New strain of Covid?

[TomandJerry]

***Update***

Boris Johnson summoned ministers for an emergency meeting on Friday to discuss how to tackle mounting concerns about the new strain of coronavirus identified in parts of south-east England.

The variant is thought to be more infectious and could trigger possible restrictions including curbs on travel between the south-east, including London, and the rest of the country, according to reports, but ministers insisted that no decisions have been made.



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[clapham_gull]

***Update***

Boris Johnson summoned ministers for an emergency meeting on Friday to discuss how to tackle mounting concerns about the new strain of coronavirus identified in parts of south-east England.

The variant is thought to be more infectious and could trigger possible restrictions including curbs on travel between the south-east, including London, and the rest of the country, according to reports, but ministers insisted that no decisions have been made.

Zero evidence it spreads faster, it’s blatant fear mongering from Matt Hancock, I honestly despise the man.

View attachment 131399

Hopefully one of NSC's resident experts on contagious diseases is correct.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Not saying there isn’t, but it’s bit of a coincidence isn’t it?

More Tier 3 areas
Excuse for lockdown in Jan which they want to do in a way that shifts the blame from them

Drakeford jumped on this as soon as it was announced by Hancock as a reason the firebreak didn’t work

Is this mutation anywhere else?

 

[Nobby]

From a simple analysis of the Governments own data that they release daily

The number of tests performed has increased from three weeks ago and is now up to 400,000 on some days.


Three weeks ago (and throughout the last three months)
Hospital admissions were standing at around 8% of cases detected

Over the last eight days
Hospital admissions are around 13% of cases detected


Four potential reasons for this?

1. Less people who have the virus are being tested now, so the virus is actually far more prevalent than the case data suggests
2. More people who have the virus are now not showing any symptoms at all, so the spread is faster.
3. The latest data is missing many cases detected (as happened in Wales)
4. The virus has become more virulent and is spreading quicker and easier than before

Hopefully it is No 3.

I can’t think of any other potential reasons for this change in the statistics

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

From a simple analysis of the Governments own data that they release daily

The number of tests performed has increased from three weeks ago and is now up to 400,000 on some days.


Three weeks ago (and throughout the last three months)
Hospital admissions were standing at around 8% of cases detected

Over the last eight days
Hospital admissions are around 13% of cases detected


Four potential reasons for this?

1. Less people who have the virus are being tested now, so the virus is actually far more prevalent than the case data suggests
2. More people who have the virus are now not showing any symptoms at all, so the spread is faster.
3. The latest data is missing many cases detected (as happened in Wales)
4. The virus has become more virulent and is spreading quicker and easier than before

Hopefully it is No 3.

I can’t think of any other potential reasons for this change in the statistics

Tim Spector tweeted yesterday that the number of confirmed cases by the govt have exceeded his Zoe app. All seems interlinked.

 

[Paulie Gualtieri]

It's an unknown. Which is why in my opinion they shouldn't have came out and announced it.

It has the potential to cause widespread fear.

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I assumed that was the purpose, to keep people in line over Xmas


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[TomandJerry]

I assumed that was the purpose, to keep people in line over Xmas


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So why not just keep the rules tight? Why loosen them?

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[Paulie Gualtieri]

So why not just keep the rules tight? Why loosen them?

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I sense he didn’t want to be the PM that “cancelled Christmas” took a chance and it hasn’t worked out, if anything it’s put him in a darker light


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[Tom Hark Preston Park]

A conspiracy theorist might suggest that this ever-so-conveniently timed 'new strain of covid' gives hmgov carte blanche to U-turn on it's reckless populist plans for household xmas mingling

 

[highflyer]

A conspiracy theorist might suggest that this ever-so-conveniently timed 'new strain of covid' gives hmgov carte blanche to U-turn on it's reckless populist plans for household xmas mingling

I suspect they are making the most of it, and presenting the 'worst case' assumption - not least as it would be very reckless not to but also as they really need people to take it seriously in the face of incresing fatigue, misinformation and complacency.

But there's no way they'd get away with completey making this up, given the information and data they've released for scrutiny. And given the trends + hospital situation now, there definitely needs to be some quick action, whatever the behaviour of the new strain.

 

[Motogull]

A conspiracy theorist might suggest that this ever-so-conveniently timed 'new strain of covid' gives hmgov carte blanche to U-turn on it's reckless populist plans for household xmas mingling

And those crafty Europeans a chance to shut the borders.

 

[Notters]

A conspiracy theorist might suggest that this ever-so-conveniently timed 'new strain of covid' gives hmgov carte blanche to U-turn on it's reckless populist plans for household xmas mingling

And stops mass brexit protests in the capital.

 

[Motogull]

A conspiracy theorist might suggest that this ever-so-conveniently timed 'new strain of covid' gives hmgov carte blanche to U-turn on it's reckless populist plans for household xmas mingling

And gives the emergency services a bit of a breather on NYE.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

https://www.ft.com/content/538a640b-2b2e-4039-9b11-9749be3fa579

 

[Solid at the back]

https://www.ft.com/content/538a640b-2b2e-4039-9b11-9749be3fa579

Paywall

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Paywall

Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour.
https://www.ft.com/content/538a640b-2b2e-4039-9b11-9749be3fa579

Scientists said the UK government’s drastic action to impose harsh restrictions over Christmas was fully justified by the extraordinary increase in infectiousness displayed by the new variant coronavirus — making it 70 per cent more transmissible than other strains in circulation.

The variant’s most remarkable feature is the number of mutations that have shaped it. Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, said 23 letters of the viral genetic code have changed, many of which are associated with the spike protein that the virus uses to get into human cells.

Coronaviruses do not usually mutate so quickly, typically accumulating about two genetic changes per month.

“This new variant is very concerning, and is unlike anything we have seen so far in the pandemic,” said Jeffrey Barrett, director of the Covid Genomics Initiative at the Wellcome Sanger Institute.

The increased infectivity of the variant is illustrated by the fact that, after appearing in Kent in late September, it was responsible for 28 per cent of infections in London by early November and in the week ending December 9 accounted for 62 per cent.


It appears to have increased the R value — the average number of people to whom someone with Covid-19 passes the infection — by 0.4, which makes the epidemic far harder to control.

“These reports on the transmissibility of the new variant are even more depressing than I had anticipated,” said Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia.

“An increase in R of 0.4 or greater is extremely bad news. During the national lockdown in November the best we could achieve was an R value of somewhere between 0.8 and 1.0 around the UK,” said Prof Hunter. “What this means is that even if we went back to the lockdown it would still not be enough to bring the R value down to less than 1.0.”

The current*vaccines are still*expected to offer*adequate*protection against this strain

François Balloux, director of the UCL Genetics Institute,
But Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer, rejected a suggestion at the Downing Street press conference that this was the worst moment so far in the battle against Covid-19. “This is not the worst moment of the epidemic,” he said. “We have a vaccine being rolled out. There is the prospect in the medium term future that things could be a lot brighter.”

Boris Johnson told the press conference that 350,000 people were given a first dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine in the first two weeks of the programme. Vaccination rates will increase very quickly in the new year if the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency approves the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine by the end of December, as many observers expect.


Daniel Altmann, professor of immunology at Imperial College London said the emergence of the new variant “greatly strengthens the case for all to get vaccinated as soon as possible. The vaccines induce neutralising antibodies to several parts of spike and most of these would be unchanged by the mutations, so the vaccines will still work.”

Scientists at the government’s Porton Down microbiology labs and elsewhere are working hard to understand whether the mutations affect the severity of disease as well as transmissibility. Preliminary indications suggest that it does not have a significant impact on the development of Covid-19 symptoms.

François Balloux, director of the UCL Genetics Institute, told the FT the new variant was likely to have evolved while the virus was infecting a patient with a severely suppressed*immune system.

“This can lead to pretty fast evolution and it probably jumped back into the population,” he said. “I don't think any of the mutations in isolation are concerning. I'd be very surprised if it led to*more*severe disease.”

“It’s also not a*strain that should be able to escape protection provided by immunisation from the current vaccines or prior infection,” Prof Balloux added. “The current*vaccines are still*expected to offer*adequate*protection against this strain.”

 

[Solid at the back]

Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour.
https://www.ft.com/content/538a640b-2b2e-4039-9b11-9749be3fa579

Scientists said the UK government’s drastic action to impose harsh restrictions over Christmas was fully justified by the extraordinary increase in infectiousness displayed by the new variant coronavirus — making it 70 per cent more transmissible than other strains in circulation.

The variant’s most remarkable feature is the number of mutations that have shaped it. Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, said 23 letters of the viral genetic code have changed, many of which are associated with the spike protein that the virus uses to get into human cells.

Coronaviruses do not usually mutate so quickly, typically accumulating about two genetic changes per month.

“This new variant is very concerning, and is unlike anything we have seen so far in the pandemic,” said Jeffrey Barrett, director of the Covid Genomics Initiative at the Wellcome Sanger Institute.

The increased infectivity of the variant is illustrated by the fact that, after appearing in Kent in late September, it was responsible for 28 per cent of infections in London by early November and in the week ending December 9 accounted for 62 per cent.


It appears to have increased the R value — the average number of people to whom someone with Covid-19 passes the infection — by 0.4, which makes the epidemic far harder to control.

“These reports on the transmissibility of the new variant are even more depressing than I had anticipated,” said Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia.

“An increase in R of 0.4 or greater is extremely bad news. During the national lockdown in November the best we could achieve was an R value of somewhere between 0.8 and 1.0 around the UK,” said Prof Hunter. “What this means is that even if we went back to the lockdown it would still not be enough to bring the R value down to less than 1.0.”

The current*vaccines are still*expected to offer*adequate*protection against this strain

François Balloux, director of the UCL Genetics Institute,
But Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer, rejected a suggestion at the Downing Street press conference that this was the worst moment so far in the battle against Covid-19. “This is not the worst moment of the epidemic,” he said. “We have a vaccine being rolled out. There is the prospect in the medium term future that things could be a lot brighter.”

Boris Johnson told the press conference that 350,000 people were given a first dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine in the first two weeks of the programme. Vaccination rates will increase very quickly in the new year if the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency approves the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine by the end of December, as many observers expect.


Daniel Altmann, professor of immunology at Imperial College London said the emergence of the new variant “greatly strengthens the case for all to get vaccinated as soon as possible. The vaccines induce neutralising antibodies to several parts of spike and most of these would be unchanged by the mutations, so the vaccines will still work.”

Scientists at the government’s Porton Down microbiology labs and elsewhere are working hard to understand whether the mutations affect the severity of disease as well as transmissibility. Preliminary indications suggest that it does not have a significant impact on the development of Covid-19 symptoms.

François Balloux, director of the UCL Genetics Institute, told the FT the new variant was likely to have evolved while the virus was infecting a patient with a severely suppressed*immune system.

“This can lead to pretty fast evolution and it probably jumped back into the population,” he said. “I don't think any of the mutations in isolation are concerning. I'd be very surprised if it led to*more*severe disease.”

“It’s also not a*strain that should be able to escape protection provided by immunisation from the current vaccines or prior infection,” Prof Balloux added. “The current*vaccines are still*expected to offer*adequate*protection against this strain.”

Thanks for that. Let's hope they're right when they say they expect current vaccines to still be adequate. Otherwise we are in serious, serious trouble and the consequences of that will be horrifying. I'm not optimistic, this virus is very clever.

 

[Poojah]

Thanks for that. Let's hope they're right when they say they expect current vaccines to still be adequate. Otherwise we are in serious, serious trouble and the consequences of that will be horrifying. I'm not optimistic, this virus is very clever.

Indeed, this is already a deeply concerning development in the pandemic even assuming that it has no impact on our ability to vaccinate people.

The use of language makes me a little nervous, that there is no ‘current’ evidence to suggest that it makes vaccines less effective. That said, the strain has been around since September so you’d have expected a reasonable number of trial participants to have been exposed to it and yet we still appear to have high levels of efficacy.

I should imagine we will know more in the coming days. Let’s just hope that Christmas doesn’t get yet more depressing than it already is.

 

[Mr Banana]

Indeed, this is already a deeply concerning development in the pandemic even assuming that it has no impact on our ability to vaccinate people.

The use of language makes me a little nervous, that there is no ‘current’ evidence to suggest that it makes vaccines less effective. That said, the strain has been around since September so you’d have expected a reasonable number of trial participants to have been exposed to it and yet we still appear to have high levels of efficacy.

I should imagine we will know more in the coming days. Let’s just hope that Christmas doesn’t get yet more depressing than it already is.

the likely result is that the vaccine will need to be updated in 2022

 

[Nobby]

I see that Europe is giving us some early practice for a no deal Brexit