[Football] Newly Promoted Premier League Teams

[MrSnuggles]

With all the negativity on here lately, I decided to try to find some solace by taking a look at the stats for all the newly promoted teams in Premier League history, to see how we fair and find some clues about our possible fate.

Since the Premier League was reduced to 20 teams in the 95/96 season, there have been 64 teams promoted from the Championship (Not including ourselves, Huddersfield and Newcastle this season).

Of those 64 teams,

53 have been relegated again at some point, 31 within 1 season. That stat means there is a 48% probability that any newly promoted will go straight back down.

So for those saying its a coin toss if we stay up from this position, the stats say it always was.

Since 1995 Only 5 teams have managed to get promoted into the Premier League and remain in the top flight for 10 consecutive years.Thats less than an 8% chance. The lucky few who achieved this are Fulham, Middlesborough, Blackburn, Bolton and Man City. Of those 5 only City, backed by Sheikh Mansour's Billions still remain.

Stoke will complete their 10th consecutive season in May, but may not survive the drop.

The average league position of a newly promoted team is 16th. For those teams that do make it to a second year, the average final league position for the second season is 13th.

Newly promoted team last just 3 seasons on average. The actual average is just 2.83 seasons, before they are relegated again. So enjoy it while it lasts.

Teams that lasted only 1 season had,
an average goals scored per match of 0.99 goals
an average goals conceded per match of 1.78 goals
an average goal diference per match of -0.789

Our current stats, after 25 games, are,
an average goals scored per match 0.72
an average goals conceded per match 1.36
an average goal diference per match -0.64

Teams that survived that first season had,
an average goals scored per match of 1.15 goals
an average goals conceded per match of 1.47 goals
an average goal diference per match of -0.322

Teams that managed to stay up for 5 or more seasons, before being relegated, had a first season average of,
an average goals scored per match of 1.22 goals
an average goals conceded per match of 1.41 goals
an average goal diference per match of -0.193

The most goals conceded by a newly promoted team was 89 by Derby in the 07/08 season
They also registered the lowest goals scored record the same seaon, just 20 goals all season.
We need to score 3 more goals this season to avoid that dubious record.

Considering Chris would have been aware of these stats and knew that we would be short of attacking firepower after the Summer transfer window, I think he did the right thing in making us as defensively tight as possible. No point chasing goals and sacrificing our decent Goal Difference stats.

Looking at the goals we have conceded so far this season, I fear our defending set pieces, more than our goal scoring, will be what upsets Chris the most. We were unable to get more goals because we lacked enough quality attacking players, and there was nothing Chris could do about that until January. But our defending set pieces has been a problem that he has still not addressed and it looks like this may prove to be what hurts us the most. Without those set piece goals we would have one of the top 3 defensive records in the league for goals against.

That said, Looking at the other teams in this season's relegation battle, I still believe we are not one of the worst 3 teams. And we can look forward to being one of 52% of all the promoted teams in Premier League history who make it to a second season.

Good work. Always was going to be a struggle but the team are still very much in with a fighting chance. A few more goals and a tightening up on set pieces and we could easily achieve mid table

 

[Right Back]

Looks like Southampton are in big trouble. Only 2 home games left outside of the top 6.