Odds now up at Victor Chandler (14:15 5/11/09: Copp 4/6; Wise 7/1; Poy 7/1; Cott 8/1)

[jordanseagull]

OK, so Russell was 25/1. However, the man that we ACTUALLY went for was favourite, so the fact that Coppell is favourite indicates that we are going for him.

It's all down to him suppose. He only left last time because the plans had not been approved so maybe now the stadium is in the proces of being built he will want to come.

Here's to hoping, how exciting this season could end up becoming.

 

[pork pie]

OK, so Russell was 25/1. However, the man that we ACTUALLY went for was favourite, so the fact that Coppell is favourite indicates that we are going for him.

It's all down to him suppose. He only left last time because the plans had not been approved so maybe now the stadium is in the proces of being built he will want to come.

Here's to hoping, how exciting this season could end up becoming.

To be fair, he ONLY LEFT BECAUSE TIGHT SOLD HIM. He had made it clear that he was willing to honour his Contract with us, but Tight was more interested in Reading's compensation offer.

 

[8ace]

was he ? its a stab in the dark and a risk but if he had somebody working with him like peter taylor or even nobby horton who know the game inside out it could happen,ive tossed away worse fivers thats for sure

Yep saw him myself. I've tossed away a fiver on Alan Curbishley based on nothing more than wishful thinking really!

 

[Simster]

Paul Jewell would be a MINT signing.

 

[jordanseagull]

To be fair, he ONLY LEFT BECAUSE TIGHT SOLD HIM. He had made it clear that he was willing to honour his Contract with us, but Tight was more interested in Reading's compensation offer.

Very true, but he also did say that part of his departure was due to the un-finished plans, was it not?

With Tight gone (liar), Bloom in charge, money in the club, stadium well on its way, I see no reason for Coppell to turn us down, other than personal/family reasons..

 

[Mustela Furo]

if Coppell is short at 6/4 that means if it isn't him they are offering very good odds on the Man who will end up getting it.

Not true actually.

Victor Chandler are currently pricing up the book at an incredible 253% ... and to be honest it is actually greater than that as there may be candidates unlisted.

There can only be one winner, and there is a 100% chance of that happening .. meaning that they are building in a theoretical 153% profit margin.

In short this means that ALL candidates are UNDER-PRICED not over priced.

At 6/4, Coppell represents a 40% chance ... but take him out of the running completely and the book is still 213%!

In a typical football match with three outcomes ,win, lose, draw the average bookmaker will bet to around 108% ... building in a theoretical 8% profit margin for themselves.

Of course this figure is only thoretical as it only becomes fact if they lay equal ratios of wagers on all of the outcomes ... in a 3 horse race among a major bookie that is likely - hence most large bookies will usually win most betting events, REGARDLESS of the actual winner.


so is this wrong of VC to be ripping the punters off like this? Actually no it isn't. In events like this, they may only attract wagers for seven or eight of the "runners", meaning that to cover themselves they have to offer very measly odds. Plus also in reality there are only ever 5 or 6 genuine contenders - it is just that at the time of opening their book they don't know who they are yet.

So in practice the bookies build their book around the first 6 or 7 in the market .... the odds for Coppell, Cotterilll, Wise, Poyet, Sheringham, Southgate, Taylor and Jewell come to 114% - a more than reasonable book that should represent at least a modest profit for the layer regardless of outcome.

Everything else is a bonus for the bookie and so could in theory be any price .... other than the fact that insider trading could lead to a couple of large bets on a winning outsider - hence the limitation of stakes if you try and get on.

It also means that just a £20 bet on, say John Gregory at 28/1 will see his odds drop .... probably halve in fact (and that is if they will let you have as much as £20 on him).

I should add that, at 10:00 this morning when they opened the book, VC were trading to 273%, so it has come down a shade over the five hours of trading to date. That is normal as they get a better feel for the market the longer the event goes on. I would guess that tomorrow we may see the market open at around 200% once they have assessed their books overnight. they will push some no-hopers out considerably in the hope of picking up some fun money.

 

[pork pie]

Paul Jewell would be a MINT signing.

Good shout. Someone of that caliber is what we need if Tony Blooms plans are to be realised.

 

[Spanish Seagulls]

Paul Jewell ? No thanks. Remember Derby? That means it's gonna be him..Oh god what have I done, now I must get to the bookies & bet on him as it's the only way to stop it happening!

 

[Simster]

Paul Jewell ? No thanks. Remember Derby? That means it's gonna be him..Oh god what have I done, now I must get to the bookies & bet on him as it's the only way to stop it happening!

Almost every manager has a blot on his copybook, and the only ones that don't are in the Premiership.

 

[Dick Knights Mumm]

How can you take anyone seriously who you have seen on a home-made porn film ?

 

[pork pie]

How can you take anyone seriously who you have seen on a home-made porn film ?

Have you now? Who is that?

 

[Dick Knights Mumm]

Not true actually.

That was very interesting Mustela my old fruit.

 

[Dick Knights Mumm]

Have you now? Who is that?

Paul Jewell. One of the Sunday rags showed showed some stills (Jewell was adjusting the camera - apparently in mid-stroke).

 

[Man of Harveys]

Paul Jewell. One of the Sunday rags showed showed some stills (Jewell was adjusting the camera - apparently in mid-stroke).

Let me guess: in common with most of the teams he's ever managed, this particular work of art that you so enjoyed also featured him...going down?

 

[SirDouglasLoft]

Nigel Adkins, were did that one spring from? He weren't on there earlier.

 

[Fef]

It was the double-R reference. Just being pedantic.

Phew! I hate it when I don't spot some well-placed pedantry!

 

[vulture]

ask aids he was the only one to get slade right last time

 

[Icy Gull]

Dickinson will be well happy if it's Paul Jewell

 

[sixnilup]

What about Gully?

 

[Mustela Furo]

just taken another look - with the additions of Adkins, Thordarson, Ternant, plus no lengthening of odds anywhere else, the book is now up to 277%!