New strain of Covid?

[Deportivo Seagull]

the likely result is that the vaccine will need to be updated in 2022

Every couple of years would be the norm for corona and fLu vaccines.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[Bold Seagull]

Indeed, this is already a deeply concerning development in the pandemic even assuming that it has no impact on our ability to vaccinate people.

The use of language makes me a little nervous, that there is no ‘current’ evidence to suggest that it makes vaccines less effective. That said, the strain has been around since September so you’d have expected a reasonable number of trial participants to have been exposed to it and yet we still appear to have high levels of efficacy.

I should imagine we will know more in the coming days. Let’s just hope that Christmas doesn’t get yet more depressing than it already is.

That’s not how a typical vaccine trial works. The efficacy of the vaccine is established in a lab. The trial tests whether people have a reaction to the vaccine, it doesn’t establish the efficacy because you don’t expose the participants to the virus in a typical vaccine trial.

There are studies planned where participants can be given the virus to test potential vaccines called ‘human challenge’ trials, these are more experimental, have some medical controversy, but it is argued can be done safely and give more insights into the disease.

 

[Poojah]

That’s not how a typical vaccine trial works. The efficacy of the vaccine is established in a lab. The trial tests whether people have a reaction to the vaccine, it doesn’t establish the efficacy because you don’t expose the participants to the virus in a typical vaccine trial.

There are studies planned where participants can be given the virus to test potential vaccines called ‘human challenge’ trials, these are more experimental, have some medical controversy, but it is argued can be done safely and give more insights into the disease.

I certainly don’t purport to be an expert on vaccine trials, so I’ll bow to your better knowledge. However, my thinking was as in line with stats in recent news about the vaccines which stated how many participants had contracted the virus and how many had become seriously ill (the answer, gladly, being very, very few).

Ultimately, my point was that if this new strain is so prevalent AND capable of escaping the effects of vaccines then surely that would have become apparent as vaccine trial participants became sick in meaningful numbers.

 

[The Wizard]

Until I see the actual presented scientific evidence behind this ‘new strain’ I’m extremely sceptical, they’ve known about this new strain since early September and only now are they making all these claims about it being ‘up to 77% more infectious’ etc

I don’t see why people in government are allowed to make statements with total guess work statements like UP TO or ‘as high as’, we need to see actual factual science not statements that sound like credit card deals. Are you seriously telling me that this new strain has been known about since then yet Boris has made himself look like a donut again by having to massively backtrack on his 5 days of Christmas just 2 days after he announced it?

Something just isn’t right.

 

[Pretty Plnk Fairy]

Does this make it a sovereign strain?

Regards

DF

 

[Is it PotG?]

Does this make it a sovereign strain?

Regards

DF

No.

 

[Bozza]

Until I see the actual presented scientific evidence behind this ‘new strain’ I’m extremely sceptical, they’ve known about this new strain since early September and only now are they making all these claims about it being ‘up to 77% more infectious’ etc

I don’t see why people in government are allowed to make statements with total guess work statements like UP TO or ‘as high as’, we need to see actual factual science not statements that sound like credit card deals. Are you seriously telling me that this new strain has been known about since then yet Boris has made himself look like a donut again by having to massively backtrack on his 5 days of Christmas just 2 days after he announced it?

Something just isn’t right.

There have been 4,000 known mutations/strains of this virus identified over the last ten months.

Mutating is what viruses do.

As with the other c3,999 strains to date, this particular variant just pretty much looked like any other and was no particular cause for concern.

It is only over the last couple of weeks or so that scientists and researchers were able to make what seems to be the link between rapid growth of cases in sone areas and this new strain.

The government have acted up of this quickly, as seems highly appropriate.

Fortunately they don’t feel the need to satisfy someone on a football message board, particularly someone who seems to have disbelieved much to do with this pandemic.

 

[Bozza]

That’s not how a typical vaccine trial works. The efficacy of the vaccine is established in a lab. The trial tests whether people have a reaction to the vaccine, it doesn’t establish the efficacy because you don’t expose the participants to the virus in a typical vaccine trial.

There are studies planned where participants can be given the virus to test potential vaccines called ‘human challenge’ trials, these are more experimental, have some medical controversy, but it is argued can be done safely and give more insights into the disease.

Not sure that’s right.

Part of the trials involves essentially waiting for a number of trial participants to catch the virus before then in minding the study to see which of them had received the target vaccine and which had a placebo.

It was often said over recent months that one bit of good news, so to speak, of the virus spread was that trial participants would more likely to be exposed to it meaning more rapid trial results.

 

[The Wizard]

There have been 4,000 known mutations/strains of this virus identified over the last ten months.

Mutating is what viruses do.

As with the other c3,999 strains to date, this particular variant just pretty much looked like any other and was no particular cause for concern.

It is only over the last couple of weeks or so that scientists and researchers were able to make what seems to be the link between rapid growth of cases in sone areas and this new strain.

The government have acted up of this quickly, as seems highly appropriate.

Fortunately they don’t feel the need to satisfy someone on a football message board, particularly someone who seems to have disbelieved much to do with this pandemic.

They don’t know if it’s more deadly
They don’t know if it’s equally deadly
They don’t know how much more infectious it is and so have to use guesswork language

Yes you’re correct they’ve acted so quickly, that just days before this MUTANT strain became such a massive issue our PM and scientific advisors agreed to allowing a large loosening of restrictions over the Christmas period, then 2 days after that this ‘new strain’ became massive news. Interesting timing.

I don’t know why you even reply to my posts, your condescending tone has been quite remarkable throughout this, anyone who questions anything gets spoken to like a child on the naughty step.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Not sure that’s right.

Part of the trials involves essentially waiting for a number of trial participants to catch the virus before then in minding the study to see which of them had received the target vaccine and which had a placebo.

It was often said over recent months that one bit of good news, so to speak, of the virus spread was that trial participants would more likely to be exposed to it meaning more rapid trial results.

Yes of course, sorry, I mean you don’t expose them to the virus as part of the trial, the trial tests the safety of the vaccine. Once back out in the general population, you do then track them to monitor if they get it or not.

 

[Billy the Fish]

That’s not how a typical vaccine trial works. The efficacy of the vaccine is established in a lab. The trial tests whether people have a reaction to the vaccine, it doesn’t establish the efficacy because you don’t expose the participants to the virus in a typical vaccine trial.

There are studies planned where participants can be given the virus to test potential vaccines called ‘human challenge’ trials, these are more experimental, have some medical controversy, but it is argued can be done safely and give more insights into the disease.

Another vote for "pretty sure this is wrong". Think you're talking about stage 1 trials. Stage 3 calculates efficiency.

For argument sake, they give 100 people the vaccine and 100 people a placebo. If 10 people in the placebo group catch covid and only 1 person in the vaccine group catches covid it's 90% efficient? Someone cleverer than me can correct the maths, but that's the jist.

 

[beorhthelm]

Until I see the actual presented scientific evidence behind this ‘new strain’ I’m extremely sceptical, they’ve known about this new strain since early September and only now are they making all these claims about it being ‘up to 77% more infectious’ etc

I don’t see why people in government are allowed to make statements with total guess work statements like UP TO or ‘as high as’, we need to see actual factual science not statements that sound like credit card deals. Are you seriously telling me that this new strain has been known about since then yet Boris has made himself look like a donut again by having to massively backtrack on his 5 days of Christmas just 2 days after he announced it?

Something just isn’t right.

Briefing paper from the scientists. they did not know about this in September, they found something later in samples from in September, then grew their knowledge over weeks, before coming to a conclusion.

 

[Bozza]

They don’t know if it’s more deadly
They don’t know if it’s equally deadly

Indeed and they have repeatedly categorically stated that.

However, if this strain is significantly more transmissible, then it does mean with no other changes in behaviour that more people will catch it, more people will end up in hospital and more people will die.

They don’t know how much more infectious it is and so have to use guesswork language

Johnson and Hancock don't sit in a lab all evening working this stuff out. When it comes to virology specifics, they will pretty much pass on what they are told by those who do. If the boys and girls at Porton Down believe that this strain is up to 70% more transmissible, surely the government have to share that information as background as to why they are enacting rapid changes.

Yes you’re correct they’ve acted so quickly, that just days before this MUTANT strain became such a massive issue our PM and scientific advisors agreed to allowing a large loosening of restrictions over the Christmas period, then 2 days after that this ‘new strain’ became massive news. Interesting timing.

As I said, from your posts I recall reading, you've disbelieved almost everything about a virus that has been attributed to the deaths of over 1.6m people worldwide, a number that is growing daily.

A questioning mind is a healthy thing, but I simply can not comprehend those who know essentially nothing about all of this, repeatedly throwing mud that those that know a whole lot more and are having to repeatedly make massive decisions that affect tens of millions of lives.

I don’t know why you even reply to my posts, your condescending tone has been quite remarkable throughout this, anyone who questions anything gets spoken to like a child on the naughty step.

I woke up. I picked up my phone. I opened Tapatalk, This thread was the most recent one posted to. I opened it. Yours was the most recent post. I replied.

But if I want to reply to someone I will. I think I've earned that right over the last 20 years.

 

[Bozza]

Briefing paper from the scientists. they did not know about this in September, they found something later in samples from in September, then grew their knowledge over weeks, before coming to a conclusion.

Cheers - good find.

Growth rate from genomic data:which suggest a growth rate o fVUI-202012/01 that that is 71% (95%CI: 67%-75%) higher than other variants.​

How dare the government use wishy-washy made-up guesses.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/metr...st-fast-spreading-mutant-strain-13782209/amp/

Positive news

 

[Poojah]

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/metr...st-fast-spreading-mutant-strain-13782209/amp/

Positive news

Advance warning: depressing post

That is positive, however this latest development causes me deep, deep concern. The consensus from people far, far more intelligent than me seems to be that as it stands, the current mutation will still respond to vaccines, however further mutation could still lead to 'vaccine escape' whereby this is no longer the case.

What we now appear to have in our wake is a mutant virus which is, and this is no longer hyperbole, completely out of control. Estimates suggest that the mutation increases the R rate by at least 0.4, and given that the original lockdown was never able to bring down R any lower than 0.7, we may have no way in the short-term of getting the genie back in the bottle.

Vaccinations will assist with this, but here's the kicker. By Sunday's count, cases have doubled in the space of a week. With Christmas on the horizon and the high likelihood of many people ignoring the latest restrictions, it's hard to see anything but an explosion of cases over the next couple of weeks. We run the risk of having uncontrollably high levels of virus in the community, which in turn means a greater opportunity for the virus to mutate out of the grasp of the vaccines we have at our disposal.

This is going to become a race against time to get large swathes of the population immunised, and if we lose that battle we will likely face a significant setback and prolongation of the pandemic in this country.

I fear the next few months could sadly turn out to be by far the bleakest of this horrible period so far. As someone who has regularly contributed to the good news thread, I hope I am wrong.

 

[sparkie]

Advance warning: depressing post

That is positive, however this latest development causes me deep, deep concern. The consensus from people far, far more intelligent than me seems to be that as it stands, the current mutation will still respond to vaccines, however further mutation could still lead to 'vaccine escape' whereby this is no longer the case.

What we now appear to have in our wake is a mutant virus which is, and this is no longer hyperbole, completely out of control. Estimates suggest that the mutation increases the R rate by at least 0.4, and given that the original lockdown was never able to bring down R any lower than 0.7, we may have no way in the short-term of getting the genie back in the bottle.

Vaccinations will assist with this, but here's the kicker. By Sunday's count, cases have doubled in the space of a week. With Christmas on the horizon and the high likelihood of many people ignoring the latest restrictions, it's hard to see anything but an explosion of cases over the next couple of weeks. We run the risk of having uncontrollably high levels of virus in the community, which in turn means a greater opportunity for the virus to mutate out of the grasp of the vaccines we have at our disposal.

This is going to become a race against time to get large swathes of the population immunised, and if we lose that battle we will likely face a significant setback and prolongation of the pandemic in this country.

I fear the next few months could sadly turn out to be by far the bleakest of this horrible period so far. As someone who has regularly contributed to the good news thread, I hope I am wrong.

The slight good news is that we have 3+ different vaccines that are not identical. In particular Astra Zenica uses a different approach to Pfizer and Moderna.

So hopefully at least 1 of them is still able to 'hold the line'.

 

[e77]

Also if the virus is less widely spread it has less chance to mutate.

 

[macbeth]

Advance warning: depressing post

That is positive, however this latest development causes me deep, deep concern. The consensus from people far, far more intelligent than me seems to be that as it stands, the current mutation will still respond to vaccines, however further mutation could still lead to 'vaccine escape' whereby this is no longer the case.

What we now appear to have in our wake is a mutant virus which is, and this is no longer hyperbole, completely out of control. Estimates suggest that the mutation increases the R rate by at least 0.4, and given that the original lockdown was never able to bring down R any lower than 0.7, we may have no way in the short-term of getting the genie back in the bottle.

Vaccinations will assist with this, but here's the kicker. By Sunday's count, cases have doubled in the space of a week. With Christmas on the horizon and the high likelihood of many people ignoring the latest restrictions, it's hard to see anything but an explosion of cases over the next couple of weeks. We run the risk of having uncontrollably high levels of virus in the community, which in turn means a greater opportunity for the virus to mutate out of the grasp of the vaccines we have at our disposal.

This is going to become a race against time to get large swathes of the population immunised, and if we lose that battle we will likely face a significant setback and prolongation of the pandemic in this country.

I fear the next few months could sadly turn out to be by far the bleakest of this horrible period so far. As someone who has regularly contributed to the good news thread, I hope I am wrong.

I know this is in a very different vain to what I posted the other day, but having slept on it for 48 hours, here's a bit of positivity, for balance: Wishful thinking perhaps but I don't think it's a simple as that, experts are saying it could take years before the virus changes enough that it doesn't respond to vaccines.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/coronavirus-britain-variant.html

It doesn't sounds like a case of one random mutation and all of a sudden the vaccines are useless, it sounds like you'll see the virus drift further and further away from it's initial form until the vaccines no longer work. Furthermore, (and I can't find my source for this at the moment) I remember reading somewhere that the variant likely developed in a person with a severely compromised immune system. Surely, as the vulnerable are vaccinate, such dramatic mutations become less and less possible. The chance is still very much there to break the lockdown cycle come spring, even if these next two months or so are going to be particularly rough.

Very good thread here (although very sciencey) on why it's not time to panic, but instead plan how we will update the vaccines when the need arises (and the vaccine tech we have is VERY adaptable):

https://twitter.com/deeptabhattacha/status/1340381203623411712?s=20

Hold the nerve. The immediacy of the situation has changed, but the roadmap out of the pandemic, as far as I'm concerned, has not.

 

[Motogull]

I've read on more than one occasion that if 'we all stand still for two weeks, the virus will die off.

Two weeks of proper self isolating lockdown - gotta be worth a go hasn't it?