New strain of Covid?

[Notters]

Another vote for "pretty sure this is wrong". Think you're talking about stage 1 trials. Stage 3 calculates efficiency.

For argument sake, they give 100 people the vaccine and 100 people a placebo. If 10 people in the placebo group catch covid and only 1 person in the vaccine group catches covid it's 90% efficient? Someone cleverer than me can correct the maths, but that's the jist.

Yes, this is definitely right - I asked the doctor on the novavax trial that I and several others are on and the rate of approval essentially will depend on the amount of coronavirus knocking around. The more there is the quicker they'll be able to prove the efficacy.

Obviously they are still looking out for adverse reactions as well.

Having had no reaction whatsover I suspect I'm on the placebo, but hopefully not.

 

[Notters]

I've read on more than one occasion that if 'we all stand still for two weeks, the virus will die off.

Two weeks of proper self isolating lockdown - gotta be worth a go hasn't it?

Definitely true but possible? I doubt it, as there would be a % of people who ignored it and a % of essential services (police, etc.) that would keep working.

 

[Poojah]

I know this is in a very different vain to what I posted the other day, but having slept on it for 48 hours, here's a bit of positivity, for balance: Wishful thinking perhaps but I don't think it's a simple as that, experts are saying it could take years before the virus changes enough that it doesn't respond to vaccines.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/coronavirus-britain-variant.html

It doesn't sounds like a case of one random mutation and all of a sudden the vaccines are useless, it sounds like you'll see the virus drift further and further away from it's initial form until the vaccines no longer work. Furthermore, (and I can't find my source for this at the moment) I remember reading somewhere that the variant likely developed in a person with a severely compromised immune system. Surely, as the vulnerable are vaccinate, such dramatic mutations become less and less possible. The chance is still very much there to break the lockdown cycle come spring, even if these next two months or so are going to be particularly rough.

Very good thread here (although very sciencey) on why it's not time to panic, but instead plan how we will update the vaccines when the need arises (and the vaccine tech we have is VERY adaptable):

https://twitter.com/deeptabhattacha/status/1340381203623411712?s=20

Hold the nerve. The immediacy of the situation has changed, but the roadmap out of the pandemic, as far as I'm concerned, has not.

That's a great post, and more grounded in expert opinion than mine (which was a tad melodramatic, reading it back). I much prefer your outlook on this, so I hope you're blummin' right.

 

[CHAPPERS]

there would be a % of people who ignored it .

Well at some point these wankers will have to toe the line won't they.

And I hate saying that.

(Cor that sounds angry doesn't it)

 

[Bozza]

I've read on more than one occasion that if 'we all stand still for two weeks, the virus will die off.

Two weeks of proper self isolating lockdown - gotta be worth a go hasn't it?

Not everyone can stand still - essential services are far broader than most of us consider, but, yes a return to Lockdown 1.0, including the unfortunate closure of face-to-face education feels like the most pragmatic approach if the 70% increase in transmission proves to be vaguely accurate.

It will be tough, and we know lockdowns come at great cost but what other options are there that give those who fall sick, Covid-related or otherwise, the best chance of receiving the care they need and deserve?

 

[cloud]

The countries who have now banned flights from the UK: https://electionmaps.uk/uk-flight-bans

 

[Motogull]

Not everyone can stand still - essential services are far broader than most of us consider, but, yes a return to Lockdown 1.0, including the unfortunate closure of face-to-face education feels like the most pragmatic approach if the 70% increase in transmission proves to be vaguely accurate.

It will be tough, and we know lockdowns come at great cost but what other options are there that give those who fall sick, Covid-related or otherwise, the best chance of receiving the care they need and deserve?

I know, and I also know it would require an awful lot of global planning.

 

[Gazwag]

Well at some point these wankers will have to toe the line won't they.

And I hate saying that.

(Cor that sounds angry doesn't it)

British people are proving too often that there is a high proportion who are too selfish to even consider this to happen

 

[nicko31]

I've read on more than one occasion that if 'we all stand still for two weeks, the virus will die off.

Two weeks of proper self isolating lockdown - gotta be worth a go hasn't it?

Well not sure about die off but it would certainly take the momentum out of it

If you recall back in October they were supposed to have a 2 week circuit break and extended half term. Johnson bottled it and instead we had a 4 week lock down in November

We should be doing exactly the same over the 2 week Christmas period. If we'd done both to coinside with school holidays and acted as 4 nations we would be in with a fighting chance

With Johnson there is No leadership, No guts, No clarity (most of public confused)

On top of that we face chaos in the New Year around our ports, all out of personal choice.

 

[TomandJerry]

High confidence' new variant spreads more easily

The government's New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag) has upgraded its confidence that the new variant spreads more easily, the group's chair has said.

Prof Peter Horby told a Science Media Centre briefing: "We now have high confidence that this variant does have a transmission advantage over other virus variants that are currently in the UK."

Minutes from a meeting on Friday said the group, which advises the UK government, had "moderate confidence" in this.

Another Nervtag member, Prof Neil Ferguson, from Imperial College London, told the briefing there was strong evidence the new variant is 50% more transmissible than the previous virus.

He also said there was a "hint" the new variant infects children more.

"There are other epidemiologically interesting trends with the virus, there is a hint that it has a higher propensity to infect children... but we haven't established any sort of causality on that, but we can see that in the data," he said.



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[beorhthelm]

...
Another Nervtag member, Prof Neil Ferguson, from Imperial College London, told the briefing there was strong evidence the new variant is 50% more transmissible than the previous virus.

He also said there was a "hint" the new variant infects children more.

"There are other epidemiologically interesting trends with the virus, there is a hint that it has a higher propensity to infect children... but we haven't established any sort of causality on that, but we can see that in the data," he said.

maybe he shouldnt ing say anything until a causality has been shown? massively irresponsible again from Ferguson.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

maybe he shouldnt ing say anything until a causality has been shown? massively irresponsible again from Ferguson.

He’s been supplying the modelling again I see

He was on the radio saying lock down till April fully with no outs for anyone.

Unless you want to visit your girlfriend of course?

He was a worse offender than Cummings.

 

[TomandJerry]

Covid-19 case rates are now above 1,000 cases per 100,000 people in eight local areas of the UK, PA reports.

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[Get It Forward Stephens]

 

[loz]

He’s been supplying the modelling again I see

He was on the radio saying lock down till April fully with no outs for anyone.

Unless you want to visit your girlfriend of course?

He was a worse offender than Cummings.

They really have no idea how real life functions these people.

So we all stay indoors for 4 months...Except for.

Care home staff.
Hospital staff.
warehouse staff
Delivery drivers,
Bus companies
Train drivers
Sewage workers
Electric companies
Gas workers
Telecom workers
food processors
Slaughter house workers
And that's just for starters, add to that all the people in manufacturing who supply / repair goods for the companies above.

It makes me so angry that these so called intelligent people seem to forget we cant all work from home.

 

[The Fits]

They really have no idea how real life functions these people.

So we all stay indoors for 4 months...Except for.

Care home staff.
Hospital staff.
warehouse staff
Delivery drivers,
Bus companies
Train drivers
Sewage workers
Electric companies
Gas workers
Telecom workers
food processors
Slaughter house workers
And that's just for starters, add to that all the people in manufacturing who supply / repair goods for the companies above.

It makes me so angry that these so called intelligent people seem to forget we cant all work from home.

I was doing some driving related to work over the last week.
Every county, area you drive through the motorway signs say 'Bristol, Drive Less', 'Warks, Drive Less' or similar. I spent the entire journey's in traffic.
These people aren't on Sunday drives, or going on holiday. They're people doing what they have to do. I went to a service station and there was a traffic jam getting in to it.
These lockdowns mean nothing because MOST of us have to work out of our homes.

 

[Stockholm Syndrome]

View attachment 131647

Just read an interview with the Tegnell bloke here in the frozen north. He claims that authorities in Sweden don’t know if the new strand is present in the country, and that’s because they haven’t been looking for it...

 

[darkwolf666]

I was doing some driving related to work over the last week.
Every county, area you drive through the motorway signs say 'Bristol, Drive Less', 'Warks, Drive Less' or similar. I spent the entire journey's in traffic.
These people aren't on Sunday drives, or going on holiday. They're people doing what they have to do. I went to a service station and there was a traffic jam getting in to it.
These lockdowns mean nothing because MOST of us have to work out of our homes.

And yet during the first “full lockdown” the roads were empty.

I could take 15 minutes off the journey to Maidstone hospital and see next to no cars, the odd white van and supermarket delivery vehicles only! I went two weeks ago and you wouldn’t have known there was any mention of a work from home if you can directive.

Something has clearly changed...

 

[beorhthelm]

And yet during the first “full lockdown” the roads were empty.

I could take 15 minutes off the journey to Maidstone hospital and see next to no cars, the odd white van and supermarket delivery vehicles only! I went two weeks ago and you wouldn’t have known there was any mention of a work from home if you can directive.

Something has clearly changed...

yes, the list of exemptions to allow many who cant work from home to do so (excluding hospitality, aviation, entertainment industries)

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

And yet during the first “full lockdown” the roads were empty.

I could take 15 minutes off the journey to Maidstone hospital and see next to no cars, the odd white van and supermarket delivery vehicles only! I went two weeks ago and you wouldn’t have known there was any mention of a work from home if you can directive.

Something has clearly changed...

Things are vastly different now.

More companies on the verge of going under, they need to operate this time.