[Politics] Our next prime minister BBC 1

[Kalimantan Gull]

She may have promised earlier that she wouldn't support a second referendum. I think this is all about who can unite parliament more than the deal itself.

Eventually, the factions of the Tory party will fall into line to get it through, for no other reason than that ultimately Tory MPs care more about their party than their country.

Completely agree. I think its only possible under Boris, compared to the other candidates. Probably why he is a shoo-in to win

 

[Gwylan]

How many MPs do you foresee the Brexit Party contributing to this coalition, given that they couldn't score an open goal in Peterbrough the other week?

what eould Farage have to offer? He has no mps to affect a parliamentary vote until an election which would likely result in tories being wiped out.

Farage has got plenty to offer. He doesn't want or need any MPs, if he can guarantee a majority of Leave MPs it doesn't matter whether they're Tory or BP.

I suspect that he'll want a seat for himself but his thinking is that 400 Leave MPs (say, 395 Tories and 5 BP) all prepared to vote for no-deal would do very nicely. Farage gets a seat in the cabinet, Johnson gets Brexit through, the economy collapses - which will all be the EU's fault.

 

[vegster]

How many MPs do you foresee the Brexit Party contributing to this coalition, given that they couldn't score an open goal in Peterbrough the other week?

Indeed, I think there have only been one or two genuinely elected UKIP MP's over the last 3-4 parliaments. Farage himself is a serial loser when it comes to parliamentary elections.

I think most people are sensible enough not to vote for a party with no manifesto other than Brexit.... Well, I hope!

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Farage has got plenty to offer. He doesn't want or need any MPs, if he can guarantee a majority of Leave MPs it doesn't matter whether they're Tory or BP.

I suspect that he'll want a seat for himself but his thinking is that 400 Leave MPs (say, 395 Tories and 5 BP) all prepared to vote for no-deal would do very nicely. Farage gets a seat in the cabinet, Johnson gets Brexit through, the economy collapses - which will all be the EU's fault.

Brexit Party could wipe the tories out. BP + Tory coalition could never wipe out the other parties

 

[Gwylan]

Indeed, I think there have only been one or two genuinely elected UKIP MP's over the last 3-4 parliaments. Farage himself is a serial loser when it comes to parliamentary elections.

I think most people are sensible enough not to vote for a party with no manifesto other than Brexit.... Well, I hope!

You're missing the point: no-one's going to vote for the BP. What the proposal will be (I'm sure) is that the BP promises not to stand against leave-voting Tories (which will probably be most of them by then). It's not going to give the Tories a completely clear run (and there'll be some Remainers there) but it will be enough to get a majority.

 

[Gwylan]

BP + Tory coalition could never wipe out the other parties

It doesn't have to - winning 10 more seats would be enough (although I think it would be more than that)

 

[hans kraay fan club]

You're missing the point: no-one's going to vote for the BP. What the proposal will be (I'm sure) is that the BP promises not to stand against leave-voting Tories (which will probably be most of them by then). It's not going to give the Tories a completely clear run (and there'll be some Remainers there) but it will be enough to get a majority.

So not 'a coalition' at all then?

 

[Eeyore]

Is that definate then or just because you say so like a few others on here , sounds to me like you're trying to put a brave face on reality
regards
DR

It's the definite outcome. I'm most relaxed about it. No need for false contortions on my countenance.

I do suspect much steam and flush in yours though as this goes on.

I'm okay with us leaving. No need to hurry though. Let's get it right, eh ?

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

It doesn't have to - winning 10 more seats would be enough (although I think it would be more than that)

You've suggested they could win 400 combined from current 313, by joining forces. I don't see how that is in the slightest bit possible. Declaring a partnership with farage would surely see their vote share drop, that man is poison in many places

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

It's the definite outcome. I'm most relaxed about it. No need for false contortions on my countenance.

I do suspect much steam and flush in yours though as this goes on.

I'm okay with us leaving. No need to hurry though. Let's get it right, eh ?

It was right first time around , unfortunately some stuborn people still think it isn't, Democracy will be the winner as instructed in the Referendum result after all it's not to much to ask for is it
regards
DR

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

Brexit Party could wipe the tories out. BP + Tory coalition could never wipe out the other parties

Is that a fact or are you just saying it to feel better
regards
DR

 

[Gwylan]

So not 'a coalition' at all then?

It will be because you can be sure that Farage will get a seat - even if he's the only BP MP

He'll stand in somewhere like Stoke (last GE, UKIP+Tories got 2000 more votes than Lab). Of course, UKIP itself could stand there, which would muck things up a bit but I reckon that Farage would win there

 

[hans kraay fan club]

It will be because you can be sure that Farage will get a seat - even if he's the only BP MP

He'll stand in somewhere like Stoke (last GE, UKIP+Tories got 2000 more votes than Lab). Of course, UKIP itself could stand there, which would muck things up a bit but I reckon that Farage would win there

A Tory government with ONE cabinet member from BP is really not a coalition.

Even your Stoke scenario, requires the Tory party to not field a candidate. Not sure that is palatable to the party.

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

Farage has got plenty to offer. He doesn't want or need any MPs, if he can guarantee a majority of Leave MPs it doesn't matter whether they're Tory or BP.

I suspect that he'll want a seat for himself but his thinking is that 400 Leave MPs (say, 395 Tories and 5 BP) all prepared to vote for no-deal would do very nicely. Farage gets a seat in the cabinet, Johnson gets Brexit through, the economy collapses - which will all be the EU's
So the EU come out
of it unscathed, .





Deluded


Regards
DR

 

[Gwylan]

You've suggested they could win 400 combined from current 313, by joining forces. I don't see how that is in the slightest bit possible. Declaring a partnership with farage would surely see their vote share drop, that man is poison in many places

Current voting intention (according to YouGov) BP + Tories 43%. That would be enough for a very healthy majority

 

[vegster]

You're missing the point: no-one's going to vote for the BP. What the proposal will be (I'm sure) is that the BP promises not to stand against leave-voting Tories (which will probably be most of them by then). It's not going to give the Tories a completely clear run (and there'll be some Remainers there) but it will be enough to get a majority.

I see what you mean now, so effectively the BP is threatening blackmail..... And threatening to split the Labour vote.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Current voting intention (according to YouGov) BP + Tories 43%. That would be enough for a very healthy majority

But they're splitting the vote in many constituencies, its a mistake to assume if no tory candidate they'll vote Brexit, or vice versa, and there'll be plenty of long time tories who won't vote for them if they declare a partnership with Farage

 

[Gwylan]

A Tory government with ONE cabinet member from BP is really not a coalition.

Even your Stoke scenario, requires the Tory party to not field a candidate. Not sure that is palatable to the party.

Yes, that's the sticking point. That's why I think that BP won't field many candidates as Tories won't stand down in many seats. It may be somewhere else other than Stoke - a seat where Labour holds by a big (gish) majority but where the Tories came nowhere - I could see a Tory standing down there.

I don't know enough about the demographics of voting to suggest somewhere but I'm sure there's somewhere in the north that would fit the bill.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Is that a fact or are you just saying it to feel better
regards
DR

Fact

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

Fact

Seeing is believing
regards
DR