[Football] Newly Promoted Premier League Teams

[Johnny RoastBeef]

With all the negativity on here lately, I decided to try to find some solace by taking a look at the stats for all the newly promoted teams in Premier League history, to see how we fair and find some clues about our possible fate.

Since the Premier League was reduced to 20 teams in the 95/96 season, there have been 64 teams promoted from the Championship (Not including ourselves, Huddersfield and Newcastle this season).

Of those 64 teams,

53 have been relegated again at some point, 31 within 1 season. That stat means there is a 48% probability that any newly promoted will go straight back down.

So for those saying its a coin toss if we stay up from this position, the stats say it always was.

Since 1995 Only 5 teams have managed to get promoted into the Premier League and remain in the top flight for 10 consecutive years.Thats less than an 8% chance. The lucky few who achieved this are Fulham, Middlesborough, Blackburn, Bolton and Man City. Of those 5 only City, backed by Sheikh Mansour's Billions still remain.

Stoke will complete their 10th consecutive season in May, but may not survive the drop.

The average league position of a newly promoted team is 16th. For those teams that do make it to a second year, the average final league position for the second season is 13th.

Newly promoted team last just 3 seasons on average. The actual average is just 2.83 seasons, before they are relegated again. So enjoy it while it lasts.

Teams that lasted only 1 season had,
an average goals scored per match of 0.99 goals
an average goals conceded per match of 1.78 goals
an average goal diference per match of -0.789

Our current stats, after 25 games, are,
an average goals scored per match 0.72
an average goals conceded per match 1.36
an average goal diference per match -0.64

Teams that survived that first season had,
an average goals scored per match of 1.15 goals
an average goals conceded per match of 1.47 goals
an average goal diference per match of -0.322

Teams that managed to stay up for 5 or more seasons, before being relegated, had a first season average of,
an average goals scored per match of 1.22 goals
an average goals conceded per match of 1.41 goals
an average goal diference per match of -0.193

The most goals conceded by a newly promoted team was 89 by Derby in the 07/08 season
They also registered the lowest goals scored record the same seaon, just 20 goals all season.
We need to score 3 more goals this season to avoid that dubious record.

Considering Chris would have been aware of these stats and knew that we would be short of attacking firepower after the Summer transfer window, I think he did the right thing in making us as defensively tight as possible. No point chasing goals and sacrificing our decent Goal Difference stats.

Looking at the goals we have conceded so far this season, I fear our defending set pieces, more than our goal scoring, will be what upsets Chris the most. We were unable to get more goals because we lacked enough quality attacking players, and there was nothing Chris could do about that until January. But our defending set pieces has been a problem that he has still not addressed and it looks like this may prove to be what hurts us the most. Without those set piece goals we would have one of the top 3 defensive records in the league for goals against.

That said, Looking at the other teams in this season's relegation battle, I still believe we are not one of the worst 3 teams. And we can look forward to being one of 52% of all the promoted teams in Premier League history who make it to a second season.

 

[The_Viper]

Great stats! I'm not sure how you came to the conclusion that we can look forward to staying up though, those stats show the exact opposite

 

[Stato]

Top work on the stats front. I share the frustrations of many on here when we score a goal and then invite teams to come at us, but am trying to remember that this may not be completely our choice. We are playing against far better teams than we have been for the last few seasons. Whereas we were probably the Championship equivalent of an Everton or West Ham in terms of budget, we are now the Premier League equivalent of a Burton or Barnsley. For us this season, survival would be a great achievement. It may not be pretty. After a few seasons of great football, it may actually be pretty depressing, but realising the size of the challenge is key to appreciating every small success.

I liked Danny Murphy's comment on MOTD this week. 'Brighton? They'll keep on fighting.' It may not always be what we'd like to be watching, but I know what he means and am pleased that we have a squad and a manager that will take this approach. If we survive this season, it will be because of the battling quality that means that, even when multiple goals down against one of the top six, every player will give everything to every challenge and won't ever give up and say it doesn't matter.

 

[Weststander]

With all the negativity on here lately, I decided to try to find some solace by taking a look at the stats for all the newly promoted teams in Premier League history, to see how we fair and find some clues about our possible fate.

Since the Premier League was reduced to 20 teams in the 95/96 season, there have been 64 teams promoted from the Championship (Not including ourselves, Huddersfield and Newcastle this season).

Of those 64 teams,

53 have been relegated again at some point, 31 within 1 season. That stat means there is a 48% probability that any newly promoted will go straight back down.

So for those saying its a coin toss if we stay up from this position, the stats say it always was.

Since 1995 Only 5 teams have managed to get promoted into the Premier League and remain in the top flight for 10 consecutive years.Thats less than an 8% chance. The lucky few who achieved this are Fulham, Middlesborough, Blackburn, Bolton and Man City. Of those 5 only City, backed by Sheikh Mansour's Billions still remain.

Stoke will complete their 10th consecutive season in May, but may not survive the drop.

The average league position of a newly promoted team is 16th. For those teams that do make it to a second year, the average final league position for the second season is 13th.

Newly promoted team last just 3 seasons on average. The actual average is just 2.83 seasons, before they are relegated again. So enjoy it while it lasts.

Teams that lasted only 1 season had,
an average goals scored per match of 0.99 goals
an average goals conceded per match of 1.78 goals
an average goal diference per match of -0.789

Our current stats, after 25 games, are,
an average goals scored per match 0.72
an average goals conceded per match 1.36
an average goal diference per match -0.64

Teams that survived that first season had,
an average goals scored per match of 1.15 goals
an average goals conceded per match of 1.47 goals
an average goal diference per match of -0.322

Teams that managed to stay up for 5 or more seasons, before being relegated, had a first season average of,
an average goals scored per match of 1.22 goals
an average goals conceded per match of 1.41 goals
an average goal diference per match of -0.193

The most goals conceded by a newly promoted team was 89 by Derby in the 07/08 season
They also registered the lowest goals scored record the same seaon, just 20 goals all season.
We need to score 3 more goals this season to avoid that dubious record.

Considering Chris would have been aware of these stats and knew that we would be short of attacking firepower after the Summer transfer window, I think he did the right thing in making us as defensively tight as possible. No point chasing goals and sacrificing our decent Goal Difference stats.

Looking at the goals we have conceded so far this season, I fear our defending set pieces, more than our goal scoring, will be what upsets Chris the most. We were unable to get more goals because we lacked enough quality attacking players, and there was nothing Chris could do about that until January. But our defending set pieces has been a problem that he has still not addressed and it looks like this may prove to be what hurts us the most. Without those set piece goals we would have one of the top 3 defensive records in the league for goals against.

That said, Looking at the other teams in this season's relegation battle, I still believe we are not one of the worst 3 teams. And we can look forward to being one of 52% of all the promoted teams in Premier League history who make it to a second season.

I agree with lots of your own comments.

But have you seen Brighton's final 2 months fixture list?

Brighton simply need wins (plural) as soon as possible, starting with tomorrow.

 

[Johnny RoastBeef]

I agree with lots of your own comments.

But have you seen Brighton's final 2 months fixture list?

Brighton simply need wins (plural) as soon as possible, starting with tomorrow.

I have and I have also seen those of the teams around us, ours is no worse than most of theirs.

 

[Coldeanseagull]

I'd like to give you a thumbs up for this thread, but I can't.
Your avatar scares me

 

[Weststander]

I have and I have also seen those of the teams around us, ours is no worse than most of theirs.

View attachment 93749

In the final 2 months, Palace, Swansea and Stoke have several winnable matches.

Looks tough for the 3 promoted clubs, especially considering we/they have inferior squads.

But hopefully Ulloa and Locadia enable us to do 'a Palace' (this time last year they looked doomed).

By 5pm tomorrow we will know a lot more.

 

[Johnny RoastBeef]

In the final 2 months, Palace, Swansea and Stoke have several winnable matches.

Looks tough for the 3 promoted clubs, especially considering we/they have inferior squads.

But hopefully Ulloa and Locadia enable us to do 'a Palace' (this time last year they looked doomed).

By 5pm tomorrow we will know a lot more.

I doubt their fans are looking at it that way. We all have 4 or 5 matches left that we feel will make or break our season. Fortunately ours come soonest so if we win them we can put massive pressure on the other teams to try and catch us. Big 'if' though.

 

[Weststander]

I doubt their fans are looking at it that way. We all have 4 or 5 matches left that we feel will make or break our season. Fortunately ours come soonest so if we win them we can put massive pressure on the other teams to try and catch us. Big 'if' though.

We all hope that's the way it pans out.

The first of those 4 or 5 is tomorrow. Shirley a proverbial must-win, in light of our results against the mega spend clubs.

 

[The_Viper]

We all hope that's the way it pans out.

The first of those 4 or 5 is tomorrow. Shirley a proverbial must-win, in light of our results against the mega spend clubs.

It is a must win, in order to come out of these 4 games with a chance we need 7 points minimum. We got 1 at Saints and 3 tomorrow should be expected, same for the Swans at home.

 

[Weststander]

It is a must win, in order to come out of these 4 games with a chance we need 7 points minimum. We got 1 at Saints and 3 tomorrow should be expected, same for the Swans at home.

IF we drew against WHU and lost the Swansea match, just as a hypothesis, would you think we've had it?

 

[The_Viper]

IF we drew against WHU and lost the Swansea match, just as a hypothesis, would you think we've had it?

We play Stoke in between so it'd depend.

 

[BadFish]

These stats about the small amount of teams that stay in the premier league for a decent length of time is interesting. It certainly looks like outside the big six there are not many teams that can be confident of stay in the Premier League long term. So this is out reality, this is our level.

I always thought we were a second tier club and used to bang on about this in the dark days. We have a decent catchment area and a loyal following. All we were missing was a ground .

Now we have the Amex I think we have to redefine our level, no-one really knows what it is. These stats certainly suggest that our level is going to be somewhere between the lower Premier League and the Championship. Without a huge expansion of the Amex this is where we are at.

The important thing is to accept this and cut our cloth accordingly. From what i can see the club is working within this reality, keeping things consistent, not panicking and not gambling everything on staying in the Premier League. If we go back to the Championship we will be one of the stronger clubs competing once again for promotion.

 

[basque seagull]

With all the negativity on here lately, I decided to try to find some solace by taking a look at the stats for all the newly promoted teams in Premier League history, to see how we fair and find some clues about our possible fate.

Since the Premier League was reduced to 20 teams in the 95/96 season, there have been 64 teams promoted from the Championship (Not including ourselves, Huddersfield and Newcastle this season).

Of those 64 teams,

53 have been relegated again at some point, 31 within 1 season. That stat means there is a 48% probability that any newly promoted will go straight back down.

So for those saying its a coin toss if we stay up from this position, the stats say it always was.

Since 1995 Only 5 teams have managed to get promoted into the Premier League and remain in the top flight for 10 consecutive years.Thats less than an 8% chance. The lucky few who achieved this are Fulham, Middlesborough, Blackburn, Bolton and Man City. Of those 5 only City, backed by Sheikh Mansour's Billions still remain.

Stoke will complete their 10th consecutive season in May, but may not survive the drop.

The average league position of a newly promoted team is 16th. For those teams that do make it to a second year, the average final league position for the second season is 13th.

Newly promoted team last just 3 seasons on average. The actual average is just 2.83 seasons, before they are relegated again. So enjoy it while it lasts.

Teams that lasted only 1 season had,
an average goals scored per match of 0.99 goals
an average goals conceded per match of 1.78 goals
an average goal diference per match of -0.789

Our current stats, after 25 games, are,
an average goals scored per match 0.72
an average goals conceded per match 1.36
an average goal diference per match -0.64

Teams that survived that first season had,
an average goals scored per match of 1.15 goals
an average goals conceded per match of 1.47 goals
an average goal diference per match of -0.322

Teams that managed to stay up for 5 or more seasons, before being relegated, had a first season average of,
an average goals scored per match of 1.22 goals
an average goals conceded per match of 1.41 goals
an average goal diference per match of -0.193

The most goals conceded by a newly promoted team was 89 by Derby in the 07/08 season
They also registered the lowest goals scored record the same seaon, just 20 goals all season.
We need to score 3 more goals this season to avoid that dubious record.

Considering Chris would have been aware of these stats and knew that we would be short of attacking firepower after the Summer transfer window, I think he did the right thing in making us as defensively tight as possible. No point chasing goals and sacrificing our decent Goal Difference stats.

Looking at the goals we have conceded so far this season, I fear our defending set pieces, more than our goal scoring, will be what upsets Chris the most. We were unable to get more goals because we lacked enough quality attacking players, and there was nothing Chris could do about that until January. But our defending set pieces has been a problem that he has still not addressed and it looks like this may prove to be what hurts us the most. Without those set piece goals we would have one of the top 3 defensive records in the league for goals against.

That said, Looking at the other teams in this season's relegation battle, I still believe we are not one of the worst 3 teams. And we can look forward to being one of 52% of all the promoted teams in Premier League history who make it to a second season.

Good post! Puts into perspective!

Enviado desde mi MI 5 mediante Tapatalk

 

[Stumpy Tim]

Those fixtures actually fill me with hope. Huddersfield are not going to get many points in their last 4 games!

Swansea v Stoke on the last day

 

[Perkino]

I agree with lots of your own comments.

But have you seen Brighton's final 2 months fixture list?

Brighton simply need wins (plural) as soon as possible, starting with tomorrow.

You mean a group of teams who may well have nothing to play for.

Leicester won something like 5 of their last 7 to stay up, and 3 wins in a row would change everything. We are exactly where I expected us to be, in a relegation battle needing to score more goals

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

West Ham have a pretty tricky run in.

Beat them today and they could be in in the mix for relegation at the end.

 

[Johnny RoastBeef]

West Ham have a pretty tricky run in.

Beat them today and they could be in in the mix for relegation at the end.

You're right, I have omitted them from my reckoning but maybe I should have included them. Their support seems to be reverting to type and a toxic vibe is beggining to emminate from East London once more.

Today's Sun says their fans are planning protests against their owners, but not until next month.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/football/5489516/west-ham-fans-march-protest-at-board/

The more turmoil the better for their chances of getting drawn into relegation scrap.

 

[Johnny RoastBeef]

These stats about the small amount of teams that stay in the premier league for a decent length of time is interesting. It certainly looks like outside the big six there are not many teams that can be confident of stay in the Premier League long term. So this is out reality, this is our level.

I always thought we were a second tier club and used to bang on about this in the dark days. We have a decent catchment area and a loyal following. All we were missing was a ground .

Now we have the Amex I think we have to redefine our level, no-one really knows what it is. These stats certainly suggest that our level is going to be somewhere between the lower Premier League and the Championship. Without a huge expansion of the Amex this is where we are at.

The important thing is to accept this and cut our cloth accordingly. From what i can see the club is working within this reality, keeping things consistent, not panicking and not gambling everything on staying in the Premier League. If we go back to the Championship we will be one of the stronger clubs competing once again for promotion.

Arsenal, Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool, Man Utd, Spurs are the only clubs to contest every Premier League season. Add Man City to that lot and you have a group who are pretty immune to the risk of relegation in the current era.

They are the ones who can afford the big wages, which is what I feel is the defining factor. All premier league teams now can afford massive transfer fees but not all can afford to pay the superstar salaries.

Any other team, out of that group of 7, will have to face relegation at some point.

As a knock on effect of the huge amount of cash, we are starting to see a change in the dynamic of Premier League football. Smaller Clubs can now afford top quality players, but not quite afford the most prized skilful ones.

This means the big budgets of the smaller clubs are being spent on hard working players who will understand and carry out a manager's defensive systems, while the top clubs, paying the massive wages, Hoover up all the box office talent.

In my opinion, this has created the current park the bus style we are seeing more and more often in Premier League football. If we are not careful the influx of money will be what kills the thing that makes English football special.

The same thing happened to Italian football in the 1990s when it was the most important league in the world. English football should take note and not kill the Golden Goose with overly negative tactics.

 

[GT49er]

Since 1995 Only 5 teams have managed to get promoted into the Premier League and remain in the top flight for 10 consecutive years.Thats less than an 8% chance. The lucky few who achieved this are Fulham, Middlesborough, Blackburn, Bolton and Man City. Of those 5 only City, backed by Sheikh Mansour's Billions still remain.

What's also significant about those five is that they were all top flight 'Old Boys' - they'd been in the top division for considerable periods previously, so to some extent the other clubs treated them as returners rather than newbies. Newbies, on the other hand - Swindon, Barnsley and Reading for example, and going back a way, Carlisle, Orient, Northampton - tend to get roughed up much more ruthlessly. And of course, we are distinctly regarded as newbies. The 'We should be (automatically) beating teams like little Brighton' factor comes into play.

I still think we will stay up, but if we lose to Wet Sham today, my confidence will suffer a distinct wobble!