Lets just enjoy the ride and hope for the play off's followed by a day out at Wembley followed by promotion. Yes I agree as things stand we are not ready to go up but if we were to go up we would have a huge injection of cash into the club in terms of TV money, ST revenue and sponsorship, this would enable us to strengthen significantly. You can imagine Tony Bloom would be more than willing to spend alot of money on the playing staff if last pre season is anything to go by. Why should we not 'do a stoke' or a Norwich or a Swansea? I would say potentially we are bigger than all 3 of them and if they can go up and flourish why can't we??

 

[Marshy]

Im very optimistic, but I just cant see us making the play offs this season.

Be absolutely delighted to be proven worng, but i see us finishing 9th... which by the way is an Outstanding position

 

[Acker79]

Would you prefer...
A winning (successful) season in the Championship?
A loosing (unsuccessful) season in the Premiership?

even if we spent an enormous sum of money we would get annihalated in the Premiership. Even if we did manage to stay up for a couple of seasons we would then probably pay for it later by decending in a Portsmouth style fiasco where we incurred massive debts but still failed to stay up. Or we end up like Wolves where no-one wanted to be manager because they all see the inevitable drop coming.

Personally I would prefer to be successful as high as we can be successful at - which at present is the Championship.

Can you guarantee we will have a successful championship season next year?
What about Norwich, Swansea - teams that haven't spent ridiculous amounts of money but are making a go of it?
What about the likes of Blackpool who accept a tough year in the premier league, but stay within budget, invest the profits of a year in the premier league sensibly come down and look to be going back up,
What about west brom and wolves who spend a few seasons going up and down, as they improve their squad with the added bonus of premier league money every other year?

The worst case scenarios of portsmouth and wolves are misleading, unless you seriously think Tony Bloom is going to go against character and lose his head.

To me the key points are
-you can't pick and choose when you go up,
-a team that comes down from the premier league is often among the favourites to go back up
-teams that have premier league status in their recent history will find it easier to sign better players because they'd be seen as more likely to return there
-the money from a year in the premier league will fund a better squad, improving our chances of promotion back to the premier league (say our transfer budget on the back of the stadium sponsorship and season tickets was 5m this season, there's a limit to how much our transfer kitty can be based on sponsorship deals and season tickets, but the parachute payment would give us a big boost)

Wolves are currently managerless because they had an impetuous owner reacting to a derby loss, who then had a manager lined up in steve bruce but changed his mind when he realised the fans didn't want him, then couldn't agree terms with various other options, and who has a history of undermining the manager.
Portsmouth aren't potless because they spent loads, they are potless because they spent loads when thy couldn't afford to sustain it. Tony bloom has shown he is not a man to spend out more than he can afford, our budget has been restrained this year, with a wage structure in place.

To suggest we either go bust, like portsmouth, or fail and become a club no one wants to manage, like wolves, goes against the evidence that the overwhelming majority of clubs have not gone that way, and the actions of Tony Bloom since he became chairman.

I'm a fan of brighton, win lose or draw. I want to see them play as well as they can, get as far as they can, and like to be entertained when I watch them play. To only want to be a fan of brighton if they're having a successful season is a little... I don't know it just doesn't seem right to me.

 

[Super Steve Earle]

Can you guarantee we will have a successful championship season next year?
What about Norwich, Swansea - teams that haven't spent ridiculous amounts of money but are making a go of it?
What about the likes of Blackpool who accept a tough year in the premier league, but stay within budget, invest the profits of a year in the premier league sensibly come down and look to be going back up,
What about west brom and wolves who spend a few seasons going up and down, as they improve their squad with the added bonus of premier league money every other year?

The worst case scenarios of portsmouth and wolves are misleading, unless you seriously think Tony Bloom is going to go against character and lose his head.

To me the key points are
-you can't pick and choose when you go up,
-a team that comes down from the premier league is often among the favourites to go back up
-teams that have premier league status in their recent history will find it easier to sign better players because they'd be seen as more likely to return there
-the money from a year in the premier league will fund a better squad, improving our chances of promotion back to the premier league (say our transfer budget on the back of the stadium sponsorship and season tickets was 5m this season, there's a limit to how much our transfer kitty can be based on sponsorship deals and season tickets, but the parachute payment would give us a big boost)

Wolves are currently managerless because they had an impetuous owner reacting to a derby loss, who then had a manager lined up in steve bruce but changed his mind when he realised the fans didn't want him, then couldn't agree terms with various other options, and who has a history of undermining the manager.
Portsmouth aren't potless because they spent loads, they are potless because they spent loads when thy couldn't afford to sustain it. Tony bloom has shown he is not a man to spend out more than he can afford, our budget has been restrained this year, with a wage structure in place.

To suggest we either go bust, like portsmouth, or fail and become a club no one wants to manage, like wolves, goes against the evidence that the overwhelming majority of clubs have not gone that way, and the actions of Tony Bloom since he became chairman.

I'm a fan of brighton, win lose or draw. I want to see them play as well as they can, get as far as they can, and like to be entertained when I watch them play. To only want to be a fan of brighton if they're having a successful season is a little... I don't know it just doesn't seem right to me.

Excellent post.

 

[Turkey]

I respect the view that it may be too soon for us to go up - but, this league is so competitive I am not fully convinced we'll suddenly be better next season, we had great momentum coming into the start of the season, we wont have that or the Amex buzz next year. Additionally, Gus will leave at some point. That could set us back as a new man comes in and tinkers things to his style. Going up would be massive financialy because we are some way behind the rest in this league with our budget and that money plus parachute payments would really set us up. I'm certainly not saying we have to go up, because I just wanted to stay up this season, but if we've got the opportunity, we should certainly go for it!

 

[Cheshire Cat]

To only want to be a fan of brighton if they're having a successful season is a little... I don't know it just doesn't seem right to me.

I didn't say that at all. I actualy said "I would prefer to be successful as high as we can be successful at - which at present is the Championship".

Having observed BHA going up and down over the past nearly 40 years, it is more pleasurable to watch them on the up. To support a team that is forever loosing becomes more an ordeal. I like to look forward to the results at 5.45 on Saturday, not dread what I am about to see.

Also I bitterly resent the condescending attitude of the media towards any "lesser" club playing bigger opposition - the "out to enjoy themselves", "its their own cup final", "plucky little brighton against the mighty whoevertheyare" crap

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2012/feb/24/secret-footballer-cash-trophies

 

[Acker79]

I didn't say that at all. I actualy said "I would prefer to be successful as high as we can be successful at - which at present is the Championship".

I didn't mean to suggest you did, it was more why the idea of a losing season in the premier league isn't so off putting to me, rather than a winning season in the championship.

 

[brightn'ove]

Typical.

It seems some people are setting themselves up to have a moan if we go up, any other club would be ecstatic, but not here, people will moan at anything

Oh ffs we got promoted to the premier league, sack the board

 

[beardy gull]

Sorry OP, but I think it was shown last year that it's very much more important how many points the SEVENTH place team has achieved, not the sixth, as we just need to get more than them. Some of the previous sixth placed teams will have had EXCESS points!

What a load of bollox. You need one more point than the team in 7th place to get into the play-offs. A simiular thread was started on a WHU forum and i said the same, we need one more point than the team in 3rd place to go up automatically.

Anything other than that is a waste of time speculating on.

This!



04/05 70pts +9gd
05/06 67pts +9
06/07 74pts +12
07/08 70pts +6
08/09 74pts +13
09/10 69pts +4
10/11 72pts +12

So an average of 70.85 would be enough to finish ahead of the 7th placed team.

 

[super-seagulls]

If you take form over the past ten games and make an adjustment for those with games in hand, with 3 games to go for everyone the top will look like this:-

Plyd Pnts Last 10 Adj Proj at 43 games
Reading 32 57 24 26 83
WHU 32 61 18 20 81
=============================
Birmingham 32 54 21 23 77
Soton 33 62 15 15 77
Blackpool 33 55 20 20 75
Brighton 33 53 21 21 74
-------------------------------------
Cardiff 32 53 15 17 70
Hull 31 51 15 18 69
Boro 32 53 12 13 66

The most likely inaccuracy is that Cardiff will probably do better having got back to League business after the Carling. That will mean that its likely to be too close to call!

Don't let Tricky Dicky see this, he might just explode!!

 

[Mutts Nuts]

I don't think we'd be a Derby or a Bradford because we would spend a lot of money. We may even stay up. But doing it that way (i.e. throwing loads of cash at it in one summer) is not the best long-term option.

It ain us lot you have to try to convince, it`s Gus and Tony

 

[Digweeds Trousers]

Tough tough games to come. Reading at home - probably the toughest time to play them if they carry on as they are. They are winning away from home with ease - according to one of the Boro lads at work who went home for the weekend and went to the game Boro were just not capable of exerting any type of pressure. Said that Reading pretty much waltzed through the 90 minutes in second gear.

Boro at home - winnable as they are in a slump but suspect that will change at some point.

Cardiff at home - lets see how the defeat and the manner of it on Sunday affects them - could go either way.

Watford at home - should inw

Porstmouth at home - reagardless of where we are in what division we must beat Fagins bunck of raggedy littel pick pockting villains.

I can't see it. We need to do too much against too many good sides and at the pressure-end of the season.

An epic start to our return to Championship life and beyond anything I could have hoped for. Next season is the one. Could be amazing. But this season? Possible but in my opinion to much needs to go our way.