Number of Deaths

[WATFORD zero]

Care homes are a f&%^ing disgrace. No-one is talking about them. Last I heard, they're still employing agency staff who are often visiting multiple care homes in a single day. The lead item on C4 News (which I'm poorly watching while typing this post) and a report in The Guardian today suggests that half of deaths in Italy and Spain are in care homes.
The ONS figures I think are imminent, and they're taking death certificates (which inevitably lag) as their guide. Oh, C4 News are now saying that a whistleblower is indicating that CV19 is not being recorded in care home deaths with eg Alzheimers, pneumonia, etc recorded instead.
We need parliament reopened as a matter of urgency IMO.

The ONS figures are due out today, so there will be more detailed information available as to the situation 7-10 days ago. But I don't think the ONS figures include deaths outside of hospital. I believe that with the deaths outside of hospital and the delays in reporting over the bank holiday weekend, the Government are aware that they are now sitting on some quite dreadful numbers. I'm wondering whether these will be used to re-iterate and extend the shutdown.

I seriously hope I'm wrong, but I am extremely worried what the Wednesday/Thursday/Friday figures may be.

 

[sparkie]

The ONS figures are due out today, so there will be more detailed information available as to the situation 7-10 days ago. But I don't think the ONS figures include deaths outside of hospital. I believe that with the deaths outside of hospital and the delays in reporting over the bank holiday weekend, the Government are aware that they are now sitting on some quite dreadful numbers. I'm wondering whether these will be used to re-iterate and extend the shutdown.

I seriously hope I'm wrong, but I am extremely worried what the Wednesday/Thursday/Friday figures may be.

I'm worried about these figures as well.

 

[darkwolf666]

Death rate looks very high because it's mainly only people in hospital with severe symptoms that are being tested (as testing expands, the gap between nos tested and deaths should grow v quickly ?)
No-one really has any clue as to how many have been infected - I've seen studies elsewhere indicating it might be as high as 38% (so if you extrapolated that our current death rate would be 1k/70m or 0.015% of the population)
Getting a true ratio doesn't hugely help with the strategy much really other than clarifying the risk - options seems to me to be either continued lockdown, progression to herd immunity through gradual relaxation of lockdown and protection of the vulnerable or a vaccine............

Can you clarify what that protection looks like?

 

[dazzer6666]

Can you clarify what that protection looks like?

Lockdown - not sure there is anything else ?

 

[Creaky]

Care homes are a f&%^ing disgrace. No-one is talking about them. Last I heard, they're still employing agency staff who are often visiting multiple care homes in a single day. The lead item on C4 News (which I'm poorly watching while typing this post) and a report in The Guardian today suggests that half of deaths in Italy and Spain are in care homes.
The ONS figures I think are imminent, and they're taking death certificates (which inevitably lag) as their guide. Oh, C4 News are now saying that a whistleblower is indicating that CV19 is not being recorded in care home deaths with eg Alzheimers, pneumonia, etc recorded instead.
We need parliament reopened as a matter of urgency IMO.

It’s NOT care homes that are the disgrace, rather the fact that the difficulties they face is being ignored - both by the government and others. Also being ignored, possibly even more so, are the domiciliary care workers.

The majority of care workers are earning either on or just above minimum wage and yet despite a chronic shortage of workers, dating back years, they have continued to do their best for the residents in care homes and those living in their own homes.

As a small example of how they are ignored my wife, who is a care worker, tried to console one of her colleagues on the phone, a domiciliary worker, who was in tears. She had visited one of her clients who had run out of milk, bread etc. and popped down to Tesco’s to get some for him before visiting her next client. Arriving at Tesco’s there were two queues, one long one for general shoppers and a short one for NHS staff. She tried to join the latter queue but was unceremoniously told that it was only for NHS workers not care workers and she would have to join the other queue.

She had the unenviable choice of leaving her client without the basic necessities or being late for her next one which can cause a deal of distress - especially at the moment. She took the latter course and was then late for all her other clients - not only that but, (of course!), she only gets paid for the actual hours she is with clients.

The use of agency staff is from my wife’s experience common amongst care staff. Hardly surprising considering the low wages, the “unattractive” nature of the work and the low esteem the job holds amongst the general population.

 

[dazzer6666]

The ONS figures are due out today, so there will be more detailed information available as to the situation 7-10 days ago. But I don't think the ONS figures include deaths outside of hospital. I believe that with the deaths outside of hospital and the delays in reporting over the bank holiday weekend, the Government are aware that they are now sitting on some quite dreadful numbers. I'm wondering whether these will be used to re-iterate and extend the shutdown.

I seriously hope I'm wrong, but I am extremely worried what the Wednesday/Thursday/Friday figures may be.

Agreed - was the first thing I thought when hearing the comments at the press calls over the weekend - seemed to be gently preparing us for some horrible news this week. I'm expecting the number of deaths to go up quite dramatically - which will then bury the likely more positive news about new admissions flattening off............also, from what I've read a lot of deaths outside of hospital are 'assumed' rather than tested - if the certifying doc suspects Covid19 then it gets counted as a Covid19 death regardless of any underlying conditions. We'll never know anything like the true number.

 

[Blue3]

Death rate looks very high because it's mainly only people in hospital with severe symptoms that are being tested (as testing expands, the gap between nos tested and deaths should grow v quickly ?)
No-one really has any clue as to how many have been infected - I've seen studies elsewhere indicating it might be as high as 38% (so if you extrapolated that our current death rate would be 1k/70m or 0.015% of the population)
Getting a true ratio doesn't hugely help with the strategy much really other than clarifying the risk - options seems to me to be either continued lockdown, progression to herd immunity through gradual relaxation of lockdown and protection of the vulnerable or a vaccine............

The problem with trying guess infection death and recovery rates in the UK using data from other countries could be very misleading we may all be humans but live very different lives.

I agree that the way out of this is a very gradual relaxation of the lockdown which with undoubtedly need some local lockdowns as hotspots flare up while continuing the protection of the vulnerable.

Ultimately a vaccine is what's required hopfully one will be found aa other Coronavirus such as the common cold which science has to date not found a vaccine

 

[darkwolf666]

Lockdown - not sure there is anything else ?

To paraphrase Star Trek, it's lockdown, but not as we know it...

Protection in this case is as the government have defined "shielding", which is effectively solitary confinement, for those living alone.

We are in for a 12 week stint, but I am quite clear in my mind that **** all will have changed in those 12 weeks.

I am fully expecting the government to suggest an additional 12 weeks, in the hope something might happen in the meantime - so we are likely to be indoors, seeing no-one until at least September and probably beyond.

I saw a statistic the other day that said those with the health issues as defined by the government as vulnerable, have an 80% higher chance of dieing if admitted to hospital - scary for those in that group!

 

[beorhthelm]

The ONS figures are due out today, so there will be more detailed information available as to the situation 7-10 days ago. But I don't think the ONS figures include deaths outside of hospital. I believe that with the deaths outside of hospital and the delays in reporting over the bank holiday weekend, the Government are aware that they are now sitting on some quite dreadful numbers. I'm wondering whether these will be used to re-iterate and extend the shutdown.

I seriously hope I'm wrong, but I am extremely worried what the Wednesday/Thursday/Friday figures may be.

The ONS numbers include all deaths registered, so cover all including outside hospital. they report on those where Covid-19 is mentioned in the death cert. Theres a sharp upward move for week 14 where as before we'd been tracking the 5yr average quite closely. they are reporting about the same for April 03 as the daily numbers on Worldometers.com.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending3april2020

 

[dazzer6666]

To paraphrase Star Trek, it's lockdown, but not as we know it...

Protection in this case is as the government have defined "shielding", which is effectively solitary confinement, for those living alone.

We are in for a 12 week stint, but I am quite clear in my mind that **** all will have changed in those 12 weeks.

I am fully expecting the government to suggest an additional 12 weeks, in the hope something might happen in the meantime - so we are likely to be indoors, seeing no-one until at least September and probably beyond.

I saw a statistic the other day that said those with the health issues as defined by the government as vulnerable, have an 80% higher chance of dieing if admitted to hospital - scary for those in that group!

Yep, exactly. I'm expecting a very gradual relaxation of lockdown (as soon as the admission rates start to show a sharp decline) - a mix of activities (eg starting with things like being able to go to parks, visit families and non-key workers returning to work but no large social gatherings, pubs etc) and probably age groups over time with the designated 'most vulnerable' not being part of that until very much later..................

That stats on deaths so far show how heightened the risk is as age increases :


Deaths by age group, England and Wales, week ending 3 April 2020

Week number Under 1 year 01-14 15-44 45-64 65-74 75-84 85+
12 COVID-19 0 0 43 412 626 1231 1163
12 All deaths 51 21 288 1860 2734 5005 6428

Source: Office for National Statistics

 

[Machiavelli]

It’s NOT care homes that are the disgrace, rather the fact that the difficulties they face is being ignored - both by the government and others. Also being ignored, possibly even more so, are the domiciliary care workers.

The majority of care workers are earning either on or just above minimum wage and yet despite a chronic shortage of workers, dating back years, they have continued to do their best for the residents in care homes and those living in their own homes.

As a small example of how they are ignored my wife, who is a care worker, tried to console one of her colleagues on the phone, a domiciliary worker, who was in tears. She had visited one of her clients who had run out of milk, bread etc. and popped down to Tesco’s to get some for him before visiting her next client. Arriving at Tesco’s there were two queues, one long one for general shoppers and a short one for NHS staff. She tried to join the latter queue but was unceremoniously told that it was only for NHS workers not care workers and she would have to join the other queue.

She had the unenviable choice of leaving her client without the basic necessities or being late for her next one which can cause a deal of distress - especially at the moment. She took the latter course and was then late for all her other clients - not only that but, (of course!), she only gets paid for the actual hours she is with clients.

The use of agency staff is from my wife’s experience common amongst care staff. Hardly surprising considering the low wages, the “unattractive” nature of the work and the low esteem the job holds amongst the general population.

I agree with everything you say here, and thanks for the insight. I only wish I'd added these three words to the beginning of my post 'The situation in' because, if I had, you wouldn't have interpreted the post in the way you did. It must be so mentally tough for your wife at present. I'm in awe of the care workers.

 

[Machiavelli]

The ONS figures are due out today, so there will be more detailed information available as to the situation 7-10 days ago. But I don't think the ONS figures include deaths outside of hospital. I believe that with the deaths outside of hospital and the delays in reporting over the bank holiday weekend, the Government are aware that they are now sitting on some quite dreadful numbers. I'm wondering whether these will be used to re-iterate and extend the shutdown.

I seriously hope I'm wrong, but I am extremely worried what the Wednesday/Thursday/Friday figures may be.

I too am worried about Wed/Thu/Fri figures due to the weekend and double bank holiday. I might be wrong on this, but I gather the ONS figures are culled from death certificates, so that ought to include non-hospitalised CV19 deaths.

 

[ManOfSussex]

HC One who operate circa 350 care homes report 311 confirmed or suspected Covid-19 deaths as of 8pm yesterday, with outbreaks in two thirds of its homes. MHA report 210 in their 131 homes, with outbreaks in half.

Source:The Grauniad: - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/14/uk-care-home-providers-report-521-coronavirus-deaths

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Trying to get my head round this a little so bear with me.

With more testing being rolled out we still seem to have a 1 in 8 death rate against actual confirmed cases (circa 11k compared to circa 88k yesterday). Right? And the expectation you have is that this will continue (that seems to be what the data is saying). And just because we are testing more doesn't mean more people actually have it, it just means we're testing more. But, the more you test, the more cases you should eventually pick up, right?

So are you saying you expect that ratio to continue? Or would widening testing further, beyond hospital and NHS staff stretch it more? The bottom end of the scale which was mentioned when we went into lockdown was 20k deaths which, sadly, I do not think is achievable now. To get to around 30k in July would mean an average of around 220 deaths a day between now and then, and we are nowhere near that low

On the other hand, that would also mean that only 240,000 out of a population of circa 70M had actually had "it", it being an incredibly infectious disease, albeit with an R less than one at the moment (probably) thanks to social distancing.

I guess I'm trying to work out if the best strategy is a longer lockdown, keeping R way below 1 or if the best strategy is much more testing to get to a true ratio? Or something else?

Very good questions.

OK let me work through an answer.

First, as I said, there is currently a ratio of reported deaths to reported cases in the UK of 1 in 8. It is easier to write the number of cases per deaths: 8. In Germany (from memory) the number is 25, which means fewer deaths per cases. These numbers vary hugely around the world (over 100 in Russia) in part because of poor data collection, in part because of deliberate fraud, and in part because different countries simply collect data in different ways (for example radio 5 keeps saying we have not yet included care home deaths as part of the cova death data).

To address your point, as long as each honest country continues to use their own rubric without changing it we should be able to see any patterns over time. Forget about Russia.

With time I would hope that our number increases, meaning that although more people test positive, the proportion who die falls. I would hope to see that across the world. If we don't see that it means either the numbers are inaccurate (and if so it will be 8 one week, 30 the next and 15 the next - all over the shop) or that we are in deep trouble (if the numbers stay the same).....

If our number stays at 8, then unless we stop new cases emerging the total death toll will reach one to five million (based on my calculations made elsewhere). So our strategy has to be to stop the spread until we have a vaccine. And make sure we measure cases and deaths more accurately.

So far (over two days only) the numbers across the world have stayed the same......I will report updates, but I wouldn't take too much notice till we compare this week with next year.

 

[sparkie]

I too am worried about Wed/Thu/Fri figures due to the weekend and double bank holiday. I might be wrong on this, but I gather the ONS figures are culled from death certificates, so that ought to include non-hospitalised CV19 deaths.

They will - but don't be fooled that they are UK figures. They are England and Wales. Scotland and NI have different organisations.

 

[KZNSeagull]

Given that around 1,600 people die each day during this time of the year do we have any way of knowing what the overall death rate is at the moment? My point being is that every death is a tragedy for the family and friends of those involved but how many above the seasonal average are we? There is a difference between dying of corona virus and dying with corona virus and I wondered whether the figure is inflated to sensationalise as the media tends to do?

So we finally have an answer to this from the ONS:

"The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 3 April 2020 (Week 14) was 16,387; this represents an increase of 5,246 deaths registered compared with the previous week (Week 13) and 6,082 more than the five-year average"

"The 16,387 deaths that were registered in England and Wales during the week ending 3 April is the highest weekly total since we started compiling weekly deaths data in 2005.”

 

[darkwolf666]

Yep, exactly. I'm expecting a very gradual relaxation of lockdown (as soon as the admission rates start to show a sharp decline) - a mix of activities (eg starting with things like being able to go to parks, visit families and non-key workers returning to work but no large social gatherings, pubs etc) and probably age groups over time with the designated 'most vulnerable' not being part of that until very much later..................

That stats on deaths so far show how heightened the risk is as age increases :


Deaths by age group, England and Wales, week ending 3 April 2020

Week number Under 1 year 01-14 15-44 45-64 65-74 75-84 85+
12 COVID-19 0 0 43 412 626 1231 1163
12 All deaths 51 21 288 1860 2734 5005 6428

Source: Office for National Statistics

Unfortunately it is the not until very much later bit that bothers me.

I understand there is little that can be done at the moment, as there is no vaccine, but I do worry that those being asked to "shield" will eventually be forgotten. Those bleating on about being in lockdown for 3 weeks really should try this shielding lark!

No chance of getting out for a once a day exercise, that's against the rules and yet some people just moan on about it...

Our household isn't probably one that the government had thought about when they asked people to shield, I'm guessing they had in mind old people, either on their own, or in a couple. We though are a family of 5, a 60 year old (me), my 59 year old wife, who has Lymphoma and is very vulnerable. We also have 2 teenage grandchildren living at home and a 3 year old.

The government advice is that all, bar my wife, can go outdoors and follow "stringently" the social distancing and hygiene rules. Unfortunately that is the problem in our household, the 2 teenage girls both have learning difficulties and as such do not have a clue about personal hygiene and wouldn't understand the concept of social distancing! Consequently we have had to take the decision to ALL follow the shielding process.

This is fine at the moment, where the government is being quite understanding and flexible with regards giving people advice to stay indoors unless you really have to go out, but at some point that attitude will change and the expectation would be for the elder one to return to work, or stop claiming Universal Credit and the same for the younger teenager, as she has just finished 6th form college, so should be looking for work! Our 3 year old is also due to start school in September - if they are back.

Basically, until this is sorted out there is no way that any of us are going out of our house.

I couldn't forgive myself if either me, or any of the 3 children in our house brought the virus back and signed my wife's death warrant...!

I really don't know where or how this is going to end for us, and I really do fear that 1.5 million most vulnerable people are going to be largely forgotten, or expected, as I have said, to sign their own death warrants!

Life clearly is always about risk management, but the risks have never been so high...

 

[Guinness Boy]

With time I would hope that our number increases, meaning that although more people test positive, the proportion who die falls. I would hope to see that across the world. If we don't see that it means either the numbers are inaccurate (and if so it will be 8 one week, 30 the next and 15 the next - all over the shop) or that we are in deep trouble (if the numbers stay the same).....

Thanks. Yes, I took that number of 8 and worked out up to 5 million deaths based on it and a 60% infection rate but the very worst case in government projections was 250k so hopefully that combination of increased testing and better reporting will get that number down.

It also teaches me not to trust the Chinese - their number, early on, was around 1 in 100 which is still a fair few if infection goes uncontrolled but, with controls, isn't (comparably). As someone who tended to look on the bright side (note past tense) that was the reason for my initial "not sure what all the fuss is about" stance. Italy obviously changed that. Other data at that time was also dissimilar to our situation as you had South Korea who controlled the whole thing perfectly and Iran who are also less than open but now seem to be less affected than the UK.

One in eight would be horrific. But I'm still hoping that control and testing will bring that the correct way. Accurate antibody testing is really the only way to know for sure though?

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

So we finally have an answer to this from the ONS:

"The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 3 April 2020 (Week 14) was 16,387; this represents an increase of 5,246 deaths registered compared with the previous week (Week 13) and 6,082 more than the five-year average"

"The 16,387 deaths that were registered in England and Wales during the week ending 3 April is the highest weekly total since we started compiling weekly deaths data in 2005.”

Thank you, so despite many protestations from a single poster, we were correct in assuming that the number would increase but some of the deaths, albeit extremely sad and regrettable as any death is, would be within the Govts numbers.

 

[golddene]

To paraphrase Star Trek, it's lockdown, but not as we know it...

Protection in this case is as the government have defined "shielding", which is effectively solitary confinement, for those living alone.

We are in for a 12 week stint, but I am quite clear in my mind that **** all will have changed in those 12 weeks.

I am fully expecting the government to suggest an additional 12 weeks, in the hope something might happen in the meantime - so we are likely to be indoors, seeing no-one until at least September and probably beyond.

I saw a statistic the other day that said those with the health issues as defined by the government as vulnerable, have an 80% higher chance of dieing if admitted to hospital - scary for those in that group!

Absolutely this, My wife has been defined as in the 'at risk group' and although we have been self isolating for the past 6 - 7 weeks and she has been told by Government advice officially now to self isolate for the last 3 weeks. I have to shop etc for us so have to be very careful while out and take extra precautions, face mask, scrubbing down and clothes changing on return, etc. Another 9 weeks isn't a major problem but this could go on indefinitely with no end in sight.