Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

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Fat Boy Fat

New member
Aug 21, 2020
1,077

I thought it was a reasonable article, until I read this bit, then questioned how factual it was...

"I’m really, really worried,” said Pat Smith, an elderly resident who had ventured to the post office on the edge of town but was going no further. “We’ve been lucky so far in Cornwall with Covid but it’s really hit us now. I was going to take a walk down the beach but I don’t think I’ll bother. It’s mad busy. I’ve had my jabs but I’m taking no chances.”

Come on, admit it, where did they find an elderly resident who used that phrase, might as well have added Dude on for good measure!
 


crodonilson

He/Him
Jan 17, 2005
14,062
Lyme Regis


Kinky Gerbil

Im The Scatman
NSC Patron
Jul 16, 2003
58,792
hassocks


loz

Well-known member
Apr 27, 2009
2,482
W.Sussex
It might just be me and the people I know, But we are all but back to normal and if you ask about masks and social distancing most just shrug their shoulders and say " just got to carry on as normal its not going away" it is what it is..

I suppose if it wasnt for the wall to wall media hype would we even care if 100 odd people die a day of say the normal annual flu ? ( which covid is not BTW ) or would we just carry on ?

It just seems folks want to get back to normal and except that they might or might not get ill...and I am including people who are right up there in the danger zone as well. ( My Mum and Mum in law and father in law)

I dont mean this to sound as bad as it reads either :)
 




Fat Boy Fat

New member
Aug 21, 2020
1,077
It might just be me and the people I know, But we are all but back to normal and if you ask about masks and social distancing most just shrug their shoulders and say " just got to carry on as normal its not going away" it is what it is..

I suppose if it wasnt for the wall to wall media hype would we even care if 100 odd people die a day of say the normal annual flu ? ( which covid is not BTW ) or would we just carry on ?

It just seems folks want to get back to normal and except that they might or might not get ill...and I am including people who are right up there in the danger zone as well. ( My Mum and Mum in law and father in law)

I dont mean this to sound as bad as it reads either :)

Well you made a damned good try at making it sound as bad as it reads :smile:

Seriously though, I agree with you. Most people have had enough and won't be bothered, until it affects them or one of their family... and will then be bleating that not enough was done.

Let people get on with their lives, but show respect to those who still want to be protected and cautious!
 


dsr-burnley

Well-known member
Aug 15, 2014
2,625
It might just be me and the people I know, But we are all but back to normal and if you ask about masks and social distancing most just shrug their shoulders and say " just got to carry on as normal its not going away" it is what it is..

I suppose if it wasnt for the wall to wall media hype would we even care if 100 odd people die a day of say the normal annual flu ? ( which covid is not BTW ) or would we just carry on ?

It just seems folks want to get back to normal and except that they might or might not get ill...and I am including people who are right up there in the danger zone as well. ( My Mum and Mum in law and father in law)

I dont mean this to sound as bad as it reads either :)
One of the difficulties is that from the evidence on death certificates, pre-existing conditions make very little difference to coronavirus. Virtually everyone who dies of coronavirus dies primarily of coronavirus, whereas the majority who die of flu die primarily because of something else - dementia being the most common, I think.

The latest week for which there is analysis is 13th August. In that week:

571 people died with coronavirus mentioned on their death certificate, of which 512 had it as the primary cause. That's 90%.

Compare with flu and pneumonia. 1,463 died with flu and pneumonia, but only 260 as a primary cause. 18%. Or if all respiratory diseases apart from coronavirus are counted, 2,973 total, 940 as primary cause (32%).

The conclusion is clear - that flu, pneumonia, and other respiratory diseases are often the secondary cause of death because they are carrying off the old, the already-sick, the worn out. I don't think this will surprise anyone. Most of us will have known people who got old and tired and eventually died, and flu or pneumonia was the trigger but not the primary cause. The odd point is that coronavirus doesn't (if death certificate stats are correct) do that. By a vast majority, it is only carrying off the healthy. Either among old people coronavirus infects the healthy but not the sick, or else when it does infect the old it kills the healthy and does not kill the sick. Either seems a bit unlikely.

Can we be sure the death certificate signatories are not over-emphasising coronavirus as the ultimate cause of death?
 


dsr-burnley

Well-known member
Aug 15, 2014
2,625
It just seems folks want to get back to normal and except that they might or might not get ill...and I am including people who are right up there in the danger zone as well. ( My Mum and Mum in law and father in law)
My mother gets out and about when she can as well. Which, sadly, is a lot less than she could when this lot started.

I suspect a lot of people have concluded, consciously or subconsciously, that all that can be done has been done, and now the choice has become live in total isolation for ever or else get out and live the rest of their lives as they will. If you know you have a limited time left and your physical condition is going to get progressively worse, the benefits of staying in isolation are not all they might seem to the younger generation.
 




Fat Boy Fat

New member
Aug 21, 2020
1,077
One of the difficulties is that from the evidence on death certificates, pre-existing conditions make very little difference to coronavirus. Virtually everyone who dies of coronavirus dies primarily of coronavirus, whereas the majority who die of flu die primarily because of something else - dementia being the most common, I think.

The latest week for which there is analysis is 13th August. In that week:

571 people died with coronavirus mentioned on their death certificate, of which 512 had it as the primary cause. That's 90%.

Compare with flu and pneumonia. 1,463 died with flu and pneumonia, but only 260 as a primary cause. 18%. Or if all respiratory diseases apart from coronavirus are counted, 2,973 total, 940 as primary cause (32%).

The conclusion is clear - that flu, pneumonia, and other respiratory diseases are often the secondary cause of death because they are carrying off the old, the already-sick, the worn out. I don't think this will surprise anyone. Most of us will have known people who got old and tired and eventually died, and flu or pneumonia was the trigger but not the primary cause. The odd point is that coronavirus doesn't (if death certificate stats are correct) do that. By a vast majority, it is only carrying off the healthy. Either among old people coronavirus infects the healthy but not the sick, or else when it does infect the old it kills the healthy and does not kill the sick. Either seems a bit unlikely.

Can we be sure the death certificate signatories are not over-emphasising coronavirus as the ultimate cause of death?

Excuse the pun, but this argument has been done to death now.

I understand your point of view re Covid, but please don't keep raking over the same coals again and again!

https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n352
 


BLOCK F

Well-known member
Feb 26, 2009
6,723
Wife has just tested positive on a lateral flow test, but I am negative at the moment.However, I shall be exceedingly lucky if I don’t get it. We’ve both been double jabbed.
We are off to get PCR’d later this morning��
 


Hugo Rune

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Feb 23, 2012
23,674
Brighton
Wife has just tested positive on a lateral flow test, but I am negative at the moment.However, I shall be exceedingly lucky if I don’t get it. We’ve both been double jabbed.
We are off to get PCR’d later this morning

Good luck. Hope you’re both feeling ok.
 




Hugo Rune

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Feb 23, 2012
23,674
Brighton
This is a huge blow for Anti Vaxxers world wide:

“A conservative radio host from Florida who criticised coronavirus vaccination efforts – and called himself “Mr Anti-Vax” – before contracting Covid-19 himself has died, his station said on Saturday.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...adio-host-anti-vaxxer-dies-covid-marc-bernier

Would it be too ****ish to suggest I wouldn’t mind Piers Corbyn being next?
 


BLOCK F

Well-known member
Feb 26, 2009
6,723
Good luck. Hope you’re both feeling ok.

Hugo, thanks for your kind wishes.
I feel fine, but my wife is feeling a bit ropey, very bunged up and with a tight chest.
We have had our PCR’s and await the results.
We have been so careful, but heyho this strain is a bugger.::down:
 


LamieRobertson

Not awoke
Feb 3, 2008
48,419
SHOREHAM BY SEA
Wife has just tested positive on a lateral flow test, but I am negative at the moment.However, I shall be exceedingly lucky if I don’t get it. We’ve both been double jabbed.
We are off to get PCR’d later this morning��

I’ve known a few couple where one has been tested positive and not the other….so it’s not inevitable you will.
 






crodonilson

He/Him
Jan 17, 2005
14,062
Lyme Regis
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-58383606

Scottish cases doubling weekly, it won't take many more weeks of doubling before they get in serious trouble. Prof Jason Leitch suggesting some areas of society may need to be 'switched off' to get on top of case rates. Expect similar in England as schools head back this week.
 


Solid at the back

Well-known member
Sep 1, 2010
2,732
Glorious Shoreham by Sea


crodonilson

He/Him
Jan 17, 2005
14,062
Lyme Regis
What do you suggest?

People start doing the basics of wearing masks in all public settings, social distancing, keeping to their own household bubbles if possible and regularly test themselves. All these will help keep cases down and relieve stress on the NHS and if we all play our part I am confident we can stop the government having to reverse back and make restrictions to some areas of society in Autumn and Winter.
 




dsr-burnley

Well-known member
Aug 15, 2014
2,625
People start doing the basics of wearing masks in all public settings, social distancing, keeping to their own household bubbles if possible and regularly test themselves. All these will help keep cases down and relieve stress on the NHS and if we all play our part I am confident we can stop the government having to reverse back and make restrictions to some areas of society in Autumn and Winter.
If the old people are forced back into their lonely homes and told not to socialise, I suppose they're likely to die of something else instead. Which would be good for the statisitics.

Does there ever come a time when someone who is (say) 88 years old and showing her age, should start to enjoy the time she has left even if that time has a marginally increased risk of death? A person over the age of 85 has approximately a 14% chance of dying before this time next year. If you add in all the covid deaths (147 out of 3,919 last week, in the over 85s), even based on the unrealistic assumption that covid affects the healthy old and the tired and ill old in the same proportions, that risk of death rises to 14.4%. Is it sensible to spend the next year in hiding with a 14% chance that it's your last year on earth, because by doing so you can save the 0.4% chance that covid will kill you? A lot of people don't think so.

Remember that for old people, the year to come is almost certainly the best year of the rest of their life. They don't want to throw it away on the tiny chance that coronavirus might kill them. When your chance of death is already 1 in 7, the covid threat of 1 in 250 is a little less terrifying than it may sound.
 


Weststander

Well-known member
Aug 25, 2011
69,273
Withdean area
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-58383606

Scottish cases doubling weekly, it won't take many more weeks of doubling before they get in serious trouble. Prof Jason Leitch suggesting some areas of society may need to be 'switched off' to get on top of case rates. Expect similar in England as schools head back this week.

That is true, Scotland’s case rate is running at 2 to 3 times that of England and Wales.

But not reflecting in deaths.

Sturgeon made plain her answer to getting the case rate down:

About a third of Scotland’s new cases were in the under-19s age group.

The First Minister said that she hopes the JCVI will recommend the vaccination for all 12- to 15-year-olds soon.

Sturgeon said on Friday: “If I was making a plea to the JCVI, and it’s not for me to tell them what decision to reach and they’ve got to do that on the basis of the evidence, but please make it quickly.”
 


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