Number of Deaths

[beorhthelm]

Germany and USA seem to be keeping a higher propirion of the infected alive. USA surprises me as it is apparentlu poorer folk and blacks who are most at risk.

or they are detecting more infection in the population that are asymptomatic or mild symtoms. or they are not recording deaths infected with Covid-19 where its secondary to main cause of death. the Germans stand out compared to neighbours, unless they have some therapy they havent told about.

 

[oldboyroy]

I think one thing's for sure....I would guess 90% possibly more have adhered to the rules and if it wasn't for social distancing the NHS would of been overwhelmed many times over and we would of seen patients in corridors being turned away. That hasn't happened due to the government's eventual response however you want to look at it

 

[Machiavelli]

We went with lockdown 2 weeks too late, after herd immunity had beguiled us to take our eyes off the ball.

We needed to have shut down large scale events earlier also.

There are other failures which will come out in the public inquiry of course. Manufacturing should have been repurposed for PPE and ventilators much earlier, and lack of airport quarantine looks to be a significant black mark.


As for case numbers, we have just tested less so that is likely to be a more inaccurate figure for us than for Germany.

Yes, all of this.

 

[Machiavelli]

Many valid points are being made. Of course it's too early too make definitive judgments until this ghastly thing is over. But in terms of the UKs performance, I'd put the following into the mix as being possible characteristics of our own flawed strategy:

1. The herd immunity factor. this was at best a distraction; at worst a major blunder.

2. The 'behavioural science' factor. I've never been convinced that tis should have had weight. There was an assumption (I think) that the British people would get fed up with early lockdown and become non-compliant. Sure we listened to the science - but it was the not really always a science.

3. Having a PM who was fundamentally (at least at first) uncomfortable with lockdown.

I think each of the above three led to slow and/or weak intervention.

I'd finally add the one that we can all agree on: a health system which although potentially is one of the best configured (centralised) on the planet to fight this pandemic, came into the fight weakened by a decade of chronic underfunding.

I think this is an excellent summary. You can also throw in a general lack of preparedness, the slow uptake of WHO advice about how to respond socially to the emerging pandemic, and the failure to act decisively at an economic level to produce tests and PPE.

 

[Bakero]

Around half of all Covid-19 deaths appear to be happening in care homes in some European countries, according to early figures gathered by UK-based academics who are warning that equal efforts must be made to fight the virus in care homes as in the NHS.

Snapshot data from varying official sources shows that in Italy, Spain, France, Ireland and Belgium between 42% and 57% of deaths from the virus have been happening in homes, according to a report by academics based at the London School of Economics.

Full story: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...hs-happen-in-care-homes-data-from-eu-suggests

 

[Mellotron]

Anyone able to explain why, not just in the UK, but in Italy and Spain after lockdown (semi lockdown in UK) we're still seeing 5000 confirmed cases per day? We are old incubation period is up to 14 days. We've been in 'lockdown' for longer than that.

Because people continued to infect one another after lockdown. People are still going to supermarkets. Some people came back to live in homes away from where they work - i.e. moving back in with elderly relatives to look after them. There are many reasons for people continuing to interact.

Also, we are testing more. There is likely a lot less infections now than there was a couple of weeks back. If the amount of tests goes up but the case numbers stay level, that is a good sign.

Given the lags on deaths being counted, and the wildly varied testing, the only thing we can reliably look at whilst in the middle of this is hospitalisation rates, IMO.

 

[Mellotron]

Germany and USA seem to be keeping a higher propirion of the infected alive.

Absolutely impossible to know, given the massively different testing being employed. Every chance we have far more cases than Germany.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Absolutely impossible to know, given the massively different testing being employed. Every chance we have far more cases than Germany.

I appreciate that.

We have figures, and we like to discuss them. I will continue to look at the ratio of declared cases to declared deaths, country by country, and see if I can spot patterns over the coming weeks.

In my job I spend much of my 'research' time (my other time is 'teaching') trying to spot patterns from among the noise of shite research papers in the literature (and most of it is flawed in one or other respect, sometimes several). Much of this involves looking at the same variable derived from many different experiments. Most of the time the various biases are not declared or discernible. Just like now. But you either keep sifting, or you give up. Or just accept whatever old bollocks is spouted in a review article by a 'leader' (in the field) with an agenda. The COVA equivalent of a leader with an agenda is Handcock, whose skills as a politician are inversely proportional to his value as an oracle, almost by definition. And I don't mean that as a criticism (of him as a politician).

 

[Mellotron]

I appreciate that.

We have figures, and we like to discuss them. I will continue to look at the ratio of declared cases to declared deaths, country by country, and see if I can spot patterns over the coming weeks.

In my job I spend much of my 'research' time (my other time is 'teaching') trying to spot patterns from among the noise of shite research papers in the literature (and most of it is flawed in one or other respect, sometimes several). Much of this involves looking at the same variable derived from many different experiments. Most of the time the various biases are not declared or discernible. Just like now. But you either keep sifting, or you give up. Or just accept whatever old bollocks is spouted in a review article by a 'leader' (in the field) with an agenda. The COVA equivalent of a leader with an agenda is Handcock, whose skills as a politician are inversely proportional to his value as an oracle, almost by definition. And I don't mean that as a criticism (of him as a politician).

That's all appreciated and understood.

I only disagree with the statement that the US and Germany seem to be keeping a far higher proportion of infected alive. I don't see what it can be based on with any reasonable level of reliability or certainty.

Given we haven't breached ICU capacity (amongst many, many other factors), I think this statement is very unlikely to be true.

 

[dazzer6666]

Many valid points are being made. Of course it's too early too make definitive judgments until this ghastly thing is over. But in terms of the UKs performance, I'd put the following into the mix as being possible characteristics of our own flawed strategy:

1. The herd immunity factor. this was at best a distraction; at worst a major blunder.

2. The 'behavioural science' factor. I've never been convinced that tis should have had weight. There was an assumption (I think) that the British people would get fed up with early lockdown and become non-compliant. Sure we listened to the science - but it was the not really always a science.

3. Having a PM who was fundamentally (at least at first) uncomfortable with lockdown.

I think each of the above three led to slow and/or weak intervention.

I'd finally add the one that we can all agree on: a health system which although potentially is one of the best configured (centralised) on the planet to fight this pandemic, came into the fight weakened by a decade of chronic underfunding.

But......until we have a vaccine, there isn’t much more we can do than gradually head towards herd immunity....? There is no ‘cure’, only treatment of symptoms and intervention sufficient to allow the body to fight back - and, through lockdown, simply stopping it spreading.

The late timing of lockdown undoubtedly increased the spread enormously (dread to think how many cases Cheltenham led to) but any easing of lockdown will be a calculated punt on developing herd immunity vs not overwhelming the NHS with a spike in cases.

 

[Weststander]

But......until we have a vaccine, there isn’t much more we can do than gradually head towards herd immunity....? There is no ‘cure’, only treatment of symptoms and intervention sufficient to allow the body to fight back - and, through lockdown, simply stopping it spreading.

The late timing of lockdown undoubtedly increased the spread enormously (dread to think how many cases Cheltenham led to) but any easing of lockdown will be a calculated punt on developing herd immunity vs not overwhelming the NHS with a spike in cases.

This.

A vaccine may never come, or won’t be ready and tested for safety in nations doing it properly (Trump plans to ride roughshod over those damn scientists who do that) for another 12 to 18 months. No government, business community or populace is prepared to stay in lockdown for a year or two. At some stage in a month or two, herd immunisation will be used as the route for life resuming to normal. On BBC News this morning, experts felt that’s relatively safe when 65% of a population have had the virus.

 

[Mellotron]

But......until we have a vaccine, there isn’t much more we can do than gradually head towards herd immunity....? There is no ‘cure’, only treatment of symptoms and intervention sufficient to allow the body to fight back - and, through lockdown, simply stopping it spreading.

The late timing of lockdown undoubtedly increased the spread enormously (dread to think how many cases Cheltenham led to) but any easing of lockdown will be a calculated punt on developing herd immunity vs not overwhelming the NHS with a spike in cases.

It may well be that a combination of anti-viral drugs is shown over the coming weeks and months to have a large efficacy in reducing symptoms. However, I suppose that doesn't disagree with anything you have said above.

Close eyes on China (and then Spain & Italy) in the coming weeks, the rate of "second wave" growth will help give us a better idea how many have really had it in China.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Here are some more data that allow current alleged cases to be eyeballed against population density (2014 data - nothing has changed). The stand out anomaly is India - very dense population but few cases - yet.





For clarity I add population density per country (which is how the data at the top are calculated). This is 2006, but again, the relative values haven't changed much.

 

[Bodian]

But......until we have a vaccine, there isn’t much more we can do than gradually head towards herd immunity....? There is no ‘cure’, only treatment of symptoms and intervention sufficient to allow the body to fight back - and, through lockdown, simply stopping it spreading.

The late timing of lockdown undoubtedly increased the spread enormously (dread to think how many cases Cheltenham led to) but any easing of lockdown will be a calculated punt on developing herd immunity vs not overwhelming the NHS with a spike in cases.

This.

A vaccine may never come, or won’t ready and tested for safety in nations doing it properly (Trump plans to ride roughshod over those damn scientists who do that) for another 12 to 18 months. No government, business community or populace is prepared to stay in lockdown for a year or two. At some stage in a month or two, herd immunisation will be used as the route for life resuming to normal. On BBC News this morning, experts felt that’s relatively safe when 65% of a population have had the virus.

That still is the idea really, and they haven't really said it isn't. The whole 'flattening the peak' graphs we were shown at the beginning of lockdown didn't ever say that the virus would go away or be dealt with. It's all about slowing the spread and infections so that the NHS are not overwhelmed all at once. And if we slow it down long enough, a vaccine may arrive before the herd immunity. The chief medical chap said that the models were predicated on there still being spread through people who have to work (and presumably a level of expected ingoring the lockdown requirements) - so they have never pretended that people are not still going to be infected. By keeping the number infected at a lower level at any one time, the number needing hospital treatment are lower at any one time (even though it might be the same number overall), and therefore the NHS can cope - thereby saving lives.

 

[Swansman]

Here are some more data that allow current alleged cases to be eyeballed against population density (2014 data - nothing has changed). The stand out anomaly is India - very dense population but few cases - yet.

View attachment 122166

View attachment 122167

For clarity I add population density per country (which is how the data at the top are calculated). This is 2006, but again, the relative values haven't changed much.

View attachment 122168

Problem with population density figures is that most of Europe's (and probably elsewhere) top 10 biggest countries by size have giant areas where there's not a soul for miles and miles. Take Russia as an example: yes it is obscenely huge (17,098,242 square km) but about 75-80% is living in the European part (17,098,242 square km).

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

This.

A vaccine may never come, or won’t ready and tested for safety in nations doing it properly (Trump plans to ride roughshod over those damn scientists who do that) for another 12 to 18 months. No government, business community or populace is prepared to stay in lockdown for a year or two. At some stage in a month or two, herd immunisation will be used as the route for life resuming to normal. On BBC News this morning, experts felt that’s relatively safe when 65% of a population have had the virus.

Wow, that's shocking. With a UK poulation of 66.6 million, and Germany's current 1 death per 43 cases (BBC data of yesterday), that means that of the 43.3 million brits who will have had the virus (for the 'safe' 65% to be reached), there will have been one million deaths. If we use the UK's current 1 death per 8 cases, that rises to just under five and a half million deaths.

I appreciate the level of uncertainty about total numbers of cases and total numbers of deaths, but these are the only numbers we have. So I don't think that waiting till a million or more people are dead in the UK before releasing our lockdown is a strategy. We must develop a vaccine.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Problem with population density figures is that most of Europe's (and probably elsewhere) top 10 biggest countries by size have giant areas where there's not a soul for miles and miles. Take Russia as an example: yes it is obscenely huge (17,098,242 square km) but about 75-80% is living in the European part (17,098,242 square km).

I agree, but total population per square mile is the best estimate of population density across the board. Also I included one figure with a much more granular population breakdown.

You illustrate the problem with modelling. You can accept there is uncertainty and error and try a model, the refine it as best you can, or you can, er, not bother. I prefer the former.

 

[Swansman]

I agree, but total population per square mile is the best estimate of population density across the board. Also I included one figure with a much more granular population breakdown.

You illustrate the problem with modelling. You can accept there is uncertainty and error and try a model, the refine it as best you can, or you can, er, not bother. I prefer the former.

I wish there was some kind of stat for househould density or something.. would be interesting. Sweden is the 9th most urbanized country in Europe, only behind very small or very densely populated countries, meaning our land mass matter very little.

 

[Weststander]

Wow, that's shocking. With a UK poulation of 66.6 million, and Germany's current 1 death per 43 cases (BBC data of yesterday), that means that of the 43.3 million brits who will have had the virus (for the 'safe' 65% to be reached), there will have been one million deaths. If we use the UK's current 1 death per 8 cases, that rises to just under five and a half million deaths.

I appreciate the level of uncertainty about total numbers of cases and total numbers of deaths, but these are the only numbers we have. So I don't think that waiting till a million or more people are dead in the UK before releasing our lockdown is a strategy. We must develop a vaccine.

Your co-scientists seemed to be saying that if 65% or more of us have had the virus, that’s the nucleus required for restrictions to start be lifted. Inherent in that, that many of us have already had the virus and never knew, or had mild symptoms.

A question, how then should any country act, without a vaccine, to bring life back to normal?

Things are moving quickly elsewhere, without any reference to that 65%. The BBC just reported that construction and manufacturing in Spain are to resume with immediate effect. Hundreds of Spaniards are still dying daily, thousands of new cases reported today.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Your co-scientists seemed to be saying that if 65% or more of us have had the virus, that’s the nucleus required for restrictions to start be lifted. Inherent in that, that many of us have already had the virus and never knew, or had mild symptoms.

A question, how then should any country act, without a vaccine, to bring life back to normal?

Things are moving quickly elsewhere, without any reference to that 65%. The BBC just reported that construction and manufacturing in Spain are to resume with immediate effect. Hundreds of Spaniards are still dying daily, thousands of new cases reported today.

Possibly the corollary for the easing of the lockdown will be a perpetuation of high levels of the disease? I felt uneasy with that news as I wonder if it will prove to be too soon.