[Albion] Number of seasons in the Premier League - is our expectation simply unrealistic?

[blue-shifted]

Yes I think the supporters would be largely understanding and supportive for a season in the Championship but they would be expecting home wins and a comfortable top 6 position. Anything less and there would likely be meltdown.

And the majority of relegated teams don't get that in their first season

 

[Giraffe]

My concern about relegation is the number of relegated clubs from the last 3 seasons who are struggling in the championship or in Sunderland's case are just coming back up from L2
Relegated 2016-17
Sunderland 5th L1, Hull 18th Boro 22nd

Relegated 2017-18
Stoke 21st, WBA 1st!! Swansea 9th

Relegated 2018-2019
Cardiff 11th, Fulham 3rd!! Huddersfield 17th

Only 2 "bouncing back" the rest are mostly bottom half of the table or worse.

It's a very tough division to get out of the right end.

The thing is you can easily dismiss those failures on the basis that they are no longer "well run" or at least not "well invested".

Sunderland have been a basket case for years.
Hull the same.
Middlesborough - the owner has decided he won't bank roll it anymore - would TB do this, I doubt it.
Stoke - massive wage bill required big cull - we don't have that.
Huddersfield - were batting way above their level and owners have now pulled the plug on that level of investment.

 

[Pavilionaire]

The thing is you can easily dismiss those failures on the basis that they are no longer "well run" or at least not "well invested".

Sunderland have been a basket case for years.
Hull the same.
Middlesborough - the owner has decided he won't bank roll it anymore - would TB do this, I doubt it.
Stoke - massive wage bill required big cull - we don't have that.
Huddersfield - were batting way above their level and owners have now pulled the plug on that level of investment.

I agree with this. My biggest worry with relegation would be Potter himself, purely for the fact he is unproven at any level in England. The leading teams in the Championship often have wise old heads as managers, with this season being no exception with Bielsa and Bilic.

There's a reason why we went up with Hughton, and why the likes of Warnock, Steve Bruce, Nigel Pearson do well in the Championship. It's a tough place for a rookie manager, i.e. Nathan Jones, Jonathan Woodgate, even Sami Hyypia.

Personally, I think Potter could take us up again but if we do get relegated Bloom will know there will be no shortage of applicants if he gives Potter the chop.

 

[rippleman]

Average wage 18th

Average wage 18th

Average wage 18th

Average wage 18th

This may be the case but you have to look at our spend on players! We are significantly higher than 18th. Unfortunately, a lot of the transfer spend has been pissed up against the wall recruiting players that weren't up to the job.

 

[Napper]

One of the worst things about our likely relegation was all the talk of top 10 ambitions.

You are unlikely to be top 10 unless you spend top 10 wages and the like.

We are historically a L1 level club.

I'd suggest we now can expect us to be championship.

Our stay was always likely to be a short one and we've exceeded what I thought we would do.

Will we be back - I reckon yes but will take a number of years.

Still , we expeienced it and that can't be taken away

 

[rippleman]

A team that finishes 10th, 4th, 6th, TWENTIETH, 3rd and then promoted knows just how competitive and perilous the Championship is. As someone said on another thread this is now a 10-game league featuring six or seven clubs. It'll probably take 10 points to survive. We failed to do this last year with a renowned PL survivor in CH. This is the defining moment of Potter's career and he must be under huge pressure. That's the only real expectation flying around this club at the moment.

But is Potter under "huge pressure"? Won't any pressure have been alieviated by giving him a 6 year extension to his contract before he had proved that he was "Premier League ready"?

Would we be able to afford to sack him with that length of contract? And if we do sack him his payoff would be immense. If I was guaranteed employment for at least six years and knew that if I didn't perform I could see out the next six years or get a payout that meant I could take the next 5 or 6 years off, would I feel under pressure? Nope.

 

[Bold Seagull]

But is Potter under "huge pressure"? Won't any pressure have been alieviated by giving him a 6 year extension to his contract before he had proved that he was "Premier League ready"?

Would we be able to afford to sack him with that length of contract? And if we do sack him his payoff would be immense. If I was guaranteed employment for at least six years and knew that if I didn't perform I could see out the next six years or get a payout that meant I could take the next 5 or 6 years off, would I feel under pressure? Nope.

People seem obsessed with his contract. You don't have any idea what the severance terms are. It might have been a contract well weighted in the club's favour in terms of performance targets and levels of paying off the contract in the event of sacking a manager. Just making a whole lot of assumptions.

 

[SAC]

People seem obsessed with his contract. You don't have any idea what the severance terms are. It might have been a contract well weighted in the club's favour in terms of performance targets and levels of paying off the contract in the event of sacking a manager. Just making a whole lot of assumptions.

Indeed, none of us know. However I doubt that the new contract would have been worse for Potter than the previous one and I think it fair to assume that the payout on terminating the new contract will be larger than terminating the old one.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Indeed, none of us know. However I doubt that the new contract would have been worse for Potter than the previous one and I think it fair to assume that the payout on terminating the new contract will be larger than terminating the old one.

We also know that Hughton was on pretty much the bottom wage of PL managers, and I suspect Potter's first contract was below that. This one may just pull him up to being the least paid in the league this season. There probably are decent severance terms, doesn't it's a full pay out of the remaining time on the contract though.

 

[Seasidesage]

Average wage 18th

Average wage 18th

Average wage 18th

Average wage 18th

This

 

[Giraffe]

This may be the case but you have to look at our spend on players! We are significantly higher than 18th. Unfortunately, a lot of the transfer spend has been pissed up against the wall recruiting players that weren't up to the job.

I think our net spend is very misleading. Yes we have spent a lot, but the wages league table is much more relevant. Nearly every club that goes up spends £100m + just to try and catch up. But the ongoing wage bill once you have done this is a much better guide to the quality of player you have in your squad than the transfer fee. £20m really doesn't buy you very much there days, and we haven't spent more than that on a single player.

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

The Albion's Championship annual business model, after stripping out ad hoc promotion costs, is:

Income £29m
Costs -£59m We have a very high cost base.
Loss -£30m

Parachute income would briefly raise income, but 75% of the squad would be on huge PL contracts.

It's not a financial model to exult. The club may be commended by writers possibly because; the Lancing and Falmer facilities are amazing, we have no bank debt, we're welcoming to visiting fans and others, our ascent from near oblivion, and we seem to stay out of controversies and repeat sackings?

If we have a low wage cap where do the costs come from? Too many players but on low wages?

 

[Eric Youngs Contact Lense]

The Albion's Championship annual business model, after stripping out ad hoc promotion costs, is:

Income £29m
Costs -£59m We have a very high cost base.
Loss -£30m

Parachute income would briefly raise income, but 75% of the squad would be on huge PL contracts.

It's not a financial model to exult. The club may be commended by writers possibly because; the Lancing and Falmer facilities are amazing, we have no bank debt, we're welcoming to visiting fans and others, our ascent from near oblivion, and we seem to stay out of controversies and repeat sackings?

Good point. I guess I wasn't necessarily thinking about our financial model per se , but the sense that we have invested in a long-term plan wit h the training facilities, investment in youth players that hopefully have some suggestion of resilience that the Club is building, whether that be talent to play in the 1st team or talent to sell on. But also the commitment of the Club to a long-term plan that will be behind all the decisions that it makes in the short and mid-term. A strategy that they will have thought about, thought through and considered scenarios, including relegation. I don't expect to bounce back if relegated, football is too unpredictable, but we could compete and challenge again as other clubs have done, whilst those that nose-dive out of control often appear to have a back-story of chaos or mis-management. I willingly accept that there will be cases that may be quoted to suggest otherwise, but other Clubs have survived and continued to do ok as well - why can't we?

 

[Weststander]

If we have a low wage cap where do the costs come from? Too many players but on low wages?

2018/19:

Payroll £102m including £2m to paid directors
Depreciation £6m
Amortisation of player contracts (transfer & agents fees) £33m
Interest £2.6m
Overheads, cost of merchandise, cost of catering £27m

I think you’re right. Many players on more than decent money, even fringe players. Plus a huge support team of Ashworth, Winstanley, analysts, physios, scouts, the academy, as well running a WPL team.

 

[Silverhatch]

But is Potter under "huge pressure"? Won't any pressure have been alieviated by giving him a 6 year extension to his contract before he had proved that he was "Premier League ready"?

Would we be able to afford to sack him with that length of contract? And if we do sack him his payoff would be immense. If I was guaranteed employment for at least six years and knew that if I didn't perform I could see out the next six years or get a payout that meant I could take the next 5 or 6 years off, would I feel under pressure? Nope.

Yes, he's under huge pressure. He's a comparatively young man who's been given the opportunity to manage a (novice) Premier League club and he's following in Chris Hughton's footsteps. If we get relegated then ALL the pundits who said he was the 'Brave' appointment will join the many who say he was the 'Wrong' choice and we should've stayed with a manager who's never been relegated from the PL. The narrative then becomes Potter is not up to it and he was the choice of an inexperienced, unrealistic club. That is not a good place to be in professional football irrespective of the length of contract (although the contract term'll cushion the blow).

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

2018/19:

Payroll £102m including £2m to paid directors
Depreciation £6m
Amortisation of player contracts (transfer & agents fees) £33m
Interest £2.6m
Overheads, cost of merchandise, cost of catering £27m

I think you’re right. Many players on more than decent money, even fringe players. Plus a huge support team of Ashworth, Winstanley, analysts, physios, scouts, the academy, as well running a WPL team.

Plenty of opportunity to sharpen their pencil there

 

[Weststander]

Yes, he's under huge pressure. He's a comparatively young man who's been given the opportunity to manage a (novice) Premier League club and he's following in Chris Hughton's footsteps. If we get relegated then ALL the pundits who said he was the 'Brave' appointment will join the many who say he was the 'Wrong' choice and we should've stayed with a manager who's never been relegated from the PL. The narrative then becomes Potter is not up to it and he was the choice of an inexperienced, unrealistic club. That is not a good place to be in professional football irrespective of the length of contract (although the contract term'll cushion the blow).

Exactly, we can we write their oh so predictable headlines for them, 2 months ahead:

Stay up - TB’s brave gamble paid off.
Relegated - TB’s disloyal treatment of CH came back to bite him. Whinging fans, be careful what you wish for!

 

[Dave the OAP]

I disagree that relegation would be an unmitigated disaster. We have saleable player assets, we have players out on loan who are already comfortable at Championship level, we'd have parachute payments, a manage that knows the Championship, we have infrastructure that is bought and paid for to Premier League standard and have only one main creditor - Tony Bloom.

Moreover, you look at Giraffe's table and you realise that relegation is merely something of an occupational hazard for the likes of Norwich, Leicester, Burnley, Watford - also West Brom and Fulham in the Championship. Those clubs are used to bouncing back. Even the likes of Palace, Saints and Newcastle who have a lot of seasons in the Prem still flirt with relegation most seasons.

What makes me fairly optimistic is that even if we lost Ryan, Montoya, Duffy, Dunk, Propper, Ben White, McAllister, Jahanbaksh, Andone, Locadia, Knockaert then even with no new signings we'd be looking at a side of:Walton, Lamptey, Bernardo, Burn, Webster, Stephens, Mooy, Trossard, Bissouma, Maupay, Connolly with a bench of Button, Clarke, Gross, March, Molumby, Baluta and Tau.

Bernardo would go..trossard and maupay also.

I am not convinced we would bounce straight back.

 

[kemptown kid]

This may be the case but you have to look at our spend on players! We are significantly higher than 18th. Unfortunately, a lot of the transfer spend has been pissed up against the wall recruiting players that weren't up to the job.

And which clubs have a consistently better success rate with their signings?

 

[Albion Dan]

And which clubs have a consistently better success rate with their signings?

Considering we have the 10th highest net spend in WORLD football over 3 seasons and are still total relegation fodder most I’d say. Palace for one certainly.