NZ shame on you!

[Albion Dan]

New Zealand
Population = 4,822,233
Covid deaths = 25 = 0.0005 of population
Initial GDP reduction = 12.2%

Sweden
Population = 10,099,265
Covid deaths = 5864 = 0.058 of population
Initial GDP reduction = 8.6%

United Kingdom
Population = 67,886,011 = 0.61 of population
Covid deaths = 41,705
Initial GDP reduction = 20%

Hhmm, wonder who is coping best as a whole during this Pandemic.

If it's economics against human life, it could be argued Sweden.
If it's human life against economics, then without doubt New Zealand.
If it's all round **** up then the UK is hands down winner of these 3.

I think the important thing for me is that Sweden believe they may have achieved herd immunity. If that’s true then that’s huge for them moving forward whilst we are all still stuck on the starting blocks hoping for a cure.

 

[London Pompous]

I think the important thing for me is that Sweden believe they may have achieved herd immunity. If that’s true

It isn't.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2251615-is-swedens-coronavirus-strategy-a-cautionary-tale-or-a-success-story/

 

[highflyer]

It isn't.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2251615-is-swedens-coronavirus-strategy-a-cautionary-tale-or-a-success-story/

Not sure that's true though. The article simply draws on antibody studies and concludes not enough antibody immunity (@around 20%) to achieve herd immunity. But there are other forms of immunity that won't be detected, and the numbers and evidence for Sweden being in a good position (even if not full herd immunity) are very positive. They haven't really changed what they are doing since the start and the numbers of cases, and of deaths are staying consistently low now. It's the consistency that is most encouraging to me, they seem to have reached a balance that works. Whether or not it qualifies as herd immunity, it's not a bad place to be.

Whether Sweden, or New Zealand, or somewhere else ultimately took the 'best' decisions will only be known a lot further into the future.
The only thing I am really sure about is that the UK is not going to be held up as the model of success.

 

[Albion Dan]

It isn't.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2251615-is-swedens-coronavirus-strategy-a-cautionary-tale-or-a-success-story/

This Swedish expert, speaking last week, disagrees:

Jonas Ludvigsson, professor of epidemiology at Karolinska Institute, said: "Our strategy has been consistent and sustainable".

The professor added that Sweden likely had a higher level of immunity in the population than most countries.

"I think we benefit a lot from that now," he said.

If Sweden continue to remain with a low case and death rate whilst their economy continues to outperform things are going to get very uncomfortable for those Governments following the lock down strategy.

 

[e77]

This Swedish expert, speaking last week, disagrees:

Jonas Ludvigsson, professor of epidemiology at Karolinska Institute, said: "Our strategy has been consistent and sustainable".

The professor added that Sweden likely had a higher level of immunity in the population than most countries.

"I think we benefit a lot from that now," he said.

If Sweden continue to remain with a low case and death rate whilst their economy continues to outperform things are going to get very uncomfortable for those Governments following the lock down strategy.

Indeed. How dare governments have a safety first policy intended to save lives that was agreed almost unanimously by scientific advice at the time.

 

[pb21]

Not sure that's true though. The article simply draws on antibody studies and concludes not enough antibody immunity (@around 20%) to achieve herd immunity. But there are other forms of immunity that won't be detected,

I keep hearing about this and it seems to be a valid point (T-cells etc). However, I haven't seen any analysis of what %ge are thought to be immune through other forms.

If 20% of a population have antibodies (and are therefore immune (presumably, for now)) what percentage would be immune through other forms?

Is it significant, marginal or negligible?

 

[Is it PotG?]

Indeed. How dare governments have a safety first policy intended to save lives that was agreed almost unanimously by scientific advice at the time.

Whatever 'rules' are spouted from our leaders, many of the UK public will stick two fingers up anyhow should it inconvenience them.

 

[e77]

Whatever 'rules' are spouted from our leaders, many of the UK public will stick two fingers up anyhow should it inconvenience them.

Indeed. I suspect lockdown fatigue will begin to become more common.

 

[A1X]

Indeed. How dare governments have a safety first policy intended to save lives that was agreed almost unanimously by scientific advice at the time.

Hindsight is always 20:20, using it to judge decisions taken in good faith at the time is distinctly dodgy ground.

Yours, someone who wrote and researched extensively on Chamberlain's policy of appeasement toward Hitler in the late 1930s.

 

[Albion Dan]

Whatever 'rules' are spouted from our leaders, many of the UK public will stick two fingers up anyhow should it inconvenience them.

And for that issue you probably need to go back to the Dominic Cummings affair. Why would the public do something that those in charge clearly weren't doing themselves.

This is from the HoC this week. Why aren't those MP's social distancing? In fact why are those MPs so close together if they are telling us how dangerous this disease is? Is it any wonder the public at large aren't doing what these people tell us?

 

[darkwolf666]

Hindsight is always 20:20, using it to judge decisions taken in good faith at the time is distinctly dodgy ground.

Yours, someone who wrote and researched extensively on Chamberlain's policy of appeasement toward Hitler in the late 1930s.

But it’s not all hindsight, the great and good and learned of NSC questioned why the government didn’t close down large horse racing events, why they left football to sort out its own house and pretty much the same with schools, only finally closing schools when schools could no longer open due to lack of staff or parents feeling safe dropping their kids off...

People also questioned the totally ridiculous advice to not go to the pub, and left them open another week before the government finally came to their senses...

A lot of it’s not hindsight, or even rocket science, but signs of a government crippled by the needs of economics over health and have often done too little too late!

 

[highflyer]

I keep hearing about this and it seems to be a valid point (T-cells etc). However, I haven't seen any analysis of what %ge are thought to be immune through other forms.

If 20% of a population have antibodies (and are therefore immune (presumably, for now)) what percentage would be immune through other forms?

Is it significant, marginal or negligible?

God knows.I am in same position as you, and pretty much everyone else, relying on 'bestguesswork'.

So...making some extremely heroic assumptions:

You need 70% to get to complete herd immunity - where it will disappear.

Sweden hasn't reached that point, but has 20% antibody immunity and is close enough to full immunity that R is staying at 1 or below, with relatively minimal precautions (as per [MENTION=38333]Swansman[/MENTION] testimony) so, say 40% - 50% effective immunity in practice

Therefore can we assume T-cell immunity is present in 20-30% of population? Which seems 'significant'.

That also seems to be roughly the average % of cases that are asymptomatic as well. So could be a link.

 

[A1X]

But it’s not all hindsight, the great and good and learned of NSC questioned why the government didn’t close down large horse racing events, why they left football to sort out its own house and pretty much the same with schools, only finally closing schools when schools could no longer open due to lack of staff or parents feeling safe dropping their kids off...

People also questioned the totally ridiculous advice to not go to the pub, and left them open another week before the government finally came to their senses...

A lot of it’s not hindsight, or even rocket science, but signs of a government crippled by the needs of economics over health and have often done too little too late!

Oh don't get me wrong, there are obvious smaller decisions (such as all those mentioned) which absolutely can be criticised. It's the "bigger picture" items, such as whether to have a lockdown or not, which only really become clear with hindsight.

 

[Stat Brother]

One of my favourite Podcasts is The Cryptid Factor (you must listen to the Segments episode from last week).
This weeks show comes from Rhys in lockdown.



Anyhoo Rhys Darby has returned to NZ.

To get back in he had too:-

Fly from Auckland (?) to Christchurch.
Taken from the plane direct to the Novtel Hotel at the airport.
Stay in the room for 14 days.
Just an hours isolated exercise (sound familar)
3 meals a day left at the door.
Other games, airfix models, word searches etc randomly turn up.
Daily health and temperature checks.


I guess that's why there's more cases of Covid in The White House than all of New Zealand.

 

[keaton]

To get back in he had too:-

Fly from Auckland (?) to Christchurch.
Taken from the plane direct to the Novtel Hotel at the airport.
Stay in the room for 14 days.
Just an hours isolated exercise (sound familar)
3 meals a day left at the door.
Other games, airfix models, word searches etc randomly turn up.
Daily health and temperature checks.

.

I know it's not the point but that sounds pretty tempting. I do have 9 month old though so anything where I could sleep, exercise and food is attractive

 

[Is it PotG?]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/54535478

 

[e77]

Granted NZ Labour have fallen away a bit but Ardern seems to retain the support of her country,

New Zealand Polls

 

[A1X]

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