Number of Deaths

[Weststander]

Worth a read in relation to care home deaths.

https://off-guardian.org/2020/05/05/covid-19-is-a-statistical-nonsense/

I came to the conclusion ages ago that excess mortality numbers is the only reliable and comparable figure, for all nations. Yes it will includes deaths from other causes eg patients who should’ve sought treatment for other grave illnesses but didn’t, but that’s necessarily part of the human cost of the pandemic.

Some shocking figures for true deaths in Italy and Spain if you delve online into reliable European websites (not UK tabloids), anecdotally, at the regional level and nationally.

A statistician summed it up, that patience is required before we can all make conclusions, by December we’ll know.

 

[Triggaaar]

Some shocking figures for true deaths in Italy and Spain if you delve online into reliable European websites (not UK tabloids), anecdotally, at the regional level and nationally.

While taking note of your point that there's a lot we won't know for some months yet, can you share some of what you've learned while looking at these websites (ie, what are the shocking figures from Italy and Spain, and how do they compare with the UK and France?

 

[dazzer6666]

I came to the conclusion ages ago that excess mortality numbers is the only reliable and comparable figure, for all nations. Yes it will includes deaths from other causes eg patients who should’ve sought treatment for other grave illnesses but didn’t, but that’s necessarily part of the human cost of the pandemic.

Some shocking figures for true deaths in Italy and Spain if you delve online into reliable European websites (not UK tabloids), anecdotally, at the regional level and nationally.

A statistician summed it up, that patience is required before we can all make conclusions, by December we’ll know.

Indeed.....still seems to be lost on the headline-makers though...... 'worst nation in Europe' etc. In my regular chats with my Director in Spain, she's relayed some of the local chatter and the care home situation in particular sounds dire - unconfirmed talk of some being found completely abandoned for example.

Was listening to someone on the radio last night (can't recall who it was) who said he expected to see a levelling out to some extent of 'average'' deaths once the pandemic passes (essentially saying that a number of deaths have been accelerated through COVID, but would have happened within a reasonable time period anyway, so actual deaths post-pandemic will be lower than average). It's a horrible, morbid thing to think about but will be interesting to see if that happens.

 

[beorhthelm]

Was listening to someone on the radio last night (can't recall who it was) who said he expected to see a levelling out to some extent of 'average'' deaths once the pandemic passes (essentially saying that a number of deaths have been accelerated through COVID, but would have happened within a reasonable time period anyway, so actual deaths post-pandemic will be lower than average). It's a horrible, morbid thing to think about but will be interesting to see if that happens.

i read somewhere average life expectancy is 5 months in care homes, though they probably refer to hospices (seem to be lumped together).

 

[BLOCK F]

Worth a read in relation to care home deaths.

https://off-guardian.org/2020/05/05/covid-19-is-a-statistical-nonsense/

As you say, interesting re the recording of causes of death in care homes, but many of the comments following the article were true 'fruitloop'.
As Weststander has stated, excess mortality figures at the end of all this, will surely be the only way to gauge the likely extent of deaths due to Coronavirus, and, of course, that won't be entirely accurate either.

 

[dazzer6666]

As you say, interesting re the recording of causes of death in care homes, but many of the comments following the article were true 'fruitloop'.
As Weststander has stated, excess mortality figures at the end of all this, will surely be the only way to gauge the likely extent of deaths due to Coronavirus, and, of course, that won't be entirely accurate either.

Agreed (on all points)

 

[cloud]

The ONS site goes into more detail by area. Sorry if fixtures.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisatio...FBcW_a49ebmqjqTNa_aXqXmY0nxP25NU_iG9TwYQodWGQ

 

[Weststander]

While taking note of your point that there's a lot we won't know for some months yet, can you share some of what you've learned while looking at these websites (ie, what are the shocking figures from Italy and Spain, and how do they compare with the UK and France?

Hi,
Here’s just a snippet found in ten minutes via reputable media sources such as C4, Reuters and the WSJ. Some regional stories here as examples cover just one month’s stats, with astonishing under-counting going on. They in turn gleaned the data from Italian and Spanish sources.

The only criticism I can see of the French stat’s is that do not include home deaths.

The French, Belgium and UK stats otherwise appear very comprehensive, albeit with a long-ish delay on our ONS stats.

Due to the widely differing methodologies, excess deaths can be the only reliable measure when it comes to comparisons. Epidemiologists point out that in that work, they’ll take into account different population sizes eg UK and France 67m, Italy 60m and Spain 47m.

 

[Triggaaar]

Hi,
Here’s just a snippet found in ten minutes via reputable media sources such as C4, Reuters and the WSJ. Some regional stories here as examples cover just one month’s stats, with astonishing under-counting going on. They in turn gleaned the data from Italian and Spanish sources.

The only criticism I can see of the French stat’s is that do not include home deaths.

The French, Belgium and UK stats otherwise appear very comprehensive, albeit with a long-ish delay on our ONS stats.

Due to the widely differing methodologies, excess deaths can be the only reliable measure when it comes to comparisons. Epidemiologists point out that in that work, they’ll take into account different population sizes eg UK and France 67m, Italy 60m and Spain 47m.

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Thanks. Sobering stuff.

 

[Swansman]

Its not certain that all those extra Italian deaths are Covid-19 though. Some of them might just be a random variation from year to year, but more significantly a pretty big number of those extra deaths could be from other diseases that would normally be treated rapidly but are now delayed because of the virus stealing resources or people being afraid to seek help in time. Also patients suffering from non-Covid 19 pneumonia likely have less access to help than they usually would.

Surely its likely the Italian Covid-19 numbers are underestimated but the difference from official numbers may not be as big as it could seem. Arguably though a lot of these other deaths could also be counted as part of the pandemic, regardless if they died from the virus or not.

 

[Weststander]

Its not certain that all those extra Italian deaths are Covid-19 though. Some of them might just be a random variation from year to year, but more significantly a pretty big number of those extra deaths could be from other diseases that would normally be treated rapidly but are now delayed because of the virus stealing resources or people being afraid to seek help in time. Also patients suffering from non-Covid 19 pneumonia likely have less access to help than they usually would.

Surely its likely the Italian Covid-19 numbers are underestimated but the difference from official numbers may not be as big as it could seem. Arguably though a lot of these other deaths could also be counted as part of the pandemic, regardless if they died from the virus or not.

That’s the point of excess death stats in or after a pandemic. It necessarily includes excess deaths that might or might not have been from covid, from failing to go to hospital over something else also serious from fear, possibly from suicide, from not getting treated properly due to resources channelled to covid19 patients.

Otherwise statisticians and epidemiologists would be forever going round in circles, unable to reach conclusions on numbers, never able to make comparison between provinces or nations.

https://medium.economist.com/measuring-the-true-toll-of-the-pandemic-fa7e003b3ff4?gi=70866e3a5b7f

 

[Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo]

i read somewhere average life expectancy is 5 months in care homes, though they probably refer to hospices (seem to be lumped together).

Grouping care homes and hospices together is not helpful as they provide completely different services and life expectancy between the two settings is vastly different. They greying of the two areas comes from the fact that some people in care homes will be receiving hospice care.

Someone under hospice care has a life limiting illness and normally has a life expectancy of less than 12 months. For actual stays in a hospice the average length of stay on the in patient unit is around 2 weeks, with around 25% of stays actually for 5 days or less. Approx 1/3 of hospice patients are discharged (be that to their home or another care setting).

I believe in care homes the average length of stay is over a year possibly even two years. This link seems to suggest it's actually over two years, 26 months (https://www.parliament.uk/business/...ents/written-question/Commons/2017-09-05/8937), which is backed up by this (https://eprints.lse.ac.uk/33895/1/dp2769.pdf). Although that data is from 2017 and 2010 respectively.

 

[Justice]

What the government aren’t telling us is Covid 19 never leaves your body after infection. You may not feel any symptoms yet you are still a carrier. A college professor we know has had it for seven weeks and counting.

 

[Triggaaar]

What the government aren’t telling us is Covid 19 never leaves your body after infection.

Is that different to all the other viruses we fight off over the course of our lives?

 

[Mellotron]

What the government aren’t telling us is Covid 19 never leaves your body after infection. You may not feel any symptoms yet you are still a carrier. A college professor we know has had it for seven weeks and counting.

I'm very much hopeful that the antibodies stay with me if I've had it - as I suspect - in Mid March. That's usually how viruses work.

 

[Steve in Japan]

I am mystified as to why the UK is having such a large number of excess deaths compared with Japan, where I was previously based. There have been a series of "lockdowns" in Japan, but no stricter than here and indeed lots of businesses remain open. They have 120 million people most of whom are densely packed between Tokyo and Osaka, and a rapidly ageing population. And they have reported about 15,000 cases and 556 deaths.

So what are the possible factors?

It's not the same virus, or rather it has mutated?
The use of masks? (most) Japanese are very ready to use these.
They are (generally) not as obese as Westerners.

I know it's not just Japan, you could say Asia has generally done well compared with Europe. So far, of course.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Please ignore. I will repost the correct attachments shortly

 

[RossyG]

I am mystified as to why the UK is having such a large number of excess deaths compared with Japan, where I was previously based.

Would you say, generally speaking and in your experience, that the Japanese have a higher standard of hygiene/cleanliness than we do?

 

[Mellotron]

I am mystified as to why the UK is having such a large number of excess deaths compared with Japan, where I was previously based. There have been a series of "lockdowns" in Japan, but no stricter than here and indeed lots of businesses remain open. They have 120 million people most of whom are densely packed between Tokyo and Osaka, and a rapidly ageing population. And they have reported about 15,000 cases and 556 deaths.

So what are the possible factors?

It's not the same virus, or rather it has mutated?
The use of masks? (most) Japanese are very ready to use these.
They are (generally) not as obese as Westerners.

I know it's not just Japan, you could say Asia has generally done well compared with Europe. So far, of course.

Suspect the voluntary mass use of masks is a big one.

 

[Steve in Japan]

Would you say, generally speaking and in your experience, that the Japanese have a higher standard of hygiene/cleanliness than we do?

That's a tough one but probably not materially different. But they are certainly bigger users of hand sanitisers due to prior experiences with SARS etc.